Week Five Review, Week Six Picks

Last week went much better. 9-5, 40-33-1 on the season. Not a whole lot to complain about; Baltimore-Denver was like a coin flip that came up heads instead of tails. Oh well. Not sure what happened to Washington; I'd stay away from them until they start playing less erratically. Kansas City kicked a field goal from the one yard line instead of going for it, or else they'd have covered. I don't know about Indy. They've been solid gold in the past, at least in the regular season, but not so much this year. Their defense is awful, and I think the offense is sandbagging it. That's the only possible explanation for scoring 14 points against the Tennessee defense in the RCA Dome. As for New Orleans, you can't possibly expect Bruce Gradkowski to play that well. I would pick the Saints in that same situation one million times out of one million.

Here are a couple random thoughts from the last week. Now that the Yankees have decided to keep Joe Torre around, there's no way A-Rod stays in New York. Someone has to take the fall; that's how the Yankees work. It's not going to be Torre, and it won't be golden boy Jeter. A-Rod's the easiest target. I think he ends up with one of the Los Angeles teams, with the Angels as the early front runner. Both those teams have prospects, are willing to spend money, are more forgiving media markets, etc. If there was one thing I wish would happen in this whole process, I wish it was this: absolutely no concessions should be made to the Yankees. I have never understood why any team would want to do anything that helps the Yankees. There is no way that the Yankees should get more than thirty cents on the dollar if they trade A-Rod. If they think they have to trade A-Rod, so be it, but I wouldn't give them a thing. Take at most half their share of the contract (about sixteen million), but I wouldn't give them more than one prospect, and it shouldn't be your top guy. The Yankees are in a different situation than the Rangers were when they traded A-Rod. The Rangers had to free up money because A-Rod's contract hamstrung them. This is the Yankees. Don't help them out monetarily, and don't give them young pitching. They actually have a pretty good pitching in their minor league system. Phillip Hughes is one of the top three minor league starters in baseball. It's like they're forced to trade A-Rod. If they don't get the offer they want, I guess they'll just have to learn to live with him, or pay him 16 mil to sit at home.

I hate the new clock rules in college football. What was lost in the aftermath of the Huskies debacle last week was that the situation would not have even arose if it wasn't for the time ran off the clock during the kickoff and as soon as the ball is set before the first play of the drive. That was at least ten seconds lost, easily, that should have still been on the clock before the last non-play.

I haven't had a lot of time to blog this week because of school, etc. I won't be around this weekend because I'll be in Portland to see Sufjan Stevens and explore. I'm pretty excited. I saw TV on the Radio at the Showbox a little over a week ago, and it was one of the best shows I've ever seen, and I'm hoping S.S. comes close. And if you don't know Sufjan Stevens or TV on the Radio, you should probably find out. It'll be worth it. On to the picks, which won't be quite as long this week:

Cincinnati (-5.5) @ Tampa Bay

I think Cincinnati should be able to bounce back coming off their bye week and the blowout against New England. I don't think Gradkowski will play quite as well as last week, and I think Cincinnati is a better team than New Orleans, even though this games in Tampa. Cincinnati

Tennessee (+10) @ Washington

I think last week's game was more a case of Indy playing terrible instead of Tennessee turning a corner. I don't think Washington will play as poorly as they did last week, either. Washington

Houston (+13) @ Dallas

I'm kinda tempted to pick Houston. I think I have an irrational soft spot for the Texans. Maybe it's that dreamy David Carr. Anyway, the rational part of my mind tells me there's no way that Houston's defense stops Dallas. There's way too many double-digit spreads this week, appropos of nothing. Never a good thing. I think Houston may be able to keep it marginally close; it's a rivalry game and crazy stuff happens in these games. Houston

Buffalo (Pk) @ Detroit

Buffalo's been pretty good passing the ball, in non-Chicago games. Detroit may have the worst pass defense in the league; Houston could probably make a run at them for worst in the league. Buffalo's pass defense matches up well with Detroit's pass offense. Buffalo

Seattle (-3) @ St. Louis

I'm expecting the pre-Chicago Hawks to show up. I'm not a believer in the Rams; they had good luck to get Denver in week one, and haven't played anyone since. They throw the ball pretty well, which worries me with the Hawks pass defense, but I don't think the Hawks will have too much trouble. Seattle

New York Giants (+3) @ Atlanta

The Giants looked really good last week against the Skins. I give them the edge in this game, I think they'll win outright. Atlanta can't throw the ball, which is the Giants weakness. Giants are real good against the run, and their offense can throw or run with anyone. Giants

Philadelphia (-3) @ New Orleans

I pulled a complete 180 with regard to the Saints, but I think Philly's too strong this week. Great passing game, great pass rush, I like their secondary, just a really good team. Philadelphia.

Carolina (+3) @ Baltimore

I think Baltimore is just a better team than Carolina, even with a crummy offense. Carolina is now 1-4 ATS, and I think it'll be 1-5 after this week. Baltimore and the Under (33.5)

Miami (+2.5) @ New York Jets

Miami looked like a real team last week. I think Joey Harrington could actually work out for them as long as he does the game manager thing and limits his mistakes. I think the Jets are coming back to Earth; Dolphins win this outright. Miami

San Diego (-10) @ San Francisco

Not much to say here. San Diego should win easy. San Fran can't stop anyone. San Diego

Kansas City (+7) @ Pittsburgh

Here's my big "upset" prediction, even though it's not much of an upset. Everyone's saying Pittsburgh will bounce back this week, but they're running into a tough opponent. I think KC's an underrated team with a really good defense so far, while Pittsburgh's offense has been terrible. I think KC will keep it close and could win it outright. Kansas City

Oakland (+15) @ Denver

I can't see Oakland score more than a touchdown, so Denver's got to score 22 points to be sure. You know what, I'm going with Oakland. Call me crazy; I'm not ready to be on the Denver bandwagon just yet. This pick seems a little too easy, like Tennessee-Indy last week. I don't think it's smart to lay double-digits in so many games. Oakland

Chicago (-10) @ Arizona

One of my favorite parts apart doing this is that every week I know that I can pick against Arizona and know that it's a lock. Chicago

There you go. Only thirteen games this week. I like Chicago (-10), Kansas City (+7), Philly (-3), and the Giants (+3). All road teams. Hmm. I like the Carolina-Baltimore Under (33.5), Oakland-Denver Under (36), Houston-Dallas Over (43), and the Tennessee-Washington Over (39).