Week One NFL Picks

Bill Simmons did his NFL preview today, and while I am generally a fan and try to resist the Simmons bashing that tends to be so prevalent on these vast internets, I've got to call him out for today. Don't claim to spend so much time researching the upcoming season, and follow it up by writing a ridiculously half-assed treatment of the entire NFC, which as it currently stands, according to my calculations, comprises 50% of the NFL. St. Louis is your sleeper? Seahawks at 7-9? Dallas at 10-6 after he points out the T.O. related collapse that is bound to happen? Minnesota making the playoffs? At least he didn't jump on the Arizona bandwagon. I realize he's more of a humor columnist than anything, but he's still got a dream job and if he's going to do it half-assed, he probably shouldn't do it at all.

Anyway, the NFL season starts tomorrow. Isn't that fantastic? You know it is, especially if you're a compulsive gambler. Without further adieu, on to the week one picks, which I plan on doing throughout the season, unless I really suck ass, in which case I will quit to spare myself the (theoretical) embarassment I may suffer in front of my (theoretical) readership. Lines courtesy of Bodog.

Miami (-1.5) @ Pittsburgh

Miami has a ton of preseason hype, due to the signing of Daunte Culpepper, the expected emergence of Ronnie Brown, and a supposedly improved defense. Sports Illustrated went as far as predicting them as Super Bowl losers in their always laughable NFL preview. (When lumbering vestiges of the MSM attempt to become with "it", as SI has attempted in the last couple years with shorter sensationalist pieces by snarky writers, it's never good. It's like when MC Hammer went gangsta rap, dropped the "MC", then made a video wearing a speedo while sporting a struting erection that ended up banned by MTV. Please SI, do not put Peter King in a speedo.) This spread has swung six points since opening, due to Roethlisberger's appendectomy. My suspicion is that that's too far of a swing. I think I would still lay a couple points on Pittsburgh at home against Miami, even without Ben. Getting 1.5, I'm all over that. They won two games last year with Batch. He's actually not that bad. Pittsburgh.

Denver (-4) @ St. Louis

It's tempting to pick this as a let down game for a team coming off the AFC championship game, on the road against the Greatest Show on Turf, with a suspect running back platoon. Then I remember that St. Louis is going to really suck bad this year. Denver.

New York Jets (+2.5) @ Tennessee

Man, the Jets will be bad this year. And I think Tennessee will be improved, even with the odd QB situation they have. Tennessee.

Buffalo Bills (+9.5) @ New England

That's a huge spread. New England seems to get the benefit of the doubt because of the reputations of Brady and Belichick. They still have a ton of questions marks, especially at WR and their secondary. I think Buffalo sucks, and I might look bad, but I'm not ready to pass up the points. Buffalo.

Baltimore (+3) @ Tampa Bay

It's a good thing I'll be stuck in this warehouse on Sunday, so that there is no chance I end up watching this game. Tampa Bay.

Cincinnati (+2) @ Kansas City

It's just a damn shame that the Bengals' off-season has to come to a close. Cincinnati.

Seattle (-6.5) @ Detroit

This game has swung 3.5 points toward Seattle since it opened, so you know that all the morons are putting their money on the Hawks. I would normally go against this, but I think the Hawks will return with avengence to Jerome Bettis' hometown, leaving behind a trail of flames and degradation. Or maybe Detroit has always just looked like that. Seattle.

Atlanta (+6) @ Carolina

I think Atlanta's got the ability to surprise people, if Michael Vick ever decides to learn how to be an NFL QB. Maybe he'll do it this year, and stop robbing the Falcons blind. Atlanta's defense should be much improved over last year, and I could see this being a close game. Atlanta.

Philadelphia (-5.5) @ Houston

Philadelphia gets back on the playoff path.

New Orleans (+3) @ Cleveland

As much of a feel good story New Orleans has been throughout the off-season, they're still really bad. They might have enough offense to surprise a couple teams this year, and it is hard to have a truly terrible football team with a competent quarterback, but they are severely lacking in what it takes to win games. Cleveland.

Dallas (+2) @ Jacksonville

Dallas loses a close one on the road. Bledsoe makes a terrible crucial play, T.O.'s media sniping begins. Jacksonville.

Chicago (-3.5) @ Green Bay

Brett Favre's pursuit of the single-season interception record begins. Chicago.

San Francisco (+8) @ Arizona

Arizona is not that good, as I've already documented. San Fran will make it surprisingly close, maybe even win it. The Arizona bandwagon will become a little lighter. San Francisco.

Indianapolis (-3.5) @ New York Giants

Did you know that Eli and Peyton Manning are brothers? Indianapolis.

Minnesota (+4.5) @ Washington

It is unfortunate that no double-ended dildos will make an appearance during this game. Washington.

San Diego (-3) @ Oakland

I was at the Seahawks final preseason game against the Raiders. I do not need to further explain this pick. San Diego.

Thank God it's football season.