Fun with (purely hypothetical) Gambling, Part 2

Alright, so when I say I'll have a post up by tomorrow, you can trust me to have it up within two weeks. Anyway, here are my thoughts on the NFC teams, with the over/under on wins listed next to each team.

NFC North
Chicago-9.5
Minnesota-8
Detroit-7
Green Bay-6.5

The NFC North is a division with a lot of parity, an NFL euphemism for being loaded with mediocre to bad teams. Chicago will once again be the best team in the division and will coast into the playoffs by virtue of their schedule, despite not making any moves to improve their offense. Rex Grossman will be at quarterback until he's injured by week 6, and they did bring in Brian Griese to back him up, in hopes of Kyle Orton and his famous neck beard not having to make any appearances this season. Even with their mediocre offense, their defense should still be very good, and they should be able to coast through their division. Definite Over. Minnesota is regarded as the second best team in the division due to their second half run to 9 wins last year, but I can't see them winning that many games again this year. They played over their heads last year in the second half (2 wins over their pythagorean expected record), especially Brad Johnson. (Who could have predicted that?) Johnson will not play as well this year due to regression to the mean, and more importantly, is a serious injury risk at the most important position on the field. If you're a Viking fan, you do not want to see Tavaris Jackson or Mike McMahon under center, and there's a good chance it's going to happen. The offensive line will be improved with the addition of Steve Hutchinson, but Chester Taylor and Mewelde Moore just aren't very good, and the receiving corps is ugly. Under. Detroit and Green Bay should be improved over last year due to their schedules, two of the easiest in the league, but neither of these teams is good. I would say that Detroit is most likely to be somewhat surprising, but in more of a "wow, Detroit might crack .500 with Matt Millen still prominently involved" kind of surprising, rather than potential playoff team.

NFC South
Carolina-10
Atlanta-8.5
Tampa Bay-8
New Orleans-6.5

Carolina seems to be the pre-season favorite to win the NFC, at least within the MSM. I'm not ready to buy that just yet. The passing offense will be improved with the addition of Keyshawn Johnson at second WR to complement the best receiver in the league last year, Steve Smith, but their running game will be below average again unless DeAngelo Williams is for real and he supplants the highly overrated DeShaun Foster at running back. They do have one of the best defenses in the league, especially upfront, but they were also incredibly lucky last year with regard to fumble recoveries, and should regress somewhat in that aspect. I think they'll be over ten wins, but I don't think they're ready to pass up the Seahawks as the top team in the NFC. Atlanta is a difficult team to project. They're a year removed from the NFC championship game, but completely collasped during the second half last year. They're one of the best rushing offenses in the league, but also have a terrible group of receivers, and an offensive scheme that is not a good fit for Michael Vick. I truly think they should just hire Urban Meyer to teach them the Spread offense, and cut it out with the West Coast offense experiment. Their defense was terrible last year, but should be improved with Ed Hartwell returning from injury. 8.5 sounds about right, with a chance to go over. Tampa Bay will drop off this year due to their schedule. New Orleans is just bad. Bad offense, bad defense. The offense will be improved, or at least more entertaining, with Reggie Bush and Drew Brees, but the line and receivers are mediocre to poor, and the defense is real bad. Their schedule won't help, either. Definite Under.

NFC East
Dallas-9.5
Washington-9
NY Giants-9
Philadelphia-8.5

The most even division in the league, top to bottom. Dallas is the pre-season favorite, at 3/2 to win the division and 10/1 to win the Super Bowl. Let me bring out my best Christopher Walken voice to say "That's...crazy!" This is not that good of a team. I'm not quite sure why they brought in Terrell Owens, either. He does not address the needs of their offense, while introducing a enormous distraction to the team. This will not end well. Where they really needed help was offensive line, which they did not address. They'll wish they'd gone out and gotten some linemen about the same time Drew Bledsoe throws his first game-ending interception after being sacked 6 times, leading to T.O. blowing up at him on the sideline, followed by T.O. insinuating to the media that Bledsoe is a hoomosexual or a racist. Under. You'll thank me. Out of Washington and the NYG, I think Washington's the better team, though they may struggle without Clinton Portis for the first couple weeks. The Giants will struggle aginst their schedule, one of the most difficult in the league. Factor in some regression from Tiki Barber and an aging receiving group, plus Eli Manning throwing passes twenty feet over his receivers' heads, and this could be a frustrating offense to watch. I think Philadelphia will be one of the surprise teams of the NFC. It's amazing how quickly people are writing off a team that won 48 games in the four years prior to last year. Last year was a completely unpredictable collapse. They were killed by injuries and Terrell Owens. Over, with a good shot to win this division.

NFC West
Seattle-10.5
Arizona-8
St. Louis-7
San Francisco-5

I've already covered most of my thoughts on the NFC West in an earlier post, but I'll paraphrase here. Seattle returns last year's NFC championship team nearly intact, if not improved, especially on defense. Combine this with a patsy schedule, and the Hawks should have home-field advantage through the playoffs. Over. Arizona is not nearly as good as the MSM wants them to be. They have a sexy fantasy team construction, versus the kind of team that wins real football games. Fitzgerald and Boldin are as good as anyone in the league, but Edgerrin James is due for a collapse after moving from the best line in the league to the worst. Under. St. Louis will be surprisingly terrible. Under. San Francisco seems just about right.

In conclusion, here are my best bets for the over/under: Tennesee (over), San Diego (over), Chicago (over), Minnesota (under), New Orleans (under), Dallas (under), Philadelphia (over), Seattle (over), Arizona (under), and St. Louis (under). Out of those ten, I'd say that five best bets are San Diego, Minnesota, New Orleans, Seattle, and St. Louis. The AFC seems to definitely be the more known commodity, with a whole lot less variability. Here are some of my favorite long shot bets: San Diego to win the Super Bowl at 18/1, and Philadelphia at 22/1. I'm not saying either of those teams are going to win it all, but I do think those are undervalued teams that would give good payouts, and that actually have outside chances to win it all. I also like Seattle at 11/1 to win it all. Atlanta at 30/1 to win it all or 13/1 to win the NFC might also be good extreme long shots.

Here's my playoff picks:

Division champs:
AFC: Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, New England, San Diego
NFC: Chicago, Carolina, Philadelphia, Seattle

Wild Cards:
AFC: Kansas City, Cincinnati
NFC: Atlanta, Washington

Seattle's definitely my pick to win the NFC, due to the fact that they'll probably have home-field through the playoffs. I think the AFC comes down to Indy, New England or San Diego, with San Diego upsetting Indianapolis in the AFC championship, then losing to the Hawks in Super Bowl XLI. You can hold me to it.