Week Two NFL Picks

Week Two can be be a difficult time to pick NFL games. I'm not just saying this to cover my ass when I fuck up every game this week; it really is hard to pick early season games. Any view you have of the teams is just a small snapshot that can be very misleading; great teams can look bad, pretenders can look like contenders, it's just the nature of dealing with a very small sample size. The best way to look at an early season slate is probably to stick with your preseason thoughts on each team, tempered slightly by one's impression of week one performances. Don't get suckered into thinking an average team is great because they dominated someone in week one. In 2003 New England opened the year in Buffalo and got shut out 31-0. They went 17-1 the rest of the season to win the Super Bowl. Buffalo ended up 6-10. Week one can be misleading. With that in mind, on to the picks. Lines courtesy of USA Today.

Oakland (+12) @ Baltimore

Let's look at this game as a case study in why one shouldn't invest too much in week one performance. Baltimore played the most dominant game of the week, going into Tampa and shuting out a playoff team from last season. Oakland played as poorly as any team in the league at home against San Diego, in the spotlight of Monday night football, no less. If you look at this as the best team in the league against the worst, you're going to go with Baltimore. The problem with this logic though, is that neither team has played at their true level yet. Baltimore is not that good, and Oakland is not that bad. Baltimore scored twenty points last week on offense, not a bad total, but not great either, and Oakland may have a pretty good defense, roughly in line with Tampa Bay's. If you assume a similar offensive performance by Baltimore, combined with the fact that Oakland most likely won't get shut out again, and that Baltimore most likely will not score a defensive touchdown, it becomes highly dubious to put money on Baltimore giving twelve points. Oakland

Houston (+13.5) @ Indianapolis

Indianapolis did not play very well against in the Manning Bowl, yet still managed to beat a good team. Expect them to bounce back this week at home against Houston, the team that had the worst defense by VOA in week one, except for...Indianapolis. It'll be interesting to see how the Indy defense performs this season, as the defensive improvements they made between 2005 and 2004 were the reason the Colts were the best team in the NFL during last year's regular season. You might see a lot of scoring in this one. Indianapolis

Cleveland (+10) @ Cincinnati

Cincinnati stomped Kansas City on the road pretty thoroughly, while Cleveland looked bad against New Orleans. I would expect more of the same in this one. I'm actually surprised this spread isn't larger. Cincinnati should be able to really give Pittsburgh a challenge this year, while Cleveland doesn't look like they're good at anything. I wonder if any of the Cleveland fans will decide to bring out their dirty brown towels in this battle for Ohio. Cincinnati

Buffalo (+6.5) @ Miami

I'm going to go with Miami on this one, but who knows? Buffalo gave New England a ton of problems in the first half last week, and probably should of won that game. My suspicion is that they were playing over their heads, but J.P. Losman looked like a real-life NFL quarterback, Willis McGahee is looking like a stud, and their defense really had New England confused. Not a lot of confidence on this one. I could see Buffalo win it, and I could see them get blown out. I'm leaning toward a let down game and a blown out, with Miami playing much better than they did against Pittsburgh.

Detroit (+9) @ Chicago

Chicago turned in one of the more dominant performances in the league in their shutout of Green Bay at Lambeau Field. What was most surprising about their performance was the play of their offense. My opinion is that the Chicago offense regresses this week against a Detroit defense that held the Seahawks, a vastly superior offensive team to Chicago, to just nine points. I could see this be a very low scoring game; Chicago has the best defense in the league while Detroit looks like they may have a very good defense. Nine points seems like too high of a spread. Detroit

Carolina (-1.5) @ Minnesota

Carolina was the most disappointing team in week one, getting absolutely ran over by Atlanta. You know that was a sad Sunday at the Sports Illustrated offices as their perennial pre-season Super Bowl winner sucked real bad without Steve Smith. Smith is questionable this week, and Jake Delhomme better hope he's back, because Delhomme looked absolutely lost without him. Their run game sucks as long as DeShaun Foster is their running back, and he's still starting this week. Minnesota, with all bets off if Brad Johnson is injured.

New York Giants (+3) @ Philadelphia

It'll be interesting to see what this game tells us about the Giants offense/Colts defense. The Giants moved the ball at will against Indy, but it's entirely possible that the Colts can't stop anyone. I do think the Giants offense will be very good this year, and it'll be interesting to see what happens in this one. This will be a game with a ton of offense that should be a very competitive. I'm going to go with Philadelphia at home, but I think this'll be close.

Tampa Bay (+5.5) @ Atlanta

I'm not really sure where to go with this one. Atlanta ran over what is supposed to be a very good Carolina defense, which leads me to believe they can run on Tampa. Still, I expect Tampa to bounce back after playing horribly against Baltimore. There's no way that Chris Simms has that many balls batted down at the line again this week, is there? I still don't like Tampa's line situation. I've got to go with Atlanta.

New Orleans (-2) @ Green Bay

This is how far Green Bay has dropped off: They're a home underdog against one of the three worst teams in the NFC. Green Bay was awful last week, against Chicago, but I know the Chicago Bears, and New Orleans is no Chicago. Green Bay, in Brett Favre's last hurrah.

St. Louis (-3) @ San Francisco

St. Louis beat a very good Denver team last week, but they're also a team with a notorious home/road split on both offense and defense. San Francisco resumed being an NFL team last week after taking last season off. Alex Smith, despite his child-like hands, even looked like he may not be the worst quarterback drafted since Ryan Leaf. How about that? I think St. Louis is due for a let down this week. San Francisco

Arizona (+7) @ Seattle

There is no possible scenario in which Seattle loses this game. First home game after a Super Bowl run? Double bonus if it rains. Seattle

New England (-5.5) @ New York Jets

I don't know about this one. I could see New England bounce back and dominate, and I could see the Jets, who are pretty bad, even with Pennington, win this one. New England really scares me with their wide receiver situation. I feel like this may be the decision that exposes Bill Belichick for his hubris. I realize they've got some good tight ends, but I think you need at least one legitimate one or two receiver to be successful. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt, but they scare the hell out of me. New England. Stay the hell away from this one if you're using real money.

Tennessee (+11) @ San Diego

The Jets moved the ball with ease against the Titans, in Tennessee. I just don't see Tennessee being able to stop San Diego. Hopefully Marty Schottenheimer loosens the reins on Phillip Rivers against a weak team, to see what he can do before they get into the tougher games. San Diego

Kansas City (+10.5) @ Denver

If I told you Damon Huard was prominently involved in this game for a team trying to break in two offensive tackles, is that something you'd be interested in betting on? Denver

Washington (+6) @ Dallas

I am really starting to believe that this Dallas team could be a complete disaster. I haven't bought into their hype whatsoever, I think their defense is overrated, the offensive line is terrible, Terrell Owens comes in to the position they were probably strongest at last year, and now there's a quarterback controversy brewing, involving Drew Bledsoe and Tony Romo? Is Vinny Testaverde not available? No good can come of this. Washington

Pittsburgh (-1.5) @ Jacksonville

The Monday night game is tough. I think Jacksonville's underrated, but Pittsburgh's defense looks awesome. This game might tell you a lot about both of these games. I'm interested to see in Jacksonville is for real. I think they'll keep this close, but Pittsburgh ends up winning it. Should be a good game.