NFL Playoffs

The first week of the NFL playoffs will soon be upon us. I closed out the NFL season on a pretty strong run of picks, riding nearly all underdogs to an 11-5 week 17, after going 8-8 in week 16. My final regular season record: 135-119-2. Sixteen games over .500, for a winning percentage of 53.1%. In addition, I predicted the winners of six of the eight divisions; I doubt anyone alive hit more than that, because no one thought New Orleans would win the NFC South over Carolina, the consensus preseason Superbowl pick, hardly anyone picked the Eagles in the East, and no one thought Baltimore would be as good, or Pittsburgh as mediocre, as those two teams were.

I think I started to figure this year out by the end of the season, as in the last four weeks I went 39-25, hitting nearly 61%. Not too bad for my first full season of picks. Here's the thing: if I had theoretically placed twenty dollars on every single game of this NFL season, here's how much money I would of won: $185, barely ten dollars a week. Unless you can consistently hit at least 55% or more of all games, betting on everything is definitely not a good strategy. It's much better to pick your games and capitalize on skewed lines, such as is the case with the pre-season over/under lines, which tend to be routinely off, where I ended up hitting 7 out of the 10 picks I recommended, with the help of the late season collapse of the Dallas Cowboys (I loved, absolutely loved, to write that sentence). Or just pick every underdog, if it's another year like this one.

Now that the playoffs are here, it's time to really prove one's mettle. These are the games that count. I'm starting to sound like Joe Theismann. Here's my picks for the first round match-ups, with the glorious return of extended commentary!!! (Lines from USA Today):

Kansas City (+6.5) @ Indianapolis (51)

I like this game's potential a lot. It'll be built up as Peyton Manning versus Larry Johnson, but there's a lot more going on here. Indy still has the best offense in football, and it seems like they have for a long time now, but their defense has severely regressed this season, especially against the run. Kansas City isn't quite as good on offense as they have been in the past, but they still have Larry Johnson, arguably the best running back in football not named LaDainian Tomlinson. It's a shame that Herm Edwards has so stubbornly handed LJ the ball 416 times on the year, basically guaranteeing a catastrophic injury next season, but we'll talk about that when next season comes around. Indy's defense is about average against the pass, and maybe the worst in football against the run, while KC is good running or passing the ball, though they probably don't throw the ball enough. KC's defense is fairly mediocre against the run and the pass, while Indy is the best passing team in football, and one of the better running teams, though this fact is often overlooked. I think there's a number of possible outcomes to this match up. I could see KC run the ball effectively and keep the game close, or maybe even sneak out a win by effectively shortening the game and keeping the Indy offense off the field, or I could see Indy be too overwhelming for the KC defense and win easily. I get the feeling that Indy's sand-bagged at times this year, and may have some tricks up their sleeve, but on the otherhand they've been unable to stop the run even when they know it's coming. I don't think I'm comfortable taking Indy and laying the points when they can't stop the run. KC might not win outright, but I think it'll be close. Kansas City

Dallas (+3) @ Seattle (46.5

Really, you can stop thanking me for predicting the collapse of Tony Romo. I don't have anything against the guy per se, but we live in a time when there's just too much media hype (as evidenced by this blog) to fairly evaluate players, especially young players who get the phenom tag. Because outlets like The Worldwide Leader feel the need to push storylines for the sake of ratings, rather than offering evenhanded analysis, you end up with the short-lived phenomenon of Tony Romo, greatest quarterback to ever live. Ever. In History. The same thing happened with Rex Grossman, certified gunslinger, earlier in the season. Of course, the storylines end up being false, because no one alive can live up to the hype the media has created, the scouting reports and defensive schemes around the league get caught up to date, and the players end up crashing back to Earth. Full disclosure: I am a shameless Seahawks homer; I have picked them in every single game this season, which has frequently been to my prognosticating detriment, but I like their chances in this game, even with no one around to play cornerback. Dallas may have a very good offense, but they're regressing at the worst part of the season, and they're on the road against one of the best home-field advantages in the game with a mistake-prone young quarterback. On defense, I think the Hawks should be able to throw against the Dallas secondary, which just isn't very good against the pass, and should be able to grind it out against a front seven that's having injury issues. Anyway, I think the Hawks are due to finally play up to their potential, at least for this game. Seahawks!!!

New York Jets (+9) @ New England (37.5)

I've noticed this line creeping downward since it opened, which I think is just asinine. I think the Jets are lucky to be in the playoffs, which is mostly the result of their easy schedule. I like Chad Pennington, but I just don't think the Jets are in the same class as the Pats come playoff time. The Pats are one of the most balanced teams in the league, and should be able to run the ball all day against the Jets. New England

New York Giants (+6.5) @ Philadelphia (46.5)

I have a feeling that this may be a bad week for New York football fans. The Giants have been one of the more schizophrenic teams in the league this season, looking both great and awful at times, but mostly awful lately. They're a terrible team to wager on in the playoffs: shaky quarterback, prone to really stupid penalties, Tom Coughlin seems like the type who would be the first person to bring up the possibility of cannibalism if trapped somewhere with a group of people, etc. They're not a bad team, especially the offense when it's clicking, but the seem like the exact opposite of the kind of team that comes together for a playoff run. Plus, they killed me in that first round game against Carolina last season. That was absolutely brutal. Not going to let that happen again. I'm a big fan of the Philly offense; Jeff Garcia works in that system, and I think they've benefited by relying on the run more with Donovan McNabb out. Philly

There's my picks for the first round of the playoffs. feel good about them, though I'm a little wary picking three favorites after an entire season of underdogs killing. I like the over for both NYJ-NE and NYG-Philly.

Anyway, UW-Arizona tonight, at Hec Ed. Watch it. Hopefully the Huskies will continue their home dominance. We'll see.