Week Five NFL Picks

I'm ready to put last week behind me. It is over, in the past, done. I'm moving on. That said, it seems like the perfect week for the Hawks to have a bye. Also, I left some stats out of my last post. Here they are:

Home vs. Spread: 10-4 last week. Now 30-29-1 against the spread for the season. Home teams are now 31-29 overall.

Favorites vs. Spread: 8-6 last week. 26-33-1 for the season. 37-21 overall.

NFC-AFC vs. Spread. 2-2 last week. NFC is 6-5 against the AFC, 6-5 against the spread.

And here's something new; this is the NFL standings, by record against the spread:

AFC East AFC North

Buffalo 3-1 Baltimore 3-1
NYJ 3-1 Cincinnati 3-1
NE 2-2 Cleveland 2-2
Miami 0-4 Pittsburgh 1-2

AFC West AFC South

San Diego 2-1 Indianapolis 2-1-1
Kansas City 2-1 Jacksonville 2-1-1
Denver 1-2 Houston 1-3
Oakland 0-3 Tennessee 1-3

NFC East NFC North

Philadelphia 3-1 Chicago 3-1
Dallas 2-1 Minnesota 3-1
Washington 2-2 Green Bay 1-3
NYG 2-1 Detroit 1-3

NFC West NFC South

St. Louis 3-1 New Orleans 4-0
Seattle 2-2 Atlanta 3-1
San Francisco 2-2 Tampa Bay 1-2
Arizona 0-4 Carolina 0-4

Interesting. Miami, Oakland, Arizona, and Carolina have either made or lost a lot of money for people, depending on whether you're going for or against them. I imagine there aren't many people happy with Miami, Arizona, or Carolina. Hopefully the good people of New Orleans have been putting a lot of money on the Saints. On to the picks.

Tennessee (+18.5) @ Indianapolis

I would normally call this spread a joke, but it's completely justified. Tennessee is absolutely awful. They can't run or pass the ball, and they can't stop the run or the pass. Just ugly. Indianapolis. I would tentatively recommend the over, because Indy should score 30-40 points easily, but I don't know if Tennessee will be able to score. We'll see.

Washington (+5) @ New York Giants

I'm pretty excited about this game. There will be a lot of scoring, guarantee it. Neither team can stop the pass, while both teams can throw the ball. Both teams can run the ball, too, and the strength of both defenses is against the run. Really good matchups. I think Washington should be able to keep it close, maybe win it outright. Washington and the Over (45.5)

Detroit (+6.5) @ Minnesota

This should be interesting. Minnesota is pretty bad on offense, while Detroit can't stop the pass at all, but is very good against the run. Minnesota's strength is their defense, while Detroit is mediocre on offense, but is coming off a big offensive game. Minnesota.

Tampa Bay (+6.5) @ New Orleans

The Bruce Gradkowski era is upon us, and I can't contain my excitement. I'm surprised this spread isn't larger. The rationale seems to be that it should be a low scoring game, but I think New Orleans isn't getting enough respect, still. They're 3-1, and hung tough with Carolina last week, and they may have the best home-field advantage this year. New Orleans

St. Louis (-2.5) @ Green Bay

Another spread I'm surprised isn't larger. I think St. Louis wins this easy. Their defensive strength, guarding the pass, matches up well with Green Bay's offensive strength. Green Bay can't run the ball, and St. Louis should be able to pass on them. St. Louis

Miami (+9.5) @ New England

There's no way in hell I take Miami here. Miami's going to have to beat me for about three weeks in a row, badly, for me to change my opinion of them. Terrible offense, and the Culpepper-Joey Harrington quarterback controversy is officially on. This is hi-larious. New England

Buffalo (+10) @ Chicago

I like this Buffalo team, but I don't know if they can hang with Chicago. I actually think this'll be closer than the Seattle game (This is the last time I ever mention that game, I promise), but Chicago's defense is just too good. I think the over/under is a little low on this game (34.5), but I'm not sure I'd put money on it. Buffalo's been able to throw the ball well, and their defense is much better against the pass, but both of these clash with Chicago's strengths, stopping the pass (and the run) and throwing the ball. Chicago

Cleveland (+7.5) @ Carolina

It's very tempting to ride Carolina, but Cleveland is just awful. I don't see why this spread is comparable to the spread from the New Orleans game last week. New Orleans is a much better team than Cleveland. Cleveland's bad on offense, but they seem to be able to score some points. Carolina's defense has been surprisingly bad this year, as most people figured their defense to be their strength going into the year. I like Carolina and the Over (37.5)

New York Jets (+6.5) @ Jacksonville

We'll see this week if the Jets are for real. Hanging with Indy's bad defense at home is much different than sticking with Jacksonville on the road. New York can throw the ball, but can't run, and the Jets don't play defense very well. Jacksonville threw the ball really well last week, and Washington's defense is much better than New York's. At the same time, Washington moved the ball easily against Jacksonville through the air, and New York can throw. I think there will be more scoring in this one than people expect. I like Jacksonville and the Over (37).

Kansas City (-3.5) @ Arizona

I don't see why this spread is 3.5 points. This is going to be a blowout. Does no one else realize just how bad Arizona is? Seriously, they're terrible. Kansas City just beat San Francisco by 41 points, and I think Arizona and San Francisco are very comparable teams. I know KC did that at home, but home field advantage isn't worth 35 points a game. This is a mortal lock. Larry Johnson should run for about 500 yards. Kansas City

Oakland (+3.5) @ San Francisco

I'm not sure what to say about this one. I don't know if anyone outside of the Bay area will watch this; literally zero people outside of California will watch this game. The spread is calling these teams about even, giving the 3.5 to SF for home field. I think San Fran is definitely better than Oakland, so I'll go with them. San Francisco

Dallas (+2) @ Philadelphia

I really don't care to hear another word about this game. I think it's time for a moratorium on all Terrell Owens-related stories. Compounded with the fact that the Cowboys are involved, my least favorite team, and I just don't care. I think Philly wins this game pretty easily. I think Dallas is a very overrated team, and no one's giving Philly enough credit yet. Philadelphia

Pittsburgh (+3.5) @ San Diego

I think San Diego wins this game with ease. The combination of Pittsburgh's offense and San Diego defense makes me think there won't be many points for the Steelers. Pittsburgh's defense is very good, but I think San Diego should be able to score on them. I like San Diego. I don't think there will be much scoring, so I also like the Under (37).

Baltimore (+4) @ Denver

I haven't given Baltimore much credit this year, mostly because I think their offense isn't very good, especially their running game, but I like them this week. Denver still hasn't shown me much. Their defense is good, but I don't know about their offense yet, which is not a very good thing to have going into a game against a defense like Baltimore's. Denver may win it, but I don't see them winning by more than a field goal. Baltimore

So, that's my picks. I feel good about these picks, even though it seems like it's a little favorite heavy. Here's my best bets:

Kansas City (-3.5)
St. Louis (-2.5)
New Orleans (-6.5)
Philadelphia (-2)

Pittsburgh-San Diego (37) Under
NYJ-Jacksonville (37) Over
Cleveland-Carolina (37.5) Over
Washington-NYG (45.5) Over

Give me yr. thoughts in the comments.