Power Outage!

I wasn't able to post my picks this week because my power's been out since last Thursday night. Yes, my power is still out, for nearly one week at this point. I went 10-6 on the week, bringing me to 116-106-2 on the season, and 20-12 the last two weeks. It's pretty damn hard to do much better than .500 on the season, so I'm happy that, barring a disastrous last two weeks, I should finish above .500.

NFL pro bowl picks have been released. Seahawks Walter Jones, Mack Strong, Julian Peterson, and Lofa Tatupu made the team. I think the Mack Strong selection is a little dubious, as I don't believe he's been nearly as good this season, and is partly responsible for the drop off in the Seahawk run game. I don't get too worked up over the so-called "snubs," because I believe the whole Pro Bowl/All-Star game process is incredibly flawed and mostly a popularity contest, but why is Tony Romo on the team? Has anyone watched him play the last two games? I realize that it's not exactly a stellar year for NFC quarterbacks, but Tony Romo is a Pro Bowler after playing five good games and two and a half bad ones.

With the NFL season winding down, I think it's about time to look at my preseason predictions, and see how I've done. I went through the preseason over/under lines and picked the teams I thought were good shots to go either over or under, and I also made my playoff predictions. I arrived at these ten teams as good bets to differ significantly from the preseason lines: Tennessee (5.5), San Diego (9), Chicago (9.5), Minnesota (8), New Orleans (6.5), Dallas (9.5), Philadelphia (8.5), Seattle (10.5), Arizona (8) and St. Louis (7). I liked the over for Tennessee, San Diego, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Seattle, and the under for the other five teams. As it currently stands, the Tennessee, San Diego, Chicago, and Arizona picks are already correct with two games to go. I'm already wrong on the New Orleans under pick and the Seattle over pick. If Minnesota loses one more game and Philly wins one more, those picks will be correct. My Dallas pick will be incorrect if they win one more. St. Louis is still up in the air. I think they'll most likely push. So assuming these scenarios play out, I'll probably go 6-3-1 on the preseason over/under picks. Not too bad. You'd make a lot of money hitting two-thirds of your picks. Looking at my picks, the one I missed by the furthest is New Orleans. I thought they'd be under 6.5 wins, and they currently have 9 wins. I was way off on the Saints, and I'm not afraid to admit it. The other picks I have or most likely will miss on: Seattle and Dallas. I made the Dallas pick at a time when Drew Bledsoe was their quarterback, and I think they'd definitely would've gone under 9.5 wins if he'd started all season long. I think I've overestimated Seattle all season. You can't really predict the injuries they've sustained, but I thought they'd be a much better defensive team then they have been. At this point in the season, I think it's safe to say that they're not the elite team I thought they'd be.

Here's my preseason playoff picks: for the AFC, Pittsburgh, Indy, New England, San Diego, Kansas City and Cincinnati. For the NFC, Chicago, Carolina, Seattle, Philadelphia, Atlanta and Washington. If the playoffs started today, Indy, New England, Baltimore, San Diego would be the division winners in the AFC, Dallas, Chicago, Seattle, and New Orleans in the NFC. The AFC wild cards winners will most likely be two of these teams: New York Jets, Cincinnati, Jacksonville and Denver. The NFC wild card winners will most likely be Philadelphia and one of the current 7-7 teams: the Giants and the Falcons. I'll most likely hit four or maybe five of the AFC teams, five if KC can sneak in to the playoffs, and three or maybe four of the NFC teams. The teams I've been furthest off on are Washington and Pittsburgh. Washington lost LeVar Arrington, and has had some injury issues with Clinton Portis and Shawn Springs, but to drop from a playoff team to 5-9 seems pretty drastic. I thought Pittsburgh would be much better than they've been, though I think they've been hit with some bad luck. Or karma. Just saying. Everyone alive missed the boat on Carolina. Preseason, some people were ready to hand them the Superbowl. I guess that's why you actually play out the season. My preseason Superbowl pick, Seattle over San Diego, may end up being just half right. San Diego looks like the real deal, though I think it would be a stretch for the Seahawks to return to the Superbowl. Remember though, you heard it here first, all the way back in August, San Diego Chargers Superbowl bound.

Anyway, I'm spent. Here's my pick for the Thursday game: GREEN BAY (-3.5) over Minnesota. Minnesota's starting a rookie quarterback (Tarvaris Jackson) on the road, and I don't think Jackson's very good anyway. Green Bay should win easy. And watch LSU-UW tonight; it will (hopefully) be a good game.