Thanksgiving football picks/More awful MLB signings

It's technically Thanksgiving right now, so "happy Thanksgiving" to anyone who may read this. This is my favorite holiday, by far, and I'm looking forward to doing some overeating. Not to brag, but I'll put my mother's Thanksgiving meal up against all-comers. It would definitely be my last meal if I was on death row.

Last week's picks went pretty well: 9-6-1, taking me back to .500 for the season. I'm just going to put up my picks for the Thanksgiving games right now; Friday or Saturday I'll have the rest of the picks up. An extra game's been added this year to the Thanksgiving slate. In addition to the games Detroit and Dallas always play, Kansas City-Denver is also playing. Apparently KC's owner got screwed over with regards to the Thanksgiving game back in the 70's, and this is a correction of such an egregious injustice.

Here's the picks: Miami (-2.5) over DETROIT, DALLAS (-11) over Tampa Bay, and KANSAS CITY (Pk) over Denver. I like the under (38) for KC-Denver. Detroit is just awful, while Miami looks a little better each week; I'm going reverse psychology on Dallas because they kill me everytime I pick against them, and I think KC can slug it out with Denver and win. They've got one of the best home-field advantages in the league.

By the way, I was debating which contract was worse, Soriano, 136 for 8, or Juan Pierre 45 for 5, when along comes Gary Matthews, Jr. to trump them both. 50 million dollars over 5 years for a player who's had one good season, and did it while playing in the best offensive environment in the American League. The only difference between Gary Matthews, Jr. last year and previous years when he was merely a good fourth outfielder was a completely unsustainable jump in batting average. In 2005 Matthews hit .255. Last year he hit .313. Looking beyond the deceptive stat of batting average, it becomes clear that Matthews was basically the same player in 2005 and 2006. In 2005, in 526 PA's, he hit line drives 16.8% of the time, struck out 17.1% of the time, walked 8.9% of the time, and homered 3.2% of the time. In 2006, in 690 PA's, 18.8% line drives, 14.3% K's, 8.4% BB's, and 2.8% HR's. He hit 2% more line drives, didn't strike out quite as much, walked slightly less, and had nearly identical power numbers (.181 ISO in 2005, .182 ISO in 2006). 2% more LD's and 2.8% fewer K's is not enough to correspond to a 58 point jump in batting average. Here's the reason for the change from Gary Matthews, fourth outfielder, to Gary Matthews, borderline all-star: in 2006, 34.9% of the balls he put in play became hits, while in 2005, only 28.3% did. This is a massive jump that basically explains the jump in batting average, and why he suddenly became "good" in 2006. And still, is the season he put up last year, even if he could do that year in and year out, which he can't, worth 10 million dollars a year for the seasons in which he'll be 32, 33, 34, 35, and 36? One must also account for the drop in production that will result in moving from a great hitters environment to a decidely mediocre one. Also, even if he's a defensive asset right now, will he be one when he's 36? This is definitely the worst contract of this offseason so far. I'm just glad that it's being given by a team in the Mariners division because this contract should end up as a real albatross.