Week Four NFL Picks

Wednesday was the first week of classes at the U, so my output may drop off somewhat in the immediate future. Who knows, maybe it won't. I do have Fridays off, so I may use Fridays to put out more posts. Tomorrow I think I'll put up a post on the MLB playoffs (thanks to Rudee for the suggestion.) Baseball's my first love and I haven't gotten a chance to write about much yet, so I'm looking forward to it. I may do another post on what I would like to see from the Mariners this off-season.

It's looking increasingly like Mike Hargrove will be back for next season. Ugh. I'm not looking forward to that; Mike Hargrove has no business coaching a major league team at this point in his career. He's terrible with young players, is one of the worst abusers of the sacrifice bunt in baseball, his mismanagement of the bullpen is astounding, he's overly reliant on "proven veterans", etc. I could go on and on, and frankly I don't really want to, because I find it to be very depressing to dwell upon. I will say this, I think that the decision to retain Hargrove makes me severely pessimistic about the odds of a Mariners World Series team while the present front office group is in place. They've set a precedent of settling for less and focusing on putting a marketable team on the field, rather than a team that actually wins games.

Fuck it. M's are winning it all next year behind the co-Cy Young winners, Felix Hernandez and Daisuke Matsuzaka. On to the picks for week four:

Indianapolis (-9) @ New York Jets

This game is between two teams that will apparently attempt to go through this season without playing defense. There's not a team in the league that can win against Indy in a shootout, and I don't think that the Jets will be the team to test this theory. Indy's defense has been pretty beat up, and I do think the Jets should be able to score points through the air. I like Indy and the Over (46.5). Indy may be able to put up 47 points single-handedly.

San Diego (-2.5) @ Baltimore

I'd say this game's the undercard to this week's marquee matchup, Seattle-Chicago. I look at this one as a matchup between two great defenses, but San Diego also has a very good offense, while Baltimore's is merely run-of-the-mill. I don't think that Baltimore will be able to pitch a shutout; San Diego will be able to score at least a couple touchdowns (hell, the Browns put up 14 points against Baltimore last week), while Baltimore's struggle to put the ball in the endzone this year worries me. San Diego

Minnesota (+1) @ Buffalo

There were a couple lines this week that I thought were just weird looking. This was one of them. Does anyone think that Buffalo's a better team than Minnesota? I know that the home-field advantage is factored into the line, which essentially says that Minnesota's the better team on a neutral field, but Buffalo's exhibited an ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in two of three games this season. I actually like this Buffalo team, they're entertaining, have a lot of youth, could be a playoff team in a couple years, maybe sooner with the weak division they're playing in, but I'm gonna go with Minnesota here.

Dallas (-9.5) @ Tennessee

This was one of two games this week that took me the longest to figure out, along with Jacksonville-Washington. I don't debate that Dallas is the better team, but should they be nearly ten points better, on the road? The other issue here is the whole Terrell Owens fiasco. I don't often put much importance in issues like chemistry, the effect of off-field issues, etc., but there's no way that this isn't a huge distraction. As bad as Tennessee has looked, I think that they're improving; I thought they'd be an improved team in the preseason, until their quarterback fiasco began, but Collins/Young learn the offense a little better each week, and I don't think they're defense will keep playing this poorly. Tennessee

San Francisco (+7) @ Kansas City

Here's another weird line: No team with Damon Huard at quarterback should be laying seven points under any circumstance, home-field advantage or not. San Francisco's defense has been porous this year, but I think the overly-conservative Kansas City offense will make up for it. San Fran's exhibited an ability to put up points this season, and I think they'll at least keep this game close. San Francisco

New Orleans (+7.5) @ Carolina

Dear New Orleans,

I'm sorry for thinking that your team sucks real bad. Your defense looks frisky, and Deuce McAllister looks like he cares again with Reggie Bush as his decoy. Marques Colston was a great find. Sorry.

Sincerely,

CSG

This is a game between two teams that have done the exact opposite of their expectations. Carolina was handed the Super Bowl before the season started, but forgot to show up for their first two games, then squeaked by Tampa. New Orleans was supposed to be bad, but instead has rode a wave of magnanimous energy from across the country to a 3-0 record. The historical percentage of 3-0 teams that go to the playoffs? 65.7%. There's a big difference between a 2-0 and a 3-0 team. New Orleans

Arizona (+7) @ Atlanta

Atlanta worries me, because everything that could go wrong for them against New Orleans did. That was like a worst case scenario game for them. The offense was bad, the defense looked much worse than the first two games, and their special teams continued to be atrocious, something that tends to be overlooked when a team is winning games, but just looks ugly when a team's losing. Still, I was rider #1 on the Arizona schadenfreude bandwagon; in fact, I may be the conductor. Arizona is currently part of an unelite group of teams that is winless against the spread; I predict they'll stay there. Atlanta

Miami (-4) @ Houston

Here's another one of the confusing lines. Should Miami be laying points against anyone? I know that Houston is horrid, but I don't know if Miami could even score points on Houston at this point. I swear that everyone watching Miami play has their hands over their eyes and cotton stuffed deep into their ears, then during commercial breaks read the Sports Illustrated NFL preview edition. I might look bad with this one, but I'm going with Houston

Detroit (+5.5) @ St. Louis

I don't think St. Louis could have gotten a more ideal schedule to start the season. I don't trust either of these offenses to do much in this game, and I think St. Louis will shut down Detroit on defense. St. Louis, and I love the Under(43.5).

New England (+6) @ Cincinnati

I'm surprised this spread is this close after last Sunday's performances by each team. Cincy is still being should short on how good they are, while the New England dynasty may well be on life support. Cincinnati

Jacksonville (-2.5) @ Washington

Along with Dallas-Tennesee, this was the game that gave me the most difficulty. I liked Washington a lot preseason, but I haven't been impressed by them at all this year, even last week against Houston. I think it may ultimately hurt them to have the heat off of Mark Brunell for at least a couple more weeks after going 24/27 against Houston while throwing nothing but screen passes and dump-offs to running backs. I love the Jacksonville defense, but they're offense looks anemic. I think they'll find a way to score some points this week, though, and they should be able to shut Washington down. Jacksonville

Cleveland (-2.5) @ Oakland

I'm amazed that this line is only 2.5 points. Cleveland nearly beat Baltimore, who demolished Oakland. Cleveland's strength is their defense, which isn't saying much, but should be enough to stop Oakland. Oakland's strength is also defense, and Cleveland's weakness is their offense, so I don't anticipate a lot of scoring. Cleveland and the Under (34).

Seattle (+3.5) @ Chicago

Last week's Chicago-Minnesota game gave me a lot of confidence about this game. Minnesota has a good defense, but not as good as Seattle's, and they gave Rex Grossman fits all game. We've seen that as Grossman goes, Chicago goes. When he was on against Detroit and Green Bay, they looked unstoppable. Not so much against Minnesota. I think Seattle will be able to move the ball, and they have the benefit of using a lot of offensive sets that teams haven't had much time to scout. Plus, Shaun Alexander is praying for the Hawks, and he and the Big Man are real close. Seattle

Green Bay (+11) @ Philadelphia

Not a lot to say about this one. Philly's pretty good, Green Bay's pretty bad. I think there should be a lot of points scored, even though Green Bay doesn't have a great offense, due to the injuries in the Philadelphia defense. I like Philadelphia and the Over (47.5).

That's the picks. As always, put questions, comments, suggestions, slander in the comments. My best bets would be these games:

Indy (-9)
Philly (-11)
Cleveland (-2.5)
Minnesota (+1)

Green Bay-Philly over 47.5
Cleveland-Oakland under 34
Detroit-St. Louis under 43.5
NY Jets-Indy over 46.5

Week 3 NFL Picks, Reviewed

I was 7-6-1 for week 3, was 2-2 on my best bets, and hit three of four over/unders. That Chicago game was a killer. Chicago at -3.5 won by three points, and the score was over by half a point. I'm 25-20-1 overall. Here were my misses:

Buffalo (-5.5)
Miami (-11)
Chicago (-3.5)
Carolina (-3)
Baltimore (-6.5)
Atlanta (-4)

Jacksonville-Indy was the push.

I think the only real mistake I made this week was taking Miami at -11. Laying 11 points on a team that has looked as bad as Miami this season is moronic, regardless of how bad Tennessee has been. I'm willing to stand behind the Buffalo pick; They really outplayed the Jets all game, yet couldn't get the ball into the endzone. I think that's unlikely to continue in the future with a good as Willis McGahee has looked so far. The Jets seem to be getting by with smoke and mirrors. The Chicago game was frustrating. It was difficult to tell whether they're not as good as I thought, or if Minnesota is better than I thought. I thought that game made it apparent that Rex Grossman cannot struggle this year if Chicago wants to be an elite team. He just didn't look good in that game, his throws were all over the place, the interceptions were terrible, etc. Chicago was lucky to get out of that one with a win. I thought that the Carolina-Tampa game confirms that Carolina is not in the upper echelon of this league. Even with Steve Smith back and looking like he was nearly 100%, they didn't beat Tampa like they should have. Their defense is no where close to as good as some people thought it would be, and their poor running game holds them back on offense. Tampa probably should have won that game outright.

Baltimore's offense is fairly worrisome. As it currently stands, I think they're in the second tier of AFC teams. Here's who I would include in the first tier, the teams I think stand a strong chance of being the AFC representative in the Super Bowl: Cincinnati, San Diego, Indianapolis. That's it. Even Indy is suspect because their defense has been awful. The second tier is pretty crowded: Baltimore, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Denver and New England. My issue with all of these teams so far has been their offenses. Unless your defense is historically good, such as the '85 Bears or 2000 Ravens, you can't win without a least a solid offense, and I don't see any of these teams as having historically good defenses. And yes, I do think New England is just the eighth-best team in the AFC. If it wasn't for their division, they would not be a playoff team.

Atlanta also took a step back with their Monday night loss. Evil Michael Vick reared his head in that game, spraying passes all over the place, skipping balls to receivers, forcing passes to Alge Crumpler in triple coverage, and running himself into sacks. His success running the ball the first two weeks may actually be detrimental to him, as he seems to be a player who buys into his own hype and seems to think he's invincible when he has success doing stuff that should only work in video games. At the same time, a lot of credit should be given to New Orleans' defense. They looked really good, fast and surprisingly cohesive, considering how their three starting linebackers have been there for about a month. So yes, I am upgrading my opinion of the Saints. They are not terrible. They may also have the benefit of a unique home-field advantage all season. It'll be hard to pick against them at home this season.

This was a frustrating week of games for me. I know I was over .500, but I think I could've easily gotten 9 or 10 wins with a few breaks. I was right on with a number of my predictions, especially in the Seattle, St. Louis, Philly and Denver games. Oh well. There's always week four. Here's the breakdown from the week three games.

Home vs. Spread: 5-8-1. 20-25-1 for the season. Home teams are just 21-25 for the season. Something to be noted.

Favorites vs. Spread: 3-10-1. 18-27-1 for the season. Favorites 27-19 overall. It's beginning to look like that when in doubt, go with road underdogs.

NFC/AFC vs. Spread: 1-0. Washington vs. Houston was only inter-conference game of the week. NFC is 4-3 against the spread in interconference games, 4-3 overall.

I should have my picks for the week up either tomorrow evening or sometime Friday. Don't hesitate to post comments, anonymous criticism, etc.

Sunday Posts, Pt. 2

3:55-Ok, Matt Hasselbeck just threw a pick-6, and I'm starting to get a little worried. The Giants have scored 21 points in the first 5 and a half minutes of the fourth quarter. Weird stat line for Hasselbeck today: 33 attempts, five touchdowns, three interceptions. Seahawks can't get anything going to run out the clock. Giants are an odd team. They don't seem to have a pass rush and they're pretty bad in coverage, but they're great against the run. Eli Manning may be the greatest quarterback of all time against a prevent defense. I don't understand why you'd even go into the prevent against him. He's much, much worse when pressured, and the biggest knock against him is that he's wildly inaccurate. Why would you give him wide open receivers to throw to. Alright, not going to worry anymore about that one. Hawks still have it locked up. I'm loving Mack Strong, certified running threat.

Philly's got their game locked up, and that game's gone way over. Four minutes left in St. Louis-Arizona, with the Rams up two points. That one looks like a lock to hit the under at 16-14 with the o/u at 44.5. Cleveland-Baltimore's the only one that looks like a loss, though Baltimore might be able to eke out a win. They're in field goal range down two with under 30 seconds to go.

3:24-These games are going very well for me. I thought the Seahawks would win fairly easily, but this is ridiculous. Watching a Manning suffer is one of life's great joys. I'm loving the Seahawks defense this year. The impact of Ken Hamlin's return has been greatly underestimated so far. The Eagles are spanking the Niners; they had almost 350 yards of offense at the half. The only question is whether they hit the over on that game; only ten points to go. Rams are up on the Cards, 16-7, and in line to go well under. The Ravens have been my only disappointment thus far, looking bad on offense, and getting torched by the immortal combo of Chaz Frye and Braylon Edwards. Oh well. Can't win them all.

Afternoon games are Seahawks-Giants, Rams-Cardinals, Eagles-Niners, and Ravens-Browns. I have the Seahawks and Eagles as best bets, giving 3.5 and 6 points, respectively. I also recommended the over for the Eagles and the under for the Rams-Cardinals. Seahawks are already up 14-0. I'm loving it. Each team's first drive ended in an interception. Eli Manning is a little bitch. Philly's already up 14-0, too, with McNabb throwing two first quarter TD's. Arizona's up 7-0 in the first, and Baltimore's up 3-0, early in the second.

Sunday posts, pt. one

1:20-Early games went weirdly. 3-4-1 overall, Indy-Jacksonville pushing. A bunch of late comebacks. I don't know what happened in the Chicago game, but it ended up as the worst possible score for me, 19-16 Chicago. Chicago misses the cover by a half point, and they go over by a half point. Absolutely excruciating. Carolina couldn't cover, either, but won on a last second field goal. I hate the Dolphins. Cincy came through, though, and so did Washington and Green Bay. There should be a special place in hell for favorites who don't cover, but still win the game after playing terribly.

12:52-Jacksonville's cut the lead to 7. I'm going to pissed if this ends up a push. Minnesota's up four, one minute to go. I can't believe that one. I hit the under, though. Green Bay up 31-24. Tampa up 24-23. Washington 31-15. Jets up 28-20. How the fuck do you get 490 yards of offense and only score 20 points? This kind of shit can only happen to Buffalo. Miami up 13-10 against Tennessee. Cincinnati up 8, less than a minute to go. Pittsburgh with the ball and driving.

12:15-Pittsburgh's gone up 17-14 after a big interception throw by Carson Palmer. Indy's holding their 7 point lead. A suddenly rejuvenated Tampa Bay has gone up 21-20. Jets up 21-10 in a game they have no business winning.

11:43-Indy takes the ball to start the second half and marches down the field for a touchdown. Impressive half-time adjustments. Pittsburgh takes the ball and drives for a field goal, 14-10. Mark Brunell is currently 20-20 against Houston. I think I could throw for 250 yards and a couple TD's against them, giving a proper o-line.

11:20-Most games approaching half-time or already there. Cincinnati adds another TD to go up 14-7, with Roethlisberger having a rough half: 5/12, 1 INT. No one's playing defense in the Detroit game, whatsoever. Almost all of Green Bay's offense is through the air, as I predicted. Buffalo has dominated the Jets, but are somehow only up three points with the Jets in the red zone. I have no clue how that is happening. Jacksonville-Indy are tied, but Jacksonville is dominating. Indy can't pass and can't run, and Jacksonville is running all over them on offense. Houston might have the worst defense ever. Washington has 299 yards of offense. I think they're enjoying having a healthy Clinton Portis. The resurrected corpse of Mark Brunell is 14/14 for 191 yards. Maybe Mario Williams can share some of his potential with the rest of the team. Chris Simms had another terrible half, 5/13 with a pick. Too bad their back-up is Bruce Gradkowski. Carolina's up 20-7, Steve Smith's played well, and there's been a huge positive effect on their other receivers and running game. Minnesota's up 6-3 on Chicago, and looking pretty good. Chicago is also shooting themselves in the foot with 8 penalties and a Rex Grossman pick. It's only 7-3, but Tennessee is killing Miami. This is sad.

10:59-Indy and Cincy have both tied it up. Peyton Manning somehow has only 16 yard passing with 5:30 to go till the half. Green Bay is up three while simultaneously making Jon Kitna look like the second coming. Miami is losing to Tennessee, 7-3. Wow. Jets and Bills are tied. Washington's up a touchdown, Vikes-Bears are tied 3-3. Carolina up 17-7. The Dolphins have gone from playoff team to gun-in-the-mouth depressing in three weeks flat.

10:34-Jags-Colts and Steelers-Bengals at the end of the first quarter, Jags and Steelers both up a touchdown. Both games are really similar; Jags and Steelers have both had the ball almost the entire first quarter, Colts and Bengals haven't been able to do anything when they have the ball. Buffalo and Green Bay both up a touchdown, Chicago-Minnesota and Washington-Houston are tied, Miami's up three, and Carolina's up ten.

Puyallup Fair: Last Days

Sunday is finally here, and I've got to admit, I've been waiting for this day all week. College football is nice, especially with THE University of Washington looking downright frisky for the first time in years, but it's just an appetizer, and in terms of appetizers, it's a good one, but not a great one; think mozzarella sticks vs. calamari. I like college football, but I hate all the bullshit that surrounds it, all the Touchdown Jesus phony tradition, the profits involved at the big schools, which are given a perfectly legal venue to exploit mostly poor kids, who then act like they give a damn about the sanctity of amateur athletics when they're exposed for recruiting violations, players receiving compensation, etc. I know I'm ranting, but give me the pro game any day.

There's eight early games today, with the two big ones being Jacksonville-Indy and Cincy-Pittsburgh. I'm pretty damn excited for both these games. There's also Chicago-Minnesota, Green Bay-Detroit, NYJ-Buffalo, Washington-Houston, Tennesee-Miami, and Carolina-Tampa. A couple clunkers there, but the two big ones more than make up for them. Everything starting in about ten minutes.

Today's the last day of the Puyallup. It's been interesting, to say the least, but I think it's been a good experience. I'll be glad to get back to my normal routine of school/general drunken slothfulness, and I won't miss working 85-90 hour weeks, but I'll walk any with some money and a unique experience. I also lost some weight because there was nothing for me to eat. How about that?

I'll be doing posts throughout the day if I'm not horribly busy, which is a distinct possibility. Drop in and say hi, offer some insight, observations, etc. If you want. I'm not forcing you, as one of the woeful inadequacies of the Internet is the inability to use the threat of immediate physical harm in my favor. C'est la vie.

Week Three NFL Picks

Alright, so I had a big post up and just about ready to go, went to save it when I went to get some food, and it just so happened to be when Blogger was down for site maintenance, and I lost my whole faw-king post. Yeah, I'm well stropy about that. Anyway, I'm going to offer the Readers' Digest abridged version of what I had.

One of the stock boys in the warehouse, Chris (who I described in this earlier post in the entry at 10:58), got led out in cuffs earlier today. Apparently he had a warrant out for something, I have no clue what exactly, but it was major enough that they arrested him in Puyallup for something that happened in Lewis County. Even though I have had my fun at Chris's expense, he was a pretty good guy, all in all. He's 23, worked hard, never knew his father, has a young kid about to start school, was working to pay his child support. He's no saint, but there's honor in taking care of your kid and not being a complete piece of shit. So, Lewis County, cut the dude some slack, there's worse people out there. Unless he's a child molester. Then, by all means, throw the book at him.

So with that insight into the seamy underbelly of the Puyallup Fair, let's get on to the picks.

New York Jets (+5.5) @ Buffalo

Ok, so here's two teams who've been surprisingly not horrible. Buffalo's looked real good on defense, and Chad Pennington's looked back to normal after rotator cuff surgery. I think that Buffalo's strengths, their pass rush and pass defense in general, matches up well with New York's strength, their passing offense. The Jets are very reliant on yards after the catch because Pennington lacks the arm strength to get the ball down the field, and Buffalo's defensive speed should keep the YAC to a minimum. The Jets can't run the ball at all, and Buffalo should be able to put a couple good drives together to put up some points behind Willis McGahee. Buffalo

Cincinnati (+2) @ Pittsburgh

Cincy got hit hard by injuries last week, while Pittsburgh was beat by Jacksonville at their own game. I think Cincy is the better team here, and even with their beat-up receiving corps, I think they can score against Pittsburgh. Cincy also has an underrated defense, and Pittsburgh's offense isn't really in sync yet, with their diminished running game and Roethlisberger's tummy ache. Cincinnati

Jacksonville (+7) @ Indianapolis

Jacksonville looked great against Pittsburgh on Monday night, but I don't think they're quite at the level of the elite AFC teams, Indy, San Diego, and Cincinnati. They shut down Pittsburgh's offense, but I don't think Pittsburgh has a great offense, at least not yet. Also, I don't think Jacksonville's offense can keep up with Indy's in the RCA Dome. This should be an interesting game, but I think Indianapolis wins it.

Tennessee (+11) @ Miami

Stay away from this game if you're using real money. Both teams have looked terrible so far; Tennessee doesn't have a quarterback who knows their offense, Daunte Culpepper's trying to set a record for most untouched fumbles in a season, Miami can't get the ball to Ronnie Brown enough, Tennessee can't play defense. I think Miami should be able to put up points against the horrendous Tennessee defense, and I don't know if Tennessee will be able to score much. Miami

Washington (-4) @ Houston

Here's two teams that have been bad so far. Washington's been about equally poor on offense and defense, while Houston's actually been pretty good on offense while being awful on defense, probably the worst in the league. Washington should have Clinton Portis for this game, which should help them a lot. Hopefully they'll also remember to get the ball to Chris Cooley. It's going to be another long season for Houston if their defense is this bad again. Washington

Chicago (-3.5) @ Minnesota

This is being treated as a showdown between division rivals, but I think it's a case of a contender against a pretender. Minnesota is solid as long as Brad Johnson is healthy, but Chicago is at entirely different level as a team. They've got the best defense and special teams combination in the league, plus a offense that can finally move the ball and put up points. Minnesota has squeaked past Washington and Carolina without Steve Smith. They just aren't a great team, while Chicago might be. Chicago

Carolina (-3) @ Tampa Bay

Here's another game I would avoid. Carolina should have Steve Smith back, but you don't know if he's going to be the same player. Most of his talent is tied to his ability to gain yards after the catch. If he doesn't have the same quickness and agility as normal, he won't be nearly as effective. That said, just having him on the field should be enough of a distraction to help out their struggling offense. What makes me want to stay away from this game is a combination of several things: Everyone's going to be leaning toward Carolina, which is never a good sign, Tampa Bay can't possibly keep playing this poorly, and they're at home. I'm still going to go with Carolina, but an upset wouldn't surprise me.

Green Bay (+6.5) @ Detroit

I think these are two teams that are about equally bad. This spread is too large. Green Bay's strength, their passing offense, matches up well with Detroit's weakness, passing defense. I also don't feel very confident in Detroit's ability to put up enough points on offense to justify a spread like this. I could see Green Bay win this outright. Green Bay

Baltimore (-6.5) @ Cleveland

Baltimore is due for a let-down game, but I don't think that this is the week. The Cleveland offense is terrible, and Baltimore will absolutely eat them alive. It'll be difficult for Cleveland to reach double digits. I don't think Baltimore will have a problem putting together a couple scoring drives, and a defensive touchdown wouldn't surprise me. I think this'll be an easy cover. Baltimore

St. Louis (+4.5) @ Arizona

I would just like to say that I think both just aren't very good. St. Louis can't get the ball into the endzone, with 24 of their 31 points coming via field goal. They're like last year's Cardinals in that regard (that's not really a team you want to be mentioned alongside historically.) Arizona has the same problems on offense that they have every year --- they can't block anyone, as Edgerrin James' 3.1 yards per carry and 8 sacks of Kurt Warner through two games will testify to. Without the blocking to get their supposedly high-flying offense off the ground, Arizona won't be able to score too many points, and St. Louis has looked like they have a decent defense this year, though it remains to be seen if that will hold up outside of St. Louis, as they have traditionally been much worse defensively on the road. I think this game may end up low scoring, and I see St. Louis keeping it close and possibly coming away with a victory. St. Louis

New York Giants (+3.5) @ Seattle

I got a question about this game in the comment thread for the week two review post from my friend Rudee. Here's how I responded:

"People will remember the Giants comeback from last week, but they forget that the Giants got absolutely killed for three quarters last week, then had a bunch of crazy plays go their way, recovered a bunch of fumbles, got the benefit of a couple calls/moronic penalties by the Eagles, essentially a lot of lucky plays ended up going their way, plays that don't necessarily reflect their true skill level. Also, the Eagles couldn't run the ball at all to run out the clock because Andy Reid kept calling the same run into the middle for zero yards. I don't see the Seahawks running into this problem if we're ahead. The Hawks have a better defense than the Eagles, in my opinion, and I don't see them getting burnt so bad if they can't get a pass rush. I also think that the Hawks will be able to pass on the Giants all day long because the Giants have been terrible against the pass so far. I think that the Seahawks win, and that the game won't be as close as most people expect."

Because I wrote this morning, I think I'm going to stick with this. The Giants pass defense looks awful to start the season, and they haven't been able to pressure the quarterback like they could last year. Osi Umenyiora has been surprisingly quiet, while Michael Strahan and LaVar Arrington are showing the effects of age and injury, respectively. (LaVar Arrington is also incredibly stupid. Just wanted to get that in as a possible reason for his decline in play.) I'm interested to see how much the Hawks use four receiver sets this week with Deion Branch available, as this would seem to be a great method to exploit the thin Giants secondary. I think they'll use three and four receiver sets almost exclusively due to the injuries to Jerramy Stevens and Itula Mili. The Hawks will have Pork Chop Womack out for about six weeks, which may actually be a blessing in disguise, as Womack as looked like one of the weaker members of their line so far, and it gets Chris Spencer, future stud, into the game. Seahawks

Philadelphia (-6) @ San Francisco

The fact that this line is as low as it is says a lot about the improvements San Francisco appears to have made this season. I like seeing San Francisco have a competitive team because when I was younger they were the non-Seahawks team I liked the most, as I was a big Steve Young fan. I haven't liked them since they entered the same division as the Hawks, but I think having more competitive teams makes the NFL more enjoyable in general. That said, the Niners haven't played anyone yet, with the first two games against Arizona and St. Louis. I think Philly will be able to exploit San Francisco's weak defense, and I don't think this game will be very close. I think the Eagles of the first three quarters of last week will be the team that decides to show up, rather than the fumbling, penalty-prone and overly-conservative play-callers of the fourth quarter and overtime. Philadelphia

Denver (+7) @ New England

Ooh, a rematch from last year's playoffs. What intrigue. What's too bad is that neither one of these teams has looked particularly good so far. New England's been mediocre, but Denver's been God-awful. I know I said it last week, but I think Denver's a solid team still, and I think that Jake Plummer will bounce back. (If I say it enough, it might come true.) I like Denver in this one. And if they don't cover, I'll never pick them again.

Oakland (+10) @ Bye

Ok, that's a cheap shot. But I think Andrew Walter's just threw his second pick against the bye week.

Atlanta (-4) @ New Orleans

This is the week when all my New Orleans bashing comes through, as they are exposed when they finally play a good team. Atlanta should be able to run on New Orleans all day after running over Carolina and Tampa. Vick plays better on turf, and no one has been able to stop the spread option look that Atlanta's sporting, which is a fucking brilliant use of Mike Vick. He's never been used right in his career. He's one of the best athletes in the league, and he's got an inaccurate cannon for an arm. Keep the ball in his hands as much as possible. It never made sense to put him in a system where he needs to make short, accurate passes as quickly as possible. Would you put Peyton Manning in the wishbone? NO. So don't put Vick in the west-coast offense. This may be the year he becomes the quarterback everyone thought he was two years ago. Atlanta

So that's my picks. My reviews on about the first half of the games ended up somewhat truncated due to losing all that work when I went to eat, so if anyone wants further explanations or rationales for my picks, feel free to ask in the comments. I said I'd offer my best bets up also, and here they are:

Chicago (-3.5)
Seattle (-3)
Philadelphia (-6)
Atlanta (-4)

I also like the under in Chicago-Minnesota (34.5), the over on Philadelphia-San Francisco (42), the under on St. Louis-Arizona (44.5), and the under on Atlanta-New Orleans (42). Happy gambling!

Week two NFL Picks Review

Week two saw me go 8-8 overall, and I currently sit at 18-14 for the season. Here were my misses:

Washington (+6)
Pittsburgh (-1.5)
Denver (-10.5)
Green Bay (+2)
Philadelphia (-3)
Detroit (+9)
Miami (-6.5)
Oakland (+12)

Looking at these games, I'm would say that I'm most surprised by the Denver, Green Bay, Detroit, and Oakland results. I just didn't expect Denver to come out and play that poorly on offense in their home opener against Kansas City, a defense that isn't exactly highly regarded. Maybe KC will be better on D with the hiring of Herm Edwards, a more defensive-minded coach, but most of that performance lies squarely on Denver. Denver was able to run for 145 yards, but one must remember that the game went nearly five quarters, so the raw data is slightly exaggerated. If they'd been able to have any semblance of a pass attack, they would have been able to run much more effectively. I know that I wrote that Denver would be stupid to bench Jake Plummer, but that was assuming that he would play at his established level of performance. One has to wonder if all the calls for Jay Cutler are getting to him and affecting his performance, which, paradoxically, would be the only situation in which I would advocate pulling him. Either way, it looks like Denver is not in a good spot.

Green Bay, Detroit and Oakland also surprised me, not because I thought they would be any good, but because I didn't think they would be this bad. I thought the Detroit and Oakland spreads were entirely too high, because of the relative strength of each team's defense, and the (supposedly) mediocre offenses they were facing. I didn't expect either Detroit or Oakland to win, but I did expect them to cover. Unfortunately, I also didn't expect either the Lion or Raider offenses to prove so inept. In addition, no one expected Chicago to put up 34 points on a Lions defense after they held the Hawks to nine. If I could re-do, these, I would probably go with Chicago, given what we know about their offense, but given the same situation, I would probably go with Oakland again. Twelve points is a huge spread, they have a pretty solid defense, Baltimore is a mediocre offense, and over the course of the season, no offense can possibly be as bad as the Raiders have so far. Can it? Green Bay's situation is just sad. I thought for sure they would win last week outright, but their offense just isn't very good, when you take into account the horrendous New Orleans defense. I was pretty damn close though when I predicted 350 and 3 TD's for Favre. The 340 and 3 he did put up was fairly lackluster though, as it took him 55 attempts, due to an inability by Green Bay to run the ball with any effectiveness.

I know that it sounds like I'm not giving New Orleans any respect, but here's the truth: CSG doesn't care about black people. OK, not really. They may be a little better than I thought pre-season, but any team in the league would look good or even dominant if they had faced Cleveland and Green Bay in the first two weeks. New Orleans squeaked by both teams. They do deserve some credit for winning two road games, which is an accomplishment for anyone, but they're probably the worst 2-0 team the league has seen in some time. Looking at their schedule the rest of the way out, the only games I see them being competitive in are the two games against Tampa Bay and the game at home against San Francisco. Their schedule the rest of the way is actually pretty brutal: two against Atlanta and Carolina, the entire NFC East, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati. That should be rough. I'm still pretty comfortable in my pre-season prediction for them to be under six wins.

Washington and Miami are the teams that I found most disappointing. I wasn't incredibly confident in either pick, but I was expecting a lot more from both teams. I won't harp on it, because I already have, but Washington would be much better off starting Jason Campbell, and I also had the feeling that Clinton Portis would play. Not quite sure what's going on there.

Miami was single-handedly sunk by Daunte Culpepper. Now, I wasn't one the people predicting big things from Miami this season (I'm looking at you, SI), but I thought they'd be solid. Right now, I think they'd be better off without Culpepper starting. We take for granted the recovery and rehabilitation process for professional athletes due to how advanced our sports medicine technologies have become, but the injury Culpepper suffered last year was pretty devestating, and too many people were assuming that he would be back at full strength, playing like a slightly less mobile version of his 2004 self. The way he has played makes it pretty clear that he is still adjusting to his new skill set, post-injury, and that he will need some time to get used to his new immobility.

On a slightly related note, I would say that under bets in the Buffalo games should be good bets for at least the next couple weeks, before perception catches up with their performance. They've got a good defense, and an offense built around ball control and hiding J.P. Losman. They're not going to score a lot of points, or give up a lot, in my opinion. Watch out for big spreads involving them for this reason.

As for Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, nothing about their performances really worried me. I actually thought that Philly's performance in the first three quarters proved that they are for real, before they had the football equivalent of losing ten straight coin flips happen to them. The perception of Pittsburgh should come back down to an earthly level after the loss to Jacksonville and Miami not being as good as people thought they were. Yeah, it's usually not a good idea to hand the Super Bowl to a team that was a six seed last year after week one. Yeah, I'm surprised about that just as much as you.

I haven't had a chance to look at the lines for this week's games yet, but I probably will later tonight. Not sure yet when I'll put up my picks for this week. I think I'll do a couple different things this week. I'm still going to make my picks for each game, but I'm also going to add a "best bets" thing, the games I would feel most comfortable putting actual money on. I think I'll also try to take a look at the over/under and money lines and see if I can unearth some gems there. On to the week two breakdown:

Home vs. Spread: 11-5. Home teams bounce back in a big way. 15-17 for the season. Home teams 17-15 overall.

Favorites vs. Spread: 10-6. Also 15-17 for the season. Favorites 19-13 overall.

AFC/NFC vs. Spread: No interconference games this week. 3-3 for the season. 3-3 overall.

Monday Afternoon Tellustrator

Thoughts on Sunday's games while watching highlights at the bar in Freddy's Club Casino...

The Minnesota-Carolina game featured the best and worst special-team plays I've seen in a while. The Minnesota fake field goal to tie the game was as perfectly executed as could be, great timing, too. On the other hand, the Carolina punt return cross field lateral fumble was something straight out of the elementary school playground playbook. Completely inexplicable at that point of the game.

After seeing the Giants comeback, I'm still convinced the Eagles are the better team. The comeback required an incredibly remarkable series of random events to go in the Giants favor, and they all did. There's not much the Eagles can do when something like that happens. Their inability to run out the clock in the 4th quarter was the only thing I found to be particularly troubling. It'll be interesting to see how they respond to the Jevon Kearse injury, though. There pass rush has been much better than last year's anemic performance.

I haven't seen this many blocked kicks in my entire life as I have through two weeks of this season. This has been absolutely insane.

The Jets comeback against the Patriots also felt fluky. That wouldn't have been close without a couple huge run after the catch plays, especially Cotchery's crazy play.

Please, do not allow the phrase "walk-off touchdown pass" to enter the vernacular.

I wish more people could understand how surreal it is to see closed captioning attempt to approximate what Chris Berman is saying.

The Redskins still need to pull Mark Brunell. His second half performance against a prevent defense inflated his numbers, which still weren't very good.

That is all.

Sunday Post, pt. 3

Dear Mr. Gibbs,

As a senile old man I know that you have an attachment to the grizzled veteran types, but this is ridiculous. Mark Brunell has attempted 14 first half passes for 48 yards. With the sacks, you've got 29 yards passing in the first half. You would have been better off calling 17 fullback dives than passing on those plays. He is single handedly killing you. Please put Jason Campbell in the game, and install him as your starter for the rest of the season. Maybe he struggles for a couple games, but in the long run it's a whole lot better than Mark Brunell's decidely veteran form of immobility and inaccuracy. There's a whole lot of mediocrity in the NFC, and your division is wide open. Please, don't make me look like an idiot for thinking your team would win a playoff berth. Please, think about the gamblers and the prognosticators, and put in Jason Campbell.

Yours truly,

CSG

Sunday Post, pt. 2

4:26-All games completed. I went 4-1 on the afternoon slate. Definitely happy with that. 8-6 for the day, with the Sunday night game coming up in 45 minutes, and the Monday night game tomorrow. Here's some thoughts on the afternoon games:

It's amazing how much better San Francisco looks this year. Frank Gore is a solid RB, and Alex Smith looks decent, definitely improved over that Tim Rattay, Ken Dorsey, et al. mix they were running out for the last few years, before last year. They've usually had a servicable defense, but last year's offense was maybe the worst NFL offense in memory. I'm not going to get ahead of myself because I think the Rams are really bad, maybe worse than San Fran, but this team should be competitive this year, in a losing sort of way.

San Diego will run away with the AFC west. Kansas City and Denver have both looked terrible, and Oakland is the worst team in the league. I thought this would be one of the more competitive divisions in the league, but those three teams will be looking up at San Diego all year long.

Seahawks have been really underwhelming. I don't put too much emphasis on week one, but I thought they'd come out and really dominate against Arizona, but they couldn't seem to put them away all game long. I'm really pleased by the defense, but the offense just isn't cutting it, especially the line play. I'm going to be really worried if they don't start to gel soon.

New England better show me something soon. They're lucky to be in a division that has looked pretty bad thus far. They've squeaked by Buffalo and the Jets, nearly blowing both games. New England is looking a lot like a 9-7 team that will win that division, and then lose in the first round of the playoffs.

4:17-San Fran wins 20-13, Hawks 21-10, San Diego up 40-7, Denver wins 9-6 in OT. Fuck you, Denver. If you're not going to cover, don't win at all. New England will cover barring a hail mary, or Eric Mangini revealing his enormous gambling problem by kicking a field goal to cover.

4:01-Seahawks struggling to hold onto an eleven-point lead. SF's up seven, KC and Denver in OT, NE up seven and driving. San Diego has lost their bid for back-to-back shutouts, but they're up 26 in the forth. For some reason I have a bad feeling about the NE game.

3:12-I'm just really amazed to see Alex Smith performing well. I really hope he succeeds as an NFL quarterback, so that one day a biopic will be made about him called "Manly Deeds, Womanly Hands." And the Broncos managed to kick a field goal. As much as they're killing me, it is fun to watch a Mike Shanahan team suck real bad. Smug prick. San Diego has held Tennesse to 47 total yards. Tennessee's quarterbacks have combined to go a Leafian 3/15, 30 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT. What the fuck has happened to the Hawks? They've ran 6 plays for -19 yards in the third quarter. Jebus.

3:04-Shaun Alexander and Edgerrin James look really mediocre. I do not to want to see that from Shaun. I predicted it from James, though. San Francisco has taken the lead on St. Louis, 17-10. All five games are going well for me, except for the fucking Broncos.

2:42-Games at half time. Seahawks up two TD's, Kansas City up 3-0, St. Louis up 10-3, San Diego up 20-0, New England up 17-0. Four shutouts at the half. No fucking clue what the Broncos are doing. I keep thinking of the episode of the Simpsons when Hank Scorpio gives Homer the Denver Broncos as a gift for helping him achieve his goal of global domination. The way the Broncos looked on Homer's front lawn, inept and disorganized, that's how they look today. The way Homer groans and says "The Denver Broncos", that's what I keep hearing in my head. The Chargers have let Phillip Rivers open it up, and he's responded well. Remember, you heard it hear first, San Diego Chargers in the Super Bowl...

1:59-Giants absolutely stole that game from the Eagles. Unbelievable. San Diego and New England up ten each. Kansas City-Denver is scoreless, second quarter. Seahawks still up two TD's. I think that the Seahawks will establish themselves as an elite defense this year, not quite the same level as Chicago's, but surprisingly close. They've held the Cardinals juggernaut to 49 total yards.

1:34-Seahawks score again, 49-yard TD pass, Hasselbeck to D-Jax. So much for the bad knee, he has 113 yards receiving in the first quarter. Somewhere, Willie "Flipper" Anderson breaks into tears for no apparent reason.

1:22-Seahawks and Niners marched down the field on their first drives. Hawks TD, Niners a FG. Giants-Eagles is going to OT, somehow. 17 unanswered fourth quarter points by the Giants. Minnesota driving in OT, into Carolina territory.

Second batch of games starting, Seattle-Arizona, St. Louis-San Francisco, Denver-Kansas City, Tennessee-San Diego, New England-New York Jets. Minnesota-Carolina going to OT. Looks like Giants-Eagles will be a fucking push. Green Bay is within a touchdown. I'm currently 3-4-1, waiting for Minnesota-Carolina, if Green Bay doesn't do something. Told you this would be a tough week. A lot of football still to be played, though.

Sunday posts

1:00-Second batch of games about to start up. Carolina-Minnesota is the only game still close. Minnesota has the ball in a tie game with 2 minutes to go. New Orleans scored two quick TD's to put Green Bay away. Giants just got within three points.

12:43-The focus of the talking heads this next week will be on how bad Miami looked, but Buffalo may have a surprising defense. They're young and fast, and they gave New England a ton of problems in the first half last week.

Minnesota and Green Bay have tied up their games. Cleveland's got it down to ten. I'm going to be pissed if they hang around and cover. I would love if Oakland could get a cheap TD to cover though. That's a problem with picking favorites with double-digit spreads. If a good team doesn't run up the score to pad stats, ala Peyton Manning and Indianapolis, a shitty team can hang around in a game that isn't at all close and get a cheap cover at the end, something that is just infuriating.

I'm really interested to see if Rex Grossman is for real against a solid team. If he's even above-average, then the Bears are an elite team with that defense. It's too bad that he is such an injury caveat. At least they have Griese this year, instead of drunken Kyle Orton.

12:19-Scratch Andrew Walters semi-competency. Oakland might not score an offensive touchdown this year. They just gave up a safety to go down 15. Their defense is actually looking pretty good, but their offense redefines ineptitude. The only question remaining is who's after Walter, Tui or Jeff George?

I'm not sold on Baltimore's defense. They're going to have to stop a real NFL offense before I'm a believer.

Carolina's really struggling to move the ball without Steve Smith. DeShaun Foster still sucks.

Tampa's going to bench Chris Simms soon. He looks terrible. Ron Mexico and Warrick Dunn are both over 100 yards.

11:54-I missed this, but apparently Aaron Brooks is injured, and Oakland has brought in Andrew Walters, who looks semi-competent. I don't think I'm quite ready for the Aaron Brooks era to end. That crashing noise you just heard was the Miami Dolphins Superbowl bandwagon careening off a cliff. They're down 13-0 to Buffalo, late third quarter. That's the quickest bandwagon calamity since Arizona's of last year. Philly is now up 24-7 on the Giants. I feel sorry for the Giants. They've got a good team, but a killer schedule. Detroit's scored finally. I don't think Atlanta even needs to throw the ball. They just just go to a Wing-T and get it over with. Last thoughts: I think something terrible happened on the Vikings sex cruise last year, something unspeakably horrible. That's the only way to explain the quarterback formerly known as Daunte Culpepper. This is just sad. When do the calls for Joey Harrington start?

11:43-Philly adds a field goal, New Orleans a TD, Baltimore a TD, all games to the half.

11:24-Early games all nearing halftime. Atlanta, Chicago, Cincy, and Indy up by double digits. Green Bay up six, Buffalo up three, Carolina up four, Philly by a touchdown, and Baltimore up six and driving. Chicago looks really fucking good, but I think they may also be a difficult team to read because of their schedule/division.

10:32-The Green Bay-New Orleans game feels like one of those games where Brett Favre goes for about 350 yards and 3 TD's, and leaves the field to a standing ovation, followed by a week of Madden, Joe Buck, Peter King, Joe Thiesmann, et al., fellating him in word, both verbal and written, saying how he still has something left in the tank, how Green Bay might be a sleeper in the NFC North with him at the helm, etc., to then have Favre come out next week and throw 3 horrid interceptions across his body into triple coverage. In fact, I know this will happen, and I plan on enjoying it. Why? Because I'm not a good person. In other news, it looks like Ron Mexico might run for about 200 yards on Tampa. I like when talking heads say that Tampa will be able to contain Vick because they have in the past, as if roster turnover and the effects of aging are non-existent in the NFL.

10:21-Indy leads Houston 14-0 with 8:17 to go in the first quarter. At their current pace, Indy should win about 115-0. I think this might actually happen. Green Bay's up 10-0 already, Giants up 7-0 with Philly in the red zone, and Chicago and Cincinnati are both up 7-0 and driving.

Every Day Should be Sunday

Salutations, loyal readers. I've been looking forward to this day all week. Nine NFL games starting at the 10 am PST time slot. Thank Jebus for creating the left coast, in all his infinite wisdom and magnanimity. I'll try to drop throughout the day with comments, etc. even though I'm going to be pretty busy here in Carnieland. Anyway, I'm just using this post as an excuse to post this picture of Dave Wannstedt. Seriously, did he have a stroke or something? It looks like the right half of his face is paralyzed, including his moustache. Or did he have to shave his moustache for some reason, and then the University of Pittsburgh A/V club had to add it in Photoshop, due to popular demand?

(Update: I've decided that Wannstedt looks like he's in one of those ridiculous interview pieces on Conan where they have a picture of, I don't know, Saddam Huisein, with just his mouth moving for the entirety of the interview.)

Week Two NFL Picks

Week Two can be be a difficult time to pick NFL games. I'm not just saying this to cover my ass when I fuck up every game this week; it really is hard to pick early season games. Any view you have of the teams is just a small snapshot that can be very misleading; great teams can look bad, pretenders can look like contenders, it's just the nature of dealing with a very small sample size. The best way to look at an early season slate is probably to stick with your preseason thoughts on each team, tempered slightly by one's impression of week one performances. Don't get suckered into thinking an average team is great because they dominated someone in week one. In 2003 New England opened the year in Buffalo and got shut out 31-0. They went 17-1 the rest of the season to win the Super Bowl. Buffalo ended up 6-10. Week one can be misleading. With that in mind, on to the picks. Lines courtesy of USA Today.

Oakland (+12) @ Baltimore

Let's look at this game as a case study in why one shouldn't invest too much in week one performance. Baltimore played the most dominant game of the week, going into Tampa and shuting out a playoff team from last season. Oakland played as poorly as any team in the league at home against San Diego, in the spotlight of Monday night football, no less. If you look at this as the best team in the league against the worst, you're going to go with Baltimore. The problem with this logic though, is that neither team has played at their true level yet. Baltimore is not that good, and Oakland is not that bad. Baltimore scored twenty points last week on offense, not a bad total, but not great either, and Oakland may have a pretty good defense, roughly in line with Tampa Bay's. If you assume a similar offensive performance by Baltimore, combined with the fact that Oakland most likely won't get shut out again, and that Baltimore most likely will not score a defensive touchdown, it becomes highly dubious to put money on Baltimore giving twelve points. Oakland

Houston (+13.5) @ Indianapolis

Indianapolis did not play very well against in the Manning Bowl, yet still managed to beat a good team. Expect them to bounce back this week at home against Houston, the team that had the worst defense by VOA in week one, except for...Indianapolis. It'll be interesting to see how the Indy defense performs this season, as the defensive improvements they made between 2005 and 2004 were the reason the Colts were the best team in the NFL during last year's regular season. You might see a lot of scoring in this one. Indianapolis

Cleveland (+10) @ Cincinnati

Cincinnati stomped Kansas City on the road pretty thoroughly, while Cleveland looked bad against New Orleans. I would expect more of the same in this one. I'm actually surprised this spread isn't larger. Cincinnati should be able to really give Pittsburgh a challenge this year, while Cleveland doesn't look like they're good at anything. I wonder if any of the Cleveland fans will decide to bring out their dirty brown towels in this battle for Ohio. Cincinnati

Buffalo (+6.5) @ Miami

I'm going to go with Miami on this one, but who knows? Buffalo gave New England a ton of problems in the first half last week, and probably should of won that game. My suspicion is that they were playing over their heads, but J.P. Losman looked like a real-life NFL quarterback, Willis McGahee is looking like a stud, and their defense really had New England confused. Not a lot of confidence on this one. I could see Buffalo win it, and I could see them get blown out. I'm leaning toward a let down game and a blown out, with Miami playing much better than they did against Pittsburgh.

Detroit (+9) @ Chicago

Chicago turned in one of the more dominant performances in the league in their shutout of Green Bay at Lambeau Field. What was most surprising about their performance was the play of their offense. My opinion is that the Chicago offense regresses this week against a Detroit defense that held the Seahawks, a vastly superior offensive team to Chicago, to just nine points. I could see this be a very low scoring game; Chicago has the best defense in the league while Detroit looks like they may have a very good defense. Nine points seems like too high of a spread. Detroit

Carolina (-1.5) @ Minnesota

Carolina was the most disappointing team in week one, getting absolutely ran over by Atlanta. You know that was a sad Sunday at the Sports Illustrated offices as their perennial pre-season Super Bowl winner sucked real bad without Steve Smith. Smith is questionable this week, and Jake Delhomme better hope he's back, because Delhomme looked absolutely lost without him. Their run game sucks as long as DeShaun Foster is their running back, and he's still starting this week. Minnesota, with all bets off if Brad Johnson is injured.

New York Giants (+3) @ Philadelphia

It'll be interesting to see what this game tells us about the Giants offense/Colts defense. The Giants moved the ball at will against Indy, but it's entirely possible that the Colts can't stop anyone. I do think the Giants offense will be very good this year, and it'll be interesting to see what happens in this one. This will be a game with a ton of offense that should be a very competitive. I'm going to go with Philadelphia at home, but I think this'll be close.

Tampa Bay (+5.5) @ Atlanta

I'm not really sure where to go with this one. Atlanta ran over what is supposed to be a very good Carolina defense, which leads me to believe they can run on Tampa. Still, I expect Tampa to bounce back after playing horribly against Baltimore. There's no way that Chris Simms has that many balls batted down at the line again this week, is there? I still don't like Tampa's line situation. I've got to go with Atlanta.

New Orleans (-2) @ Green Bay

This is how far Green Bay has dropped off: They're a home underdog against one of the three worst teams in the NFC. Green Bay was awful last week, against Chicago, but I know the Chicago Bears, and New Orleans is no Chicago. Green Bay, in Brett Favre's last hurrah.

St. Louis (-3) @ San Francisco

St. Louis beat a very good Denver team last week, but they're also a team with a notorious home/road split on both offense and defense. San Francisco resumed being an NFL team last week after taking last season off. Alex Smith, despite his child-like hands, even looked like he may not be the worst quarterback drafted since Ryan Leaf. How about that? I think St. Louis is due for a let down this week. San Francisco

Arizona (+7) @ Seattle

There is no possible scenario in which Seattle loses this game. First home game after a Super Bowl run? Double bonus if it rains. Seattle

New England (-5.5) @ New York Jets

I don't know about this one. I could see New England bounce back and dominate, and I could see the Jets, who are pretty bad, even with Pennington, win this one. New England really scares me with their wide receiver situation. I feel like this may be the decision that exposes Bill Belichick for his hubris. I realize they've got some good tight ends, but I think you need at least one legitimate one or two receiver to be successful. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt, but they scare the hell out of me. New England. Stay the hell away from this one if you're using real money.

Tennessee (+11) @ San Diego

The Jets moved the ball with ease against the Titans, in Tennessee. I just don't see Tennessee being able to stop San Diego. Hopefully Marty Schottenheimer loosens the reins on Phillip Rivers against a weak team, to see what he can do before they get into the tougher games. San Diego

Kansas City (+10.5) @ Denver

If I told you Damon Huard was prominently involved in this game for a team trying to break in two offensive tackles, is that something you'd be interested in betting on? Denver

Washington (+6) @ Dallas

I am really starting to believe that this Dallas team could be a complete disaster. I haven't bought into their hype whatsoever, I think their defense is overrated, the offensive line is terrible, Terrell Owens comes in to the position they were probably strongest at last year, and now there's a quarterback controversy brewing, involving Drew Bledsoe and Tony Romo? Is Vinny Testaverde not available? No good can come of this. Washington

Pittsburgh (-1.5) @ Jacksonville

The Monday night game is tough. I think Jacksonville's underrated, but Pittsburgh's defense looks awesome. This game might tell you a lot about both of these games. I'm interested to see in Jacksonville is for real. I think they'll keep this close, but Pittsburgh ends up winning it. Should be a good game.

Week One NFL Picks Review

Went 10-6 on my picks against the spread for week one, the kind of strong start that one hopes to have for the season. Here were the games I missed: Denver @ St. Louis, New York Jets @ Tennessee, Baltimore @ Tampa, Seattle @ Detroit, New Orleans @ Cleveland, and Minnesota @ Washington. I tend to believe that the Denver and Seattle misses were the result of good teams coming out and laying an egg. It happens. In fact, both of these teams did the same thing last year, Denver getting absolutely destroyed by Miami, and Seattle looking bad in a loss against Jacksonville with Matt Hasselbeck playing poorly.

In the case of Denver, Jake Plummer will have an occasional game like that one, but he's ultimately a pretty solid quarterback to have, and the calls for Jay Cutler are ridiculous. Their run game looked good still, and that's the main thing they need for their offense to be successful.

Seattle had a lot of problems with their o-line, but I don't anticipate that to be an ongoing issue this season. They would have still covered if it wasn't for the two blocked field goals, or if they'd be able to punch it in just once. They beat an improved team on the road in week one; there's really no need to panic.

In the NYJ-Tennessee game I think I underestimated the impact of Tennessee's quarterback issues, and did not expect Chad Pennington to come out and play as well as he did. My opinion of the Jets definitely goes up with a healthy Pennington, but not much. They still beat a poor team that could of easily tied up the game in regulation and won it in overtime.

Baltimore beating Tampa is probably the week one result that is being most blown out of proportion. Yes, Baltimore's defense looked good, but do you really expect them to play that well all season? In addition, Tampa looked horrible on offense. Chris Simms looked like he had regressed after the progress he made last year, and they were playing without their starting guards, which effectively grounded their running game. My opinion of Tampa going into the game was not that high, as I do not expect them to return to the playoffs this year. I still view Baltimore as about a .500 team, give or take a game. I don't think they'll make the playoffs. Their defense will regress to the mean, and the holes in their offense will be exposed.

My opinion of Minnesota definitely increased with their game Monday night. I realize that they are a better team than I anticipated in my preseason review. That said, I still don't think they're great, and I'm willing to stand behind my preseason pick for them to be under 8 wins, based on the fact that there is no way that Brad Johnson stays healthy all season, and once he gets injured they're stuck with Brooks Bollinger or Tavaris Jackson. Not quite sure what to think about Washington. Minnesota didn't vastly outplay them, and they were in the game till the end. Their main issue was their offense; Mark Brunell didn't look very good at all. I think this is the quarterback controversy that the MSM is thus far ignoring. Brunell didn't have a flashy bad game, like Plummer or Drew Bledsoe or Brett Favre had. He just wasn't good. I think Jason Campbell ends up replacing him at some point this season, and that the offense ends up being better off for it.

New Orleans-Cleveland, I don't really have any thoughts on this game. Reggie Bush looked good, but the offense still wasn't good overall. The defense played well, but, well, it was the Cleveland Browns. Joe Jurevicius broke his ribs, and Braylon Edwards stunk, plus Reuben Droughns couldn't get anything going. Charlie Frye looked bad when he wasn't running the ball. Denver, Carolina, Oakland and Tampa were the only offenses worse in week one, according to Football Outsiders'VOA rankings. I'm not too worried about this result. I wasn't real confident going in, and that'll happen when you're picking every game.

I should have my week two picks up soon, either later tonight or sometime tomorrow, based on how much time I have. I'm still working the fair, and this weekend's supposed to be crazy busy. I'm not too worried. This is going to be a funky week for gamblers. Lots of crazy big spreads; I don't think I've ever seen five double-digit spreads in one week before. There were zero last week. I think these could be good games to exploit, just like last week when the two biggest spreads ended up going to the underdogs (Buffalo-NE, and Arizona-SF). Anyway, here's the week one breakdown on home/road, favorites/dogs, and inter-conference games. I'm going to track these through the season, and hopefully I'll be able to find some inefficiencies.

Home vs. Spread: 4-12. Good Lord. Sure looks like Week One home teams might be a little overvalued. Home teams just 5-11 overall!

Favorites vs. Spread: 5-11. This doesn't surprise me; because of the perceived lack of information going into the first week, oddsmakers are going to pad the spreads for the teams that people know, i.e. New England, Carolina, etc., because people are more willing to go with the teams they know. Vegas must make a killing in week one. 8-8 overall. That's a lot of underdogs winning outright. Would have been a good week to bet money lines.

NFC/AFC vs. Spread: 3-3. Sorry if that's a little confusing. This is the NFC record against the AFC against the spread. I'm interested to see how this shapes up throughout the season, because it says a lot about the perceived strength of the two conferences in comparison to each other. 3-3 overall.

In closing, I didn't get a chance to talk about this in this piece, but I told you so on the Raiders. Wow, that team looked bad. I wish I'd been there to laugh it up with Jerry Porter. And the Chargers looked real good. They'd be smart to open it up with Phillip Rivers. He looked ready, and you don't want to risk wearing out LDT by giving him 35 touches a game when you don't have to.

Puyallup Live Blog, Pt. 4

8:16-There has been a shocking development in the Manning Bowl. After Peyton and Eli have both choked, guaranteeing first ballot introduction into the Manning Hall of Game, Indianapolis is in the Giants' red zone at the two-minute warning, up two points. The spread is Indy -3.5. They have to score to ensure the cover! How will one Manning fuck this up for me? Let's see!

8:23-Colts kick the field goal to go up 5! Giants get the ball, get up to mid-field, but the Hail Mary attempt falls incomplete! I go to a robust 9-5 for the week against the spread!

Puyallup Live Blog, pt. 3

Went out and got some food. Watched some people. Found out that the ride that keeps playing Audioslave and Hoobastank is called El Nino, rather inexplicably. And yes, they are playing that Hoobastank song at this very moment. I am starting to drag. Must resort to fun facts.

Did You Know?

The Puyallup fair is the largest concentration of goatees and sleeveless T-shirts in Western Washington.

Children under the age of 8 are required to vomit while inside the park as a condition of their admission.

That all food sold at the fair must be breaded and deep fried.



4:51-I shouldn't say that there is nothing here for me to eat at the fair as a vegetarian if I desire a real meal. There is one place. I can eat a veggie sub. I have it with some chips and a sprite. I eat this every day as my fair meal. Today was no exception. I sat atop the International Village, and I ate my veggie sub and chips and drank my sprite. Its lemon-lime flavor was quite refreshing. It is sunny and a light wind is blowing. It is quite comfortable, actually.

The vegetarians who run the henna stand have reached out to me. They offered me hummus, the chosen olive branch for all vegetarian attempts at reaching out to unfamiliar people. Once again this is a fact. You cannot debate this. And if you don't like hummus, fuck you. I don't want you to read this. I will make an effort to hang out with the henna people before the day is over. I picture their booth looking like an Ottoman harem.

5:18-Although my NFL Guest Guesser picks have been disappointing, I currently stand at 8-5 against the spread for my week one picks with the Sunday night and the two Monday games to go.

6:09-This is what I really excel at in life -- I am incredible at avoiding work. Right now, I could be helping to unload a truck, but that would involve non-voluntary physical exertion on my part, something that I just cannot do. Instead I'm sitting here, checking the same football scores, over and over.

7:36-We are into the home stretch. (I am trying to use as many horse racing analogies as possible.) This is endurance bloggery at this point. I have been at it for over ten hours now, and I'm doing it all for you, loyal readers. The Manning Bowl has moved into the forth quarter, and Peyton is trying to blow it for me. I hate you so much, Peyton.

Puyallup Live Blog, Pt. 2

12:41-There's a ride right by the warehouse, but I can't quite see it because there's a tent in my way. This ride plays music as it operates, but I like it only plays three different songs: a generic House music beat, that dreadful Audioslave song about being yourself and how that's all that you can do, and that song, I think by Hoobastank, that has the worst first line I've ever heard, "I'm not a perfect person..." right there, you can stop playing the song. When you hear a line like that, you know the song sucks. It's actually kind of polite on Hoobastank's part, because you know, right out of the gates, that this song sucks, and will suck forever. Yet this ride plays this song all day long, and I'm stuck here listening to it. "...A REASON TO START OVER NEW, AND THE REASON IS YOOOOUUU!" This is what plays in my end all day long.

Well, the Seahawks won, but God they looked bad in the second half. This game reminded me of those games they used to play with the Chargers every year, where all the scoring came from field goals, and Jon Carney would always win it with no time remaining. At least the Hawks won it this time.

The Buffalo Bills lost to the Patriots today on a safety. I'm pretty sure that that is the perfect way to sum up Buffalo as an organization.

1:06-Update on my Guest Guesser picks; Seahawks win, KC loses, Tampa loses, Cleveland loses, Tennessee and Denver about to lose. Harsh. Tennessee and Denver might have a chance, but it's pretty unlikely. 4 games still to go. Probably out of the running at this point.

1:50-Midday lull. Second batch of NFL games have started. Lots of tedious work for me. Carnies acting surprisingly normal. Calm before the storm. Figurative storm. Weather is actually quite nice. The amount of paper I will go through over the course of this fair is astounding, as I have to invoice every order made in triplicate. There are 49 stands that we run, and the fair runs 17 days. That is a ton of paper, maybe even literally. I'm hoping that pretty soon I'll be caught up on orders, and able to get some food, since I've had nothing but coffee since the bowl of cereal I ate at 7:45 this morning. That should give me a chance to explore the grounds a bit, and take some notes, all for your reading pleasure. You can thank me later.

2:32-Breaking news on stock boy Chris: he's been married and divorced already. I'm pretty certain he's younger than me. I have recently attained the legal age of drinking, just for reference. Almost caught up with my invoices. My stomach has begun to eat itself.

Puyallup Live Blog, Pt. 1

Hello, and welcome to your official, in the non-official sense of the word, live blog for the Puyallup Fair on a momentous Sunday, September 10, in the year of the Lord 2006. I am currently stationed inside our warehouse, right where the magic happens. And believe me, there is magic in this warehouse, and all over these fair grounds. Well, either magic or the ghosts of Japanese citizens interned here during World War II. Here's a run-down of my morning thus far:

8:17-I leave Bellevue. Depeche Mode is my accompaniment for the drive. Depeche Mode is the single greatest band in human history to drive to. That's a fact. You can't even argue that.

8:59-I get to the warehouse. My computer has been taken over by Robbie, one of the warehouse workers. He is from Kelowna, BC, and I've discovered that he plays professional indoor lacrosse. I had no clue there was a league for indoor lacrosse. You know it's a good day when you discover a new sports league at a time when you'd normally be asleep.

9:12-Grab my first cup of coffee. There will be many more to come.

9:41-I come to two realizations, both good. My day has been blissfully carnie-free thus far, and the first Sunday of the NFL season starts in 19 minutes. This may be the greatest benefit of living on the west coast. Football starts at 10 in the morning on Sundays. What a country we live in. ("God Bless America" swells in the background as a single tear rolls down my cheek, coming to a rest in the dense tangles of my mutton chops.)

There will also be an intriguing subplot running through today's NFL games. The Seattle Times runs a contest called Guest Guesser, where you predict the outcome of 20 football games a week, 10 college and 10 pro. I some how hit all ten college games yesterday, and I don't even particularly like college football. If I hit all 20 games, I win $1000 and an opportunity to win a trip to the Super Bowl. And yes, there is now no way in hell I can win after that jinx. Just for kicks, here are the teams I need to win: Seattle, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Denver, Cleveland, Tennessee, Chicago, Jacksonville, Arizona, and Indianapolis.

10:02-NFL games starting, and I have yet to receive a phone call or be contacted on my walkie-talkie. Also, the incredibly loud roller coaster directly in front of me through the bay door of the warehouse is not running yet. My day has nowhere to go but down.

10:13-I fill an order for 12 plush pink poodles on a leash. I die a little bit inside. Seahawks first drive is stopped by a blocked FG attempt.

10:31-Seahawks have ball at their own 11 after a Detroit punt. Shaun Alexander has already lost a fumble today. Football Outsiders have the Seahawks predicted to be the best team in the league this year, by a pretty big margin, with the best offense and the 2nd best defense. My Super Bowl sleepers, the San Diego Chargers, are ranked 3rd overall, behind Indianapolis. The roller coaster has began operations.

10:58-Getting kind of busy. My first stock boy is in, Chris. I have no clue where they find these stock boys. Chris looks like all of his teeth have been shifted one to the right, and then every other one was removed. I wish this was an exaggeration. Did I mention he has a child, and is working this job to pay his child support? Meanwhile, the Seahawks appear to be dominating the Lions in every aspect but the scoreboard. Matt Hasselbeck is the man.

11:16-As the first group of NFL games nears halftime, I'm getting absolutely killed. Seahawks are winning, but Tampa, KC, Tennessee, Denver, and Cleveland are losing. Tampa, Denver and Kansas City are losing by double-digits, with Cleveland down 9.

11:49-Ken the Canadian warehouse manager who prefaces everything with "fuckin" or "motherfuckin" has arrived. My day just got a whole lot louder. Cleveland and Denver are showing signs of life.

12:15-I forgot to write that earlier there was a debacle about the fact that the frog-shaped guns that blow out bubbles were not working. It was very important, apparently. Bubble guns are selling like hot cakes. Or maybe they're selling so well that hot cakes are selling like bubble guns? I used to have a readership, but I blew all their minds with that one. So now no one reads my blog.

And thus concludes part one of this live blog.

A Bold Experiment

I have had a thought. Yes, and a wonderful thought it is. Tomorrow I shall take on that wonderous interweb-centric event that you and I call the "live blog." And not just any old run-of-the-mill event commonly subjected to live bloggery, such as a sporting event or live television award show, but that glorious entity we call "a day at the fair." And what better person to lead you through your day at the fair than I, a fair insider. (I am actual inside during the fair! Can you even wrap your feeble mind around that, loyal reader? Whilst the common man strolls through the fair grounds, eating his cotton candy and carrying the novelty stretched-out coke bottle that has been filled with sand and decorated to appear like a whimisical creature of sorts that he has purchased to remember said fair, I am inside a warehouse, yet still at the fair?! Isn't that mind-boggling? Is your mind appropriately boggled?) Yes, from the ornate throne I sit upon at the front of this warehouse, I will blog away, all the live-long day, in real time! Are you amazed how this medium is changing your life and expanding your mind in ways you never thought possible? Please, join me tomorrow on this magical mystery blograganza. You won't regret it.

Also Sprach Ryan Howard

Sweet Jesus. Ryan Howard hit two more home runs tonight, bringing his total to 56 this season. If the Phillies end up in the playoffs, he's a lock for MVP, even though Pujols may actually be slightly more deserving based on his season as a whole. Where Howard will benefit is the fact that he's hit better than Jesus since the all-star break, while Pujols decided to have the greatest April in history. Since the all-star break, Howard has hit a Ruthian (just a notch below Bondsian) .356/.492/.799 (AVG/OBP/SLG), and that's not even including tonight. He has 28 home runs since the all-star break, with over 2/3 of September to go. He will most likely hit 62 home runs, and, deserving or not, be crowned by the MSM as the "clean" single season home run leader. I'm just glad to have jumped on this bandwagon early, because this guy's going to be enormous. I personally see myself hating him in the next six months, but for now, at least, I get to bask in the glory of "I told you so"-dom.

Week One NFL Picks

Bill Simmons did his NFL preview today, and while I am generally a fan and try to resist the Simmons bashing that tends to be so prevalent on these vast internets, I've got to call him out for today. Don't claim to spend so much time researching the upcoming season, and follow it up by writing a ridiculously half-assed treatment of the entire NFC, which as it currently stands, according to my calculations, comprises 50% of the NFL. St. Louis is your sleeper? Seahawks at 7-9? Dallas at 10-6 after he points out the T.O. related collapse that is bound to happen? Minnesota making the playoffs? At least he didn't jump on the Arizona bandwagon. I realize he's more of a humor columnist than anything, but he's still got a dream job and if he's going to do it half-assed, he probably shouldn't do it at all.

Anyway, the NFL season starts tomorrow. Isn't that fantastic? You know it is, especially if you're a compulsive gambler. Without further adieu, on to the week one picks, which I plan on doing throughout the season, unless I really suck ass, in which case I will quit to spare myself the (theoretical) embarassment I may suffer in front of my (theoretical) readership. Lines courtesy of Bodog.

Miami (-1.5) @ Pittsburgh

Miami has a ton of preseason hype, due to the signing of Daunte Culpepper, the expected emergence of Ronnie Brown, and a supposedly improved defense. Sports Illustrated went as far as predicting them as Super Bowl losers in their always laughable NFL preview. (When lumbering vestiges of the MSM attempt to become with "it", as SI has attempted in the last couple years with shorter sensationalist pieces by snarky writers, it's never good. It's like when MC Hammer went gangsta rap, dropped the "MC", then made a video wearing a speedo while sporting a struting erection that ended up banned by MTV. Please SI, do not put Peter King in a speedo.) This spread has swung six points since opening, due to Roethlisberger's appendectomy. My suspicion is that that's too far of a swing. I think I would still lay a couple points on Pittsburgh at home against Miami, even without Ben. Getting 1.5, I'm all over that. They won two games last year with Batch. He's actually not that bad. Pittsburgh.

Denver (-4) @ St. Louis

It's tempting to pick this as a let down game for a team coming off the AFC championship game, on the road against the Greatest Show on Turf, with a suspect running back platoon. Then I remember that St. Louis is going to really suck bad this year. Denver.

New York Jets (+2.5) @ Tennessee

Man, the Jets will be bad this year. And I think Tennessee will be improved, even with the odd QB situation they have. Tennessee.

Buffalo Bills (+9.5) @ New England

That's a huge spread. New England seems to get the benefit of the doubt because of the reputations of Brady and Belichick. They still have a ton of questions marks, especially at WR and their secondary. I think Buffalo sucks, and I might look bad, but I'm not ready to pass up the points. Buffalo.

Baltimore (+3) @ Tampa Bay

It's a good thing I'll be stuck in this warehouse on Sunday, so that there is no chance I end up watching this game. Tampa Bay.

Cincinnati (+2) @ Kansas City

It's just a damn shame that the Bengals' off-season has to come to a close. Cincinnati.

Seattle (-6.5) @ Detroit

This game has swung 3.5 points toward Seattle since it opened, so you know that all the morons are putting their money on the Hawks. I would normally go against this, but I think the Hawks will return with avengence to Jerome Bettis' hometown, leaving behind a trail of flames and degradation. Or maybe Detroit has always just looked like that. Seattle.

Atlanta (+6) @ Carolina

I think Atlanta's got the ability to surprise people, if Michael Vick ever decides to learn how to be an NFL QB. Maybe he'll do it this year, and stop robbing the Falcons blind. Atlanta's defense should be much improved over last year, and I could see this being a close game. Atlanta.

Philadelphia (-5.5) @ Houston

Philadelphia gets back on the playoff path.

New Orleans (+3) @ Cleveland

As much of a feel good story New Orleans has been throughout the off-season, they're still really bad. They might have enough offense to surprise a couple teams this year, and it is hard to have a truly terrible football team with a competent quarterback, but they are severely lacking in what it takes to win games. Cleveland.

Dallas (+2) @ Jacksonville

Dallas loses a close one on the road. Bledsoe makes a terrible crucial play, T.O.'s media sniping begins. Jacksonville.

Chicago (-3.5) @ Green Bay

Brett Favre's pursuit of the single-season interception record begins. Chicago.

San Francisco (+8) @ Arizona

Arizona is not that good, as I've already documented. San Fran will make it surprisingly close, maybe even win it. The Arizona bandwagon will become a little lighter. San Francisco.

Indianapolis (-3.5) @ New York Giants

Did you know that Eli and Peyton Manning are brothers? Indianapolis.

Minnesota (+4.5) @ Washington

It is unfortunate that no double-ended dildos will make an appearance during this game. Washington.

San Diego (-3) @ Oakland

I was at the Seahawks final preseason game against the Raiders. I do not need to further explain this pick. San Diego.

Thank God it's football season.

Yao Ming and Shark Fin Soup

When working at a desk in a warehouse, surrounded by boxes filled with plastic dolphins and other assorted doo dahs, the smell of vomit gently wafting into the warehouse, one's mind tends to wander. Inevitably, one's mind will wander into the the cruel and depressing meadow (wandering always leads to meadows) that is shark fin soup. This story is supposedly about a month old, but was never brought to my attention, so it has obviously just happened, with older dates placed on the links to make myself and Mr. Yao look foolish. Alas, I could never be made to look foolish, with my flowing hair and stunning mutton chops. But I digress. I feel that everyone, even you, loyal reader, should know that Mr. Yao and I are united in our effort to stop the consumption of shark fin soup. Not through any actual effort, but if prompted, I will give a strongly worded rebuke to anyone thinking about consuming shark fin soup. Plus, I will include general ill-will in all my thoughts about China until people stop throwing finless sharks back into the water so an overrated soup can be made. Believe me, I have many thoughts about China included in my daily routine.

As Gregor Samsa woke one morning from uneasy dreams he found himself in his bed, transformed into a member of the Accounts Receivable department

As I currently write, I am sitting in a warehouse somewhere in the center of the Puyallup Fair grounds. This will be day 3. For the uninitiated, the Puyallup Fair is the "Pacific Northwest's ultimate entertainment event," if one's idea of an entertainment event is farm animals, rodeos, fried foods, and nauseating roller coasters, interspliced with concerts from the likes of Hilary Duff, Kenny Rogers and Creedence Clearwater Revisited. (Hilary Duff tickets are $59.50. I hate ya, sweet Jesus). I'm handling the accounts receivable for a company that controls the concessions and novelties for the fair. I do not know how I got here. I read Karl Marx and am prone to making snobbish comments about your musical tastes. I'm an English major living in Seattle. When I explain how I got this job and what it entails, I feel like someone explaining how they ended up in porn. "I needed the money, I was desperate..." so on and so forth. This is my Gregor Samsa transformed into a monstrous vermin moment.

The Fair has given me a surprisingly large amount of free time, with high speed internet access, as my actual duties thus far take up about 2 hours of a 10-12 hour day. Going into this I thought that this thing we call blog may have to die down for the majority of the month of September, but as it currently stands, I may be able to produce a record output. Huzzah!!! I hope that you, my loyal readers, are as excited as I am. My mutton chops are twitching with anticipation. Hopefully at some point in the near future, I will finish my current pet project, a long-winded, rambling piece with loads of research on the nature of sacrifice bunting as it pertains to the 2006 Seattle Mariners, in terms of run expectancy, and possibly even win expectancy. That excites you, doesn't it? That tingling you feel, that's the excitement, or possibly an oncoming cold sore. I have drinken entirely too much coffee.

2006 Fantasy Baseball

With Ryan Howard hitting three home runs today in the first game of the Phillies' doubleheader, bringing his total to 52 on the season, I would like to bring to the attention of every member of my fantasy baseball league, and to the general public, that I was on this bandwagon from the beginning, and that I drafted Howard in the seventh round of our fantasy draft. When he hits number 62 and sets the all-natural MLB single season home run record, just know that I was there from the beginning.

P.S. I also drafted Joe Mauer in the 8th round.

Fun with (purely hypothetical) Gambling, Part 2

Alright, so when I say I'll have a post up by tomorrow, you can trust me to have it up within two weeks. Anyway, here are my thoughts on the NFC teams, with the over/under on wins listed next to each team.

NFC North
Chicago-9.5
Minnesota-8
Detroit-7
Green Bay-6.5

The NFC North is a division with a lot of parity, an NFL euphemism for being loaded with mediocre to bad teams. Chicago will once again be the best team in the division and will coast into the playoffs by virtue of their schedule, despite not making any moves to improve their offense. Rex Grossman will be at quarterback until he's injured by week 6, and they did bring in Brian Griese to back him up, in hopes of Kyle Orton and his famous neck beard not having to make any appearances this season. Even with their mediocre offense, their defense should still be very good, and they should be able to coast through their division. Definite Over. Minnesota is regarded as the second best team in the division due to their second half run to 9 wins last year, but I can't see them winning that many games again this year. They played over their heads last year in the second half (2 wins over their pythagorean expected record), especially Brad Johnson. (Who could have predicted that?) Johnson will not play as well this year due to regression to the mean, and more importantly, is a serious injury risk at the most important position on the field. If you're a Viking fan, you do not want to see Tavaris Jackson or Mike McMahon under center, and there's a good chance it's going to happen. The offensive line will be improved with the addition of Steve Hutchinson, but Chester Taylor and Mewelde Moore just aren't very good, and the receiving corps is ugly. Under. Detroit and Green Bay should be improved over last year due to their schedules, two of the easiest in the league, but neither of these teams is good. I would say that Detroit is most likely to be somewhat surprising, but in more of a "wow, Detroit might crack .500 with Matt Millen still prominently involved" kind of surprising, rather than potential playoff team.

NFC South
Carolina-10
Atlanta-8.5
Tampa Bay-8
New Orleans-6.5

Carolina seems to be the pre-season favorite to win the NFC, at least within the MSM. I'm not ready to buy that just yet. The passing offense will be improved with the addition of Keyshawn Johnson at second WR to complement the best receiver in the league last year, Steve Smith, but their running game will be below average again unless DeAngelo Williams is for real and he supplants the highly overrated DeShaun Foster at running back. They do have one of the best defenses in the league, especially upfront, but they were also incredibly lucky last year with regard to fumble recoveries, and should regress somewhat in that aspect. I think they'll be over ten wins, but I don't think they're ready to pass up the Seahawks as the top team in the NFC. Atlanta is a difficult team to project. They're a year removed from the NFC championship game, but completely collasped during the second half last year. They're one of the best rushing offenses in the league, but also have a terrible group of receivers, and an offensive scheme that is not a good fit for Michael Vick. I truly think they should just hire Urban Meyer to teach them the Spread offense, and cut it out with the West Coast offense experiment. Their defense was terrible last year, but should be improved with Ed Hartwell returning from injury. 8.5 sounds about right, with a chance to go over. Tampa Bay will drop off this year due to their schedule. New Orleans is just bad. Bad offense, bad defense. The offense will be improved, or at least more entertaining, with Reggie Bush and Drew Brees, but the line and receivers are mediocre to poor, and the defense is real bad. Their schedule won't help, either. Definite Under.

NFC East
Dallas-9.5
Washington-9
NY Giants-9
Philadelphia-8.5

The most even division in the league, top to bottom. Dallas is the pre-season favorite, at 3/2 to win the division and 10/1 to win the Super Bowl. Let me bring out my best Christopher Walken voice to say "That's...crazy!" This is not that good of a team. I'm not quite sure why they brought in Terrell Owens, either. He does not address the needs of their offense, while introducing a enormous distraction to the team. This will not end well. Where they really needed help was offensive line, which they did not address. They'll wish they'd gone out and gotten some linemen about the same time Drew Bledsoe throws his first game-ending interception after being sacked 6 times, leading to T.O. blowing up at him on the sideline, followed by T.O. insinuating to the media that Bledsoe is a hoomosexual or a racist. Under. You'll thank me. Out of Washington and the NYG, I think Washington's the better team, though they may struggle without Clinton Portis for the first couple weeks. The Giants will struggle aginst their schedule, one of the most difficult in the league. Factor in some regression from Tiki Barber and an aging receiving group, plus Eli Manning throwing passes twenty feet over his receivers' heads, and this could be a frustrating offense to watch. I think Philadelphia will be one of the surprise teams of the NFC. It's amazing how quickly people are writing off a team that won 48 games in the four years prior to last year. Last year was a completely unpredictable collapse. They were killed by injuries and Terrell Owens. Over, with a good shot to win this division.

NFC West
Seattle-10.5
Arizona-8
St. Louis-7
San Francisco-5

I've already covered most of my thoughts on the NFC West in an earlier post, but I'll paraphrase here. Seattle returns last year's NFC championship team nearly intact, if not improved, especially on defense. Combine this with a patsy schedule, and the Hawks should have home-field advantage through the playoffs. Over. Arizona is not nearly as good as the MSM wants them to be. They have a sexy fantasy team construction, versus the kind of team that wins real football games. Fitzgerald and Boldin are as good as anyone in the league, but Edgerrin James is due for a collapse after moving from the best line in the league to the worst. Under. St. Louis will be surprisingly terrible. Under. San Francisco seems just about right.

In conclusion, here are my best bets for the over/under: Tennesee (over), San Diego (over), Chicago (over), Minnesota (under), New Orleans (under), Dallas (under), Philadelphia (over), Seattle (over), Arizona (under), and St. Louis (under). Out of those ten, I'd say that five best bets are San Diego, Minnesota, New Orleans, Seattle, and St. Louis. The AFC seems to definitely be the more known commodity, with a whole lot less variability. Here are some of my favorite long shot bets: San Diego to win the Super Bowl at 18/1, and Philadelphia at 22/1. I'm not saying either of those teams are going to win it all, but I do think those are undervalued teams that would give good payouts, and that actually have outside chances to win it all. I also like Seattle at 11/1 to win it all. Atlanta at 30/1 to win it all or 13/1 to win the NFC might also be good extreme long shots.

Here's my playoff picks:

Division champs:
AFC: Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, New England, San Diego
NFC: Chicago, Carolina, Philadelphia, Seattle

Wild Cards:
AFC: Kansas City, Cincinnati
NFC: Atlanta, Washington

Seattle's definitely my pick to win the NFC, due to the fact that they'll probably have home-field through the playoffs. I think the AFC comes down to Indy, New England or San Diego, with San Diego upsetting Indianapolis in the AFC championship, then losing to the Hawks in Super Bowl XLI. You can hold me to it.