Week Four NFL Picks

Wednesday was the first week of classes at the U, so my output may drop off somewhat in the immediate future. Who knows, maybe it won't. I do have Fridays off, so I may use Fridays to put out more posts. Tomorrow I think I'll put up a post on the MLB playoffs (thanks to Rudee for the suggestion.) Baseball's my first love and I haven't gotten a chance to write about much yet, so I'm looking forward to it. I may do another post on what I would like to see from the Mariners this off-season.

It's looking increasingly like Mike Hargrove will be back for next season. Ugh. I'm not looking forward to that; Mike Hargrove has no business coaching a major league team at this point in his career. He's terrible with young players, is one of the worst abusers of the sacrifice bunt in baseball, his mismanagement of the bullpen is astounding, he's overly reliant on "proven veterans", etc. I could go on and on, and frankly I don't really want to, because I find it to be very depressing to dwell upon. I will say this, I think that the decision to retain Hargrove makes me severely pessimistic about the odds of a Mariners World Series team while the present front office group is in place. They've set a precedent of settling for less and focusing on putting a marketable team on the field, rather than a team that actually wins games.

Fuck it. M's are winning it all next year behind the co-Cy Young winners, Felix Hernandez and Daisuke Matsuzaka. On to the picks for week four:

Indianapolis (-9) @ New York Jets

This game is between two teams that will apparently attempt to go through this season without playing defense. There's not a team in the league that can win against Indy in a shootout, and I don't think that the Jets will be the team to test this theory. Indy's defense has been pretty beat up, and I do think the Jets should be able to score points through the air. I like Indy and the Over (46.5). Indy may be able to put up 47 points single-handedly.

San Diego (-2.5) @ Baltimore

I'd say this game's the undercard to this week's marquee matchup, Seattle-Chicago. I look at this one as a matchup between two great defenses, but San Diego also has a very good offense, while Baltimore's is merely run-of-the-mill. I don't think that Baltimore will be able to pitch a shutout; San Diego will be able to score at least a couple touchdowns (hell, the Browns put up 14 points against Baltimore last week), while Baltimore's struggle to put the ball in the endzone this year worries me. San Diego

Minnesota (+1) @ Buffalo

There were a couple lines this week that I thought were just weird looking. This was one of them. Does anyone think that Buffalo's a better team than Minnesota? I know that the home-field advantage is factored into the line, which essentially says that Minnesota's the better team on a neutral field, but Buffalo's exhibited an ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in two of three games this season. I actually like this Buffalo team, they're entertaining, have a lot of youth, could be a playoff team in a couple years, maybe sooner with the weak division they're playing in, but I'm gonna go with Minnesota here.

Dallas (-9.5) @ Tennessee

This was one of two games this week that took me the longest to figure out, along with Jacksonville-Washington. I don't debate that Dallas is the better team, but should they be nearly ten points better, on the road? The other issue here is the whole Terrell Owens fiasco. I don't often put much importance in issues like chemistry, the effect of off-field issues, etc., but there's no way that this isn't a huge distraction. As bad as Tennessee has looked, I think that they're improving; I thought they'd be an improved team in the preseason, until their quarterback fiasco began, but Collins/Young learn the offense a little better each week, and I don't think they're defense will keep playing this poorly. Tennessee

San Francisco (+7) @ Kansas City

Here's another weird line: No team with Damon Huard at quarterback should be laying seven points under any circumstance, home-field advantage or not. San Francisco's defense has been porous this year, but I think the overly-conservative Kansas City offense will make up for it. San Fran's exhibited an ability to put up points this season, and I think they'll at least keep this game close. San Francisco

New Orleans (+7.5) @ Carolina

Dear New Orleans,

I'm sorry for thinking that your team sucks real bad. Your defense looks frisky, and Deuce McAllister looks like he cares again with Reggie Bush as his decoy. Marques Colston was a great find. Sorry.

Sincerely,

CSG

This is a game between two teams that have done the exact opposite of their expectations. Carolina was handed the Super Bowl before the season started, but forgot to show up for their first two games, then squeaked by Tampa. New Orleans was supposed to be bad, but instead has rode a wave of magnanimous energy from across the country to a 3-0 record. The historical percentage of 3-0 teams that go to the playoffs? 65.7%. There's a big difference between a 2-0 and a 3-0 team. New Orleans

Arizona (+7) @ Atlanta

Atlanta worries me, because everything that could go wrong for them against New Orleans did. That was like a worst case scenario game for them. The offense was bad, the defense looked much worse than the first two games, and their special teams continued to be atrocious, something that tends to be overlooked when a team is winning games, but just looks ugly when a team's losing. Still, I was rider #1 on the Arizona schadenfreude bandwagon; in fact, I may be the conductor. Arizona is currently part of an unelite group of teams that is winless against the spread; I predict they'll stay there. Atlanta

Miami (-4) @ Houston

Here's another one of the confusing lines. Should Miami be laying points against anyone? I know that Houston is horrid, but I don't know if Miami could even score points on Houston at this point. I swear that everyone watching Miami play has their hands over their eyes and cotton stuffed deep into their ears, then during commercial breaks read the Sports Illustrated NFL preview edition. I might look bad with this one, but I'm going with Houston

Detroit (+5.5) @ St. Louis

I don't think St. Louis could have gotten a more ideal schedule to start the season. I don't trust either of these offenses to do much in this game, and I think St. Louis will shut down Detroit on defense. St. Louis, and I love the Under(43.5).

New England (+6) @ Cincinnati

I'm surprised this spread is this close after last Sunday's performances by each team. Cincy is still being should short on how good they are, while the New England dynasty may well be on life support. Cincinnati

Jacksonville (-2.5) @ Washington

Along with Dallas-Tennesee, this was the game that gave me the most difficulty. I liked Washington a lot preseason, but I haven't been impressed by them at all this year, even last week against Houston. I think it may ultimately hurt them to have the heat off of Mark Brunell for at least a couple more weeks after going 24/27 against Houston while throwing nothing but screen passes and dump-offs to running backs. I love the Jacksonville defense, but they're offense looks anemic. I think they'll find a way to score some points this week, though, and they should be able to shut Washington down. Jacksonville

Cleveland (-2.5) @ Oakland

I'm amazed that this line is only 2.5 points. Cleveland nearly beat Baltimore, who demolished Oakland. Cleveland's strength is their defense, which isn't saying much, but should be enough to stop Oakland. Oakland's strength is also defense, and Cleveland's weakness is their offense, so I don't anticipate a lot of scoring. Cleveland and the Under (34).

Seattle (+3.5) @ Chicago

Last week's Chicago-Minnesota game gave me a lot of confidence about this game. Minnesota has a good defense, but not as good as Seattle's, and they gave Rex Grossman fits all game. We've seen that as Grossman goes, Chicago goes. When he was on against Detroit and Green Bay, they looked unstoppable. Not so much against Minnesota. I think Seattle will be able to move the ball, and they have the benefit of using a lot of offensive sets that teams haven't had much time to scout. Plus, Shaun Alexander is praying for the Hawks, and he and the Big Man are real close. Seattle

Green Bay (+11) @ Philadelphia

Not a lot to say about this one. Philly's pretty good, Green Bay's pretty bad. I think there should be a lot of points scored, even though Green Bay doesn't have a great offense, due to the injuries in the Philadelphia defense. I like Philadelphia and the Over (47.5).

That's the picks. As always, put questions, comments, suggestions, slander in the comments. My best bets would be these games:

Indy (-9)
Philly (-11)
Cleveland (-2.5)
Minnesota (+1)

Green Bay-Philly over 47.5
Cleveland-Oakland under 34
Detroit-St. Louis under 43.5
NY Jets-Indy over 46.5