Week Three NFL Picks

Alright, so I had a big post up and just about ready to go, went to save it when I went to get some food, and it just so happened to be when Blogger was down for site maintenance, and I lost my whole faw-king post. Yeah, I'm well stropy about that. Anyway, I'm going to offer the Readers' Digest abridged version of what I had.

One of the stock boys in the warehouse, Chris (who I described in this earlier post in the entry at 10:58), got led out in cuffs earlier today. Apparently he had a warrant out for something, I have no clue what exactly, but it was major enough that they arrested him in Puyallup for something that happened in Lewis County. Even though I have had my fun at Chris's expense, he was a pretty good guy, all in all. He's 23, worked hard, never knew his father, has a young kid about to start school, was working to pay his child support. He's no saint, but there's honor in taking care of your kid and not being a complete piece of shit. So, Lewis County, cut the dude some slack, there's worse people out there. Unless he's a child molester. Then, by all means, throw the book at him.

So with that insight into the seamy underbelly of the Puyallup Fair, let's get on to the picks.

New York Jets (+5.5) @ Buffalo

Ok, so here's two teams who've been surprisingly not horrible. Buffalo's looked real good on defense, and Chad Pennington's looked back to normal after rotator cuff surgery. I think that Buffalo's strengths, their pass rush and pass defense in general, matches up well with New York's strength, their passing offense. The Jets are very reliant on yards after the catch because Pennington lacks the arm strength to get the ball down the field, and Buffalo's defensive speed should keep the YAC to a minimum. The Jets can't run the ball at all, and Buffalo should be able to put a couple good drives together to put up some points behind Willis McGahee. Buffalo

Cincinnati (+2) @ Pittsburgh

Cincy got hit hard by injuries last week, while Pittsburgh was beat by Jacksonville at their own game. I think Cincy is the better team here, and even with their beat-up receiving corps, I think they can score against Pittsburgh. Cincy also has an underrated defense, and Pittsburgh's offense isn't really in sync yet, with their diminished running game and Roethlisberger's tummy ache. Cincinnati

Jacksonville (+7) @ Indianapolis

Jacksonville looked great against Pittsburgh on Monday night, but I don't think they're quite at the level of the elite AFC teams, Indy, San Diego, and Cincinnati. They shut down Pittsburgh's offense, but I don't think Pittsburgh has a great offense, at least not yet. Also, I don't think Jacksonville's offense can keep up with Indy's in the RCA Dome. This should be an interesting game, but I think Indianapolis wins it.

Tennessee (+11) @ Miami

Stay away from this game if you're using real money. Both teams have looked terrible so far; Tennessee doesn't have a quarterback who knows their offense, Daunte Culpepper's trying to set a record for most untouched fumbles in a season, Miami can't get the ball to Ronnie Brown enough, Tennessee can't play defense. I think Miami should be able to put up points against the horrendous Tennessee defense, and I don't know if Tennessee will be able to score much. Miami

Washington (-4) @ Houston

Here's two teams that have been bad so far. Washington's been about equally poor on offense and defense, while Houston's actually been pretty good on offense while being awful on defense, probably the worst in the league. Washington should have Clinton Portis for this game, which should help them a lot. Hopefully they'll also remember to get the ball to Chris Cooley. It's going to be another long season for Houston if their defense is this bad again. Washington

Chicago (-3.5) @ Minnesota

This is being treated as a showdown between division rivals, but I think it's a case of a contender against a pretender. Minnesota is solid as long as Brad Johnson is healthy, but Chicago is at entirely different level as a team. They've got the best defense and special teams combination in the league, plus a offense that can finally move the ball and put up points. Minnesota has squeaked past Washington and Carolina without Steve Smith. They just aren't a great team, while Chicago might be. Chicago

Carolina (-3) @ Tampa Bay

Here's another game I would avoid. Carolina should have Steve Smith back, but you don't know if he's going to be the same player. Most of his talent is tied to his ability to gain yards after the catch. If he doesn't have the same quickness and agility as normal, he won't be nearly as effective. That said, just having him on the field should be enough of a distraction to help out their struggling offense. What makes me want to stay away from this game is a combination of several things: Everyone's going to be leaning toward Carolina, which is never a good sign, Tampa Bay can't possibly keep playing this poorly, and they're at home. I'm still going to go with Carolina, but an upset wouldn't surprise me.

Green Bay (+6.5) @ Detroit

I think these are two teams that are about equally bad. This spread is too large. Green Bay's strength, their passing offense, matches up well with Detroit's weakness, passing defense. I also don't feel very confident in Detroit's ability to put up enough points on offense to justify a spread like this. I could see Green Bay win this outright. Green Bay

Baltimore (-6.5) @ Cleveland

Baltimore is due for a let-down game, but I don't think that this is the week. The Cleveland offense is terrible, and Baltimore will absolutely eat them alive. It'll be difficult for Cleveland to reach double digits. I don't think Baltimore will have a problem putting together a couple scoring drives, and a defensive touchdown wouldn't surprise me. I think this'll be an easy cover. Baltimore

St. Louis (+4.5) @ Arizona

I would just like to say that I think both just aren't very good. St. Louis can't get the ball into the endzone, with 24 of their 31 points coming via field goal. They're like last year's Cardinals in that regard (that's not really a team you want to be mentioned alongside historically.) Arizona has the same problems on offense that they have every year --- they can't block anyone, as Edgerrin James' 3.1 yards per carry and 8 sacks of Kurt Warner through two games will testify to. Without the blocking to get their supposedly high-flying offense off the ground, Arizona won't be able to score too many points, and St. Louis has looked like they have a decent defense this year, though it remains to be seen if that will hold up outside of St. Louis, as they have traditionally been much worse defensively on the road. I think this game may end up low scoring, and I see St. Louis keeping it close and possibly coming away with a victory. St. Louis

New York Giants (+3.5) @ Seattle

I got a question about this game in the comment thread for the week two review post from my friend Rudee. Here's how I responded:

"People will remember the Giants comeback from last week, but they forget that the Giants got absolutely killed for three quarters last week, then had a bunch of crazy plays go their way, recovered a bunch of fumbles, got the benefit of a couple calls/moronic penalties by the Eagles, essentially a lot of lucky plays ended up going their way, plays that don't necessarily reflect their true skill level. Also, the Eagles couldn't run the ball at all to run out the clock because Andy Reid kept calling the same run into the middle for zero yards. I don't see the Seahawks running into this problem if we're ahead. The Hawks have a better defense than the Eagles, in my opinion, and I don't see them getting burnt so bad if they can't get a pass rush. I also think that the Hawks will be able to pass on the Giants all day long because the Giants have been terrible against the pass so far. I think that the Seahawks win, and that the game won't be as close as most people expect."

Because I wrote this morning, I think I'm going to stick with this. The Giants pass defense looks awful to start the season, and they haven't been able to pressure the quarterback like they could last year. Osi Umenyiora has been surprisingly quiet, while Michael Strahan and LaVar Arrington are showing the effects of age and injury, respectively. (LaVar Arrington is also incredibly stupid. Just wanted to get that in as a possible reason for his decline in play.) I'm interested to see how much the Hawks use four receiver sets this week with Deion Branch available, as this would seem to be a great method to exploit the thin Giants secondary. I think they'll use three and four receiver sets almost exclusively due to the injuries to Jerramy Stevens and Itula Mili. The Hawks will have Pork Chop Womack out for about six weeks, which may actually be a blessing in disguise, as Womack as looked like one of the weaker members of their line so far, and it gets Chris Spencer, future stud, into the game. Seahawks

Philadelphia (-6) @ San Francisco

The fact that this line is as low as it is says a lot about the improvements San Francisco appears to have made this season. I like seeing San Francisco have a competitive team because when I was younger they were the non-Seahawks team I liked the most, as I was a big Steve Young fan. I haven't liked them since they entered the same division as the Hawks, but I think having more competitive teams makes the NFL more enjoyable in general. That said, the Niners haven't played anyone yet, with the first two games against Arizona and St. Louis. I think Philly will be able to exploit San Francisco's weak defense, and I don't think this game will be very close. I think the Eagles of the first three quarters of last week will be the team that decides to show up, rather than the fumbling, penalty-prone and overly-conservative play-callers of the fourth quarter and overtime. Philadelphia

Denver (+7) @ New England

Ooh, a rematch from last year's playoffs. What intrigue. What's too bad is that neither one of these teams has looked particularly good so far. New England's been mediocre, but Denver's been God-awful. I know I said it last week, but I think Denver's a solid team still, and I think that Jake Plummer will bounce back. (If I say it enough, it might come true.) I like Denver in this one. And if they don't cover, I'll never pick them again.

Oakland (+10) @ Bye

Ok, that's a cheap shot. But I think Andrew Walter's just threw his second pick against the bye week.

Atlanta (-4) @ New Orleans

This is the week when all my New Orleans bashing comes through, as they are exposed when they finally play a good team. Atlanta should be able to run on New Orleans all day after running over Carolina and Tampa. Vick plays better on turf, and no one has been able to stop the spread option look that Atlanta's sporting, which is a fucking brilliant use of Mike Vick. He's never been used right in his career. He's one of the best athletes in the league, and he's got an inaccurate cannon for an arm. Keep the ball in his hands as much as possible. It never made sense to put him in a system where he needs to make short, accurate passes as quickly as possible. Would you put Peyton Manning in the wishbone? NO. So don't put Vick in the west-coast offense. This may be the year he becomes the quarterback everyone thought he was two years ago. Atlanta

So that's my picks. My reviews on about the first half of the games ended up somewhat truncated due to losing all that work when I went to eat, so if anyone wants further explanations or rationales for my picks, feel free to ask in the comments. I said I'd offer my best bets up also, and here they are:

Chicago (-3.5)
Seattle (-3)
Philadelphia (-6)
Atlanta (-4)

I also like the under in Chicago-Minnesota (34.5), the over on Philadelphia-San Francisco (42), the under on St. Louis-Arizona (44.5), and the under on Atlanta-New Orleans (42). Happy gambling!