Week 3 NFL Picks, Reviewed

I was 7-6-1 for week 3, was 2-2 on my best bets, and hit three of four over/unders. That Chicago game was a killer. Chicago at -3.5 won by three points, and the score was over by half a point. I'm 25-20-1 overall. Here were my misses:

Buffalo (-5.5)
Miami (-11)
Chicago (-3.5)
Carolina (-3)
Baltimore (-6.5)
Atlanta (-4)

Jacksonville-Indy was the push.

I think the only real mistake I made this week was taking Miami at -11. Laying 11 points on a team that has looked as bad as Miami this season is moronic, regardless of how bad Tennessee has been. I'm willing to stand behind the Buffalo pick; They really outplayed the Jets all game, yet couldn't get the ball into the endzone. I think that's unlikely to continue in the future with a good as Willis McGahee has looked so far. The Jets seem to be getting by with smoke and mirrors. The Chicago game was frustrating. It was difficult to tell whether they're not as good as I thought, or if Minnesota is better than I thought. I thought that game made it apparent that Rex Grossman cannot struggle this year if Chicago wants to be an elite team. He just didn't look good in that game, his throws were all over the place, the interceptions were terrible, etc. Chicago was lucky to get out of that one with a win. I thought that the Carolina-Tampa game confirms that Carolina is not in the upper echelon of this league. Even with Steve Smith back and looking like he was nearly 100%, they didn't beat Tampa like they should have. Their defense is no where close to as good as some people thought it would be, and their poor running game holds them back on offense. Tampa probably should have won that game outright.

Baltimore's offense is fairly worrisome. As it currently stands, I think they're in the second tier of AFC teams. Here's who I would include in the first tier, the teams I think stand a strong chance of being the AFC representative in the Super Bowl: Cincinnati, San Diego, Indianapolis. That's it. Even Indy is suspect because their defense has been awful. The second tier is pretty crowded: Baltimore, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Denver and New England. My issue with all of these teams so far has been their offenses. Unless your defense is historically good, such as the '85 Bears or 2000 Ravens, you can't win without a least a solid offense, and I don't see any of these teams as having historically good defenses. And yes, I do think New England is just the eighth-best team in the AFC. If it wasn't for their division, they would not be a playoff team.

Atlanta also took a step back with their Monday night loss. Evil Michael Vick reared his head in that game, spraying passes all over the place, skipping balls to receivers, forcing passes to Alge Crumpler in triple coverage, and running himself into sacks. His success running the ball the first two weeks may actually be detrimental to him, as he seems to be a player who buys into his own hype and seems to think he's invincible when he has success doing stuff that should only work in video games. At the same time, a lot of credit should be given to New Orleans' defense. They looked really good, fast and surprisingly cohesive, considering how their three starting linebackers have been there for about a month. So yes, I am upgrading my opinion of the Saints. They are not terrible. They may also have the benefit of a unique home-field advantage all season. It'll be hard to pick against them at home this season.

This was a frustrating week of games for me. I know I was over .500, but I think I could've easily gotten 9 or 10 wins with a few breaks. I was right on with a number of my predictions, especially in the Seattle, St. Louis, Philly and Denver games. Oh well. There's always week four. Here's the breakdown from the week three games.

Home vs. Spread: 5-8-1. 20-25-1 for the season. Home teams are just 21-25 for the season. Something to be noted.

Favorites vs. Spread: 3-10-1. 18-27-1 for the season. Favorites 27-19 overall. It's beginning to look like that when in doubt, go with road underdogs.

NFC/AFC vs. Spread: 1-0. Washington vs. Houston was only inter-conference game of the week. NFC is 4-3 against the spread in interconference games, 4-3 overall.

I should have my picks for the week up either tomorrow evening or sometime Friday. Don't hesitate to post comments, anonymous criticism, etc.