Husky Front Court Dominance/Random Notes/NFL Picks, Week 16

If you're a UW basketball fan, your mood has lifted substantially in the last week. With Wednesday's 88-72 win over LSU and tonight's 80-51 win over Weber State, the Huskies have done a lot to dispel many of the concerns created by last week's thrashing at Gonzaga. After that lackluster loss, the Huskies have responded with two very complete games, playing strong defense, while Jon Brockman and Spencer Hawes have led consecutive dominant performances by the front court. After combining for 42 points and 26 rebounds on Wednesday, Brockman and Hawes came back with 41 points and 19 rebounds tonight against an overmatched Weber State team. Both players seem to have made significant strides forward since the Gonzaga, especially Hawes, who's seemed to have overcome some early season inconsistency with his last two games.

Hawes has exhibited a breathtakingly versatile offensive repertoire, both with his back to the basket and squaring up to the hoop, and using both hands for a variety of hook and jump shots. At one point against LSU, he banked in a turnaround jumper high off the glass with Glen Davis in his face, a shot I think only one other player in basketball today could make: Tim Duncan. I don't think Hawes is the same kind of overall player as Tim Duncan, but I do think he has the kind of complete offensive game that you see in a post player only a couple times a decade. One of the things that separates Hawes from Duncan as a total package is rebounding, something Duncan is very good at, while Hawes is merely average. He's not a bad rebounder by any means, but he appears impassive, willing to let other players collect rebounds he could grab. Any deficiencies in Hawes' rebounding in the last two games, though, has been picked up by Jon Brockman, who's had 26 rebounds in the last two games.

At times last year I thought that Brockman was a little disappointing, in comparison to the reputation he carried as an incoming recruit, appearing overly tentative and unable to create his own shot. Any disappointment I had with him has dissipated this year, as he has made great strides in his game, while also taking on a leadership role with the team. In roughly the same minutes per game as last year, Brockman's increased his scoring by nearly four points per game, while grabbing three and a half more rebounds per game. His offensive game still isn't very advanced, and his free-throw shooting has seemingly regressed, but he makes up for it with aggression and toughness, and has shown a willingness to create his own shot this year, while exhibiting greater range on his jump shot. The strong points of his game are rebounding and defense, and his rebounding this year has been excellent. His Rebound Rate, a stat created by John Hollinger which measures the percentage of total rebounds collected by a certain player, is 22.46 through the first ten games, meaning Brockman grabs 22.46% of all the rebounds, offensive and defensive, while he's on court. For the sake of comparison, if he were in the NBA, Brockman's Rebound Rate would lead the league. Though he obviously would not be able to rebound as well in the NBA as he can in college, I believe Brockman's rebounding is an NBA-level skill, and I don't see why he couldn't be as effective as someone like Reggie Evans or Eduardo Najera in the NBA, with more offensive upside.

The breakout performances of Hawes and Brockman in the last two games has really increased my confidence in the Huskies chances this season. There aren't many post presences in college basketball like the combination of Hawes and Brockman, and their presence also makes the Huskies less reliant on outside scoring, a skill which is much more subject to variability in performance. A team is much more likely to have an off night if they rely on 3-point shooting than if they can consistently score in the paint. I'm still wary about the Huskies lack of experience on the road heading into the conference season, but Hawes and Brockman should help out the transitional process.

Random Notes:

If you didn't get a chance to see Gilbert Arenas put up 54 points tonight against the Suns, you really missed out. I can't think of a more interesting player, on and off the court, as Arenas is right now.

Last night's Minnesota-Green Bay game was absolutely brutal to watch, especially if you had Green Bay and laid three and a half points. Every gambling rule in the world said take Green Bay: Rookie quarterback starting on the road in his first start, Brett Favre's maybe, kinda, last start at home, dome team in a cold weather city in winter, etc. So what happens? Minnesota, despite an absolutely awful performance from Tavaris Jackson (10-20 for 50 yards), get bailed out by a blocked field goal and another field goal rejected by the upright, and a Brett Favre pick-six. At least Minnesota lost, guaranteeing they hit their "under" for the season, as I had predicted.

Here's the NFL picks: Kansas City (+4) over OAKLAND, Tennessee (+4) over BUFFALO, NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over New Orleans, ATLANTA (-7) over Carolina, Washington (+3) over ST. LOUIS, Indianapolis (-9) over HOUSTON, Baltimore (+3) over PITTSBURGH, CLEVELAND (-3) over Tampa Bay, DETROIT (+6) over Chicago, JACKSONVILLE (-2.5) over New England, SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over Arizona, Cincinnati (+3) over DENVER, SEATTLE (+3.5) over San Diego, Philadelphia (+7) over DALLAS, and New York Jets (+1.5) over MIAMI.

Season Greetings; by the way, this is also my first post written from my home computer since the power came back on this morning. It's a Christmas miracle!