Fun with (purely hypothetical) Gambling, Part One

One of my favorite things about an upcoming sport season is making predictions about how each team will perform. There's nothing quite like nailing a sleeper pick that no one else is talking about, like last year when I predicted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would make the playoffs. On the flip side, there's nothing like making a prediction that turns out to be completely asinine. Last year I actually thought the Houston Texans (the 2-14 Houston Texans) would compete for one of the AFC wildcard slots. Oh well. As long as you're not involved with vindicative bookies, it's fun.

I was looking at the NFL future lines earlier at Bodog, and started thinking about the Over/under lines for season wins. Most seemed about right on to me, but others looked like they could be good opportunities to make some money, and by money I mean not real, material, money, but more like a heightened sense of self-satifaction. Because placing bets on professional sports will ultimately lead to a life of poverty, baldness, and vindicative bookies. Here's my rundown, division by division, team by team, with over/under wins next to the team:

AFC North
Pittsburgh-10
Cincinnati-9
Baltimore-8
Cleveland-6.5

These all seem about right on. No arguments here. I guess if you're a Pittsburgh homer, you could say that their line seems low, but this was an 11 win team last year that's bringing back almost the exact same team, and faces a tougher schedule. It'll be interesting to see if they're willing to let Big Ben and his reconstructed face open up on offense with Jerome Bettis returning to Detroit. Because that's where he's from.

AFC South
Indianapolis-11.5
Jacksonville-9
Tennessee-5.5
Houston-5.5

The o/u on Indy seems about right, and while Jacksonville's looks low for a team coming off a 12 win season, but they killed a bad schedule, and were a little lucky to boot. Tennessee looks like a good bet for the over. They were hurt by injuries last year, and also had a young defense that was horrid. They made some pickups on defense that should help, and they should also be improved with experience. And come on, they only need to win 6 games. Houston still sucks, but I don't know if they're bad enough to go with the under.

AFC East
New England-10.5
Miami-9
Buffalo-6.5
NYJ-6

No argument with those numbers for New England and Miami. New England's may seem low at first glance, but then you see how old most of their core is, and that their secondary is still a mess, and wonder if they might just fall apart. Brady and Belichick get the benefit of the doubt though. Buffalo and the Jets could be good bets for the under, but I wouldn't be too confident in those picks.

AFC West
Denver-10
Kansas City-9.5
San Diego-9
Oakland-6.5

Denver and Kansas City are about right. If I were forced to choose, I would with the "under" on Denver and the "over" on KC. San Diego is definitely "over." They were one of the better teams in football last year, something that is obscured by the fact that they failed to make the playoffs. They won 9 games last year with the NFL's most difficult schedule, and underplayed their Pythagorean record by almost 2 wins, which is usually the result of bad luck. Their schedule is much easier, as the get to play the NFC West this year. I don't think that the drop off in play from Drew Brees to Phillip Rivers will be that great. I have no clue what to think about Oakland, honestly. They really weren't quite as bad their record from last year suggests, and getting rid of Norv Turner will do wonders for them. Still, they've entered the Aaron Brooks era, and there's no good way that that will end well.

Tomorrow I should have Part Two, the NFC.