NFL Playoffs: Conference Semi-Finals!!!

Well, I went just 1-3 in the Wild-Card round, but I guess it could of been worse. I'm actually fine with the picks I made, and would probably make them again. It's kind of hard to predict that the Colts would come out and stuff Larry Johnson all day, while Trent Green decides to have one of the worst games of his life. The Eagles were in position to cover nearly all game long, but decided to let the Giants stick around and nearly make a comeback. As to the Seahawks, I'm just happy they won. I've come to the conclusion that they're kind of shitty, yet lucky, which I guess isn't that bad. Better lucky than good, right? I did nail the Jets-Pats game. I was annoyed early on when the Jets were keeping the game close, because I didn't want to see them get a cheap cover, but the Pats came through, thus ending the season of one of the least impressive 10-6 teams of all time.

The Jets had a lot of luck this season due to scheduling, etc., but I believe luck plays a much bigger role in the NFL than some would like to admit, and I believe the Jets have a young nucleus that could be very good in the future, if they play their cards right. Their offensive line is very talented and had two rookies on it this year, I like their receivers, and I think Chad Pennington will continue to win games if he's healthy. I like to make fun of how weak his arm appears to be, but at the same time I think that arm strength is one of the more overrated aspects in a quarterback. I thought it was funny when Jay Cutler's draft stock went up so much last year as the result of him having the strongest arm in the draft, based on velocity. How frequently does a quarterback throw a pass as hard as he possibly can in a game? Michael Vick has one of the strongest arms I've seen, but it doesn't matter when he's skipping passes to his receivers and forcing balls to Alge Crumpler in triple coverage. I'd rather have an accurate quarterback who makes good decisions as to when to throw the ball any day, and that's the category that Pennington falls into.

I really like this slate of second-round games. Every game is intriguing. I think Patriots-Chargers will be a great game, I love the combination of the Ravens defense and the Colts offense, I think Saints-Eagles could go either way, and I think Bears-Seahawks could be a strong upset possibility. The Bears seem to be moving backwards, while the Hawks seem to be improving, and they seem to have luck and momentum on their side. They also have experience playing in bad weather, which is important. Anyway, let's get down to the match-ups, with lines from Bodog.com, over/under listed after the teams:

Indianapolis (+4) @ Baltimore (42)

Best defense in the league against the best offense. What's more, Baltimore might be the best team against the run AND the pass, while Indy combines the best pass attack with one of the best run games. A definite unstoppable force versus immovable object game. I think what will be underlooked though, is the other main match-up, the Baltimore offense against the Colts defense. I think this is what will ultimately decide the game. Baltimore isn't great on offense, but they can do enough to win. Indy's defense, on the other hand, won't be able to do enough to win, in my opinion. I believe their defensive success in the first round against KC was mostly due to awful coaching by Herm Edwards, rather than their defense turning a corner. I think Baltimore will be able to grind the ball against Indy, and do enough through the air with play-action to keep Indy from stacking the front, as they were able to do against KC. My money's on Baltimore

New England (+4.5) @ San Diego (47)

I think this could be a great game. It seems like no one knows what's going to happen, even Vegas, which has given the official "We have no clue" spread, 4.5. San Diego's the best offense outside of the state of Indiana, but New England has a strong defense. I think the weakest of the four main units in this game is San Diego's defense. They're pretty strong against the pass, due to a great pass rush, but they have holes against the run, and the Pats are a strong running team. My pick all week long has been Whale's Vagina, but I've started to waver. It's the Marty Schottenheimer factor. He terrifies me. He's choked so often in the play-offs over the years, going way too conservative on offense to win. At the same time though, I don't know if he's had a team as strong as this one, and LaDainian Tomlinson is at the peak of his game. I'm going to stick with my initial reaction of Chargers, but I think this is my shakiest pick.

Philadelphia (+6) @ New Orleans (49)

This line has moved quite a bit this week; I think it opened at either 4 or 4.5. They've played once this year, with New Orleans winning 27-24 at home. I get the feeling that this game might come down to a field goal, so I would take Philadelphia and the points. I think either team could win this outright, and six points is just too large of a line. Both teams are really good offenses, and I think Philadelphia might have actually improved with Donovan McNabb out, not because Jeff Garcia's a better quarterback, but because it makes the offense more reliant on Bryan Westbrook. Philly could be scary next year with McNabb in, as long as Andy Reid remembers to get the ball to Westbrook more often. As good as Philly is, the Saints are probably their equal on offense. I do think Philly is slightly better defensively, though losing CB Lito Sheppard to injury really hurts them. I think New Orleans can have a lot of success in three and four wide receiver sets, though they have injury issues of their own, as Joe Horn may not play. I think there's going to be a lot of points in this game, and it'll be exciting as hell. Definitely watch it if you have the chance. I think it'll come down to a field goal.

Seattle (+9) @ Chicago (37)

As I mentioned last week, I am a shameless Seahawks homer. I don't think I'm irrational when it comes to them, but I may be a tad over optimistic in my evaluations of them. That said, I think they have a legitimate shot in this game, and I think they're a great pick to cover. I have worked to suppress the first Bears-Hawks game from this season, and ultimately, I don't think that examining that game is a very good method of looking at this one. These are very different teams than they were in week 4, when they first met. Chicago is not nearly as scary on defense with Tommie Harris and Mike Brown out, and Tank Johnson's various, ahem, distractions. The loss of Harris creates a cascade effect through the entire defense; they don't get as effective of an initial surge up front with him out, which hurts against the run and the pass. Without as strong a pass rush from the front four, they need to blitz more, which leaves them susceptible to the run and to big plays passing. On offense, Sexy Rexy Grossman has lost his confidence, and their passing game has been scaled back significantly, which actually benefits a Seahawk defense that is prone to giving up big plays. I was pretty impressed by the Seahawk defense last week, which really only gave up 13 points (Dallas returned a kickoff) to a very strong offense. They reminded me of the defense of last year, good at bending but not breaking, clutching up in big situations, pressuring the quarterback, and swarming to the ball. I think that the impact of losing Marcus Trufant and Herndon is overstated, because neither corner played very well at any point this year. As a team, the Hawks have been much more consistent the last few weeks, and they seem to be steadily improving. I think they should, at least, be able to keep this game close, and I think they could win it outright. Plus, there's a good chance it snows, which makes any game much cooler and important looking. Seahawks and the points!!! And I like the over!!!

Well, there you go. I plan on being firmly planted on the couch all weekend, drinking America's finest beer of 1893, Pabst Blue Ribbon. I think this could be a memorable weekend. Now, if only Sexy Rexy Grossman could take some pointers on "gunslinger's mentality" from Tony Romo.