Husky Basketball Mid-Season Report

Yesterday's victory over the OSU Beavers marked the halfway point in the Huskies' Pac-10 season. The conference season has been a disappointment to say the least, evident in the Huskies' 3-6 conference record, with the Huskies (hopefully) hitting rock bottom in a blow-out loss to Washington State just over one week ago. Acquiring a bid for the NCAA tournament will most likely require winning six or seven of their remaining conference games, and a strong showing in the conference tournament. The Huskies do have the benefit of having five of the remaining nine conference games at home, where the Huskies have been clearly superior throughout the season, with only one home loss. My intent in this post is to highlight the Huskies' strenghs and weaknesses, both on an individual and team level, through the use of statistics, as a means to evaluate the season performance and to illustrate what must be improved if the Huskies are to succeed in the second half of the Pac-10 season. Being the huge nerd that I am, I've tracked the Huskies statistics, both cumulative and in conference, throughout the season, and in addition to the traditional counting statistics, I've kept some more advanced, and hopefully revealing, metrics. I've kept most of the stats that John Hollinger provides to ESPN.com, including True Shooting Percentage; Assist, Rebound, and Turnover Rate; and also per 40 minute points, rebounds, assists, fouls, steals, and blocks. I wish I was better with Blogger and/or Excel, so that I could figure out how to attach my spreadsheet to this post, but as of now I haven't figured that out yet. For now, you'll have to trust me on the numbers. I swear I'm not lying.

Looking at the team numbers, the Huskies as a team have one real strength: rebounding. For the season, the Huskies have grabbed 57% of all rebounds, a very significant advantage. This number drops to 53.9% for conference games, a total that is still very good. In particular, the Huskies are great offensive rebounders, an attribute that greatly enhances their offensive game. What's interesting is that this advantage is mostly created by one player: Jon Brockman. For the season Brockman has a Rebound Rate of 19.7, meaning that he grabs 19.7% of all rebounds while he's on the court. By comparison, the next closest Husky is Artem Wallace, with a Rebound Rate of 12.9. Brockman's rebounding really carries the team, as Spencer Hawes has been a fairly inferior rebounder for a college seven-footer, though Brockman does receive some help from Justin Dentmon and Adrian Oliver, both of whom are very good rebounders for guards. Also of note is the complete lack of rebounding that the Huskies get from Ryan Appleby, who's posted a season Rebound Rate of 3.7. Dentmon and Oliver have accumulated rebounds at a rate of roughly 2.5 times better than Appleby.

The Huskies have also had one glaring weakness this season: defense. This has been a real source of disappointment, due to the early season emphasis from the coaches and players on the importance of defense. What's more, there doesn't seem to be a real obvious cause for this deficiency. The Huskies aren't clearly athletically inferior to their opponents, and they have plenty of size. If I had to venture a guess, I would blame a lack of communication and continuity, which is an issue with such a young team, though it is an issue that more commonly manifests itself on the offensive side of the ball, which has been one of the Huskies' strengths, though their offensive performance has been far from perfect. The defensive issues have been readily apparent in conference play in particular. In conference games the Huskies have yielded an opponent's True Shooting Percentage of 60.3%, which is an astronomical figure. True Shooting Percentage adjusts shooting percentage to account for three-pointers and free throws, and from personal observation, it does seem as if the Huskies have been victimized by the three point shot, with the Arizona game really sticking out in that regard. It seems like the Huskies yield an inordinate amount of wide-open three point attempts, with the main culprit being slow defensive rotation, which also is apparent in the amount of easy lay-ups and dunks they give up. This is one place where it seems like the Huskies have missed Joel Smith and the departed Harvey Perry. The Huskies' perimeter defense would really benefit from one or two more athletic bodies to add to the rotation. I also think that the Huskies increased reliance on the scoring of Ryan Appleby in conference play is a detriment to the defense, as Appleby doesn't strike me as a particularly adept defensive presence. I don't think it's in the best interest of the team to have Appleby on the court for 30+ minutes a night, but with the offensive contributions of Quincy Pondexter and others limited in conference play, Romar's hand is forced. I don't mean to denigrate Appleby's talents, as his offensive play in conference play (TSP of 66.3%, high assist and low turnover rates) has been a great aid to the team, but he does have holes in his game (defense and rebounding) that leave him best suited to a complementary rather than leading role. Whatever the cause may be, the Huskies have defensive issues that must be fixed if they wish to improve in the second half of conference play.

With the team strengths and weaknesses addressed, I'll move onto the individual players, and see what the stats have to say about their performance thus far.

Spencer Hawes: The Huskies best scorer has seen his performance drop off slightly in conference play, though through fault of his own. A bout with the flu and an ankle injury have limited him, and he still seems to be trying to get back to full strength. As much as I like his scoring repetoire and passing ability, he does have some holes in his game, much of which stem from a slight lack of aggressiveness and average athleticism. His rebound rate of 12.2 for the season and 11.1 in conference are very low for a seven-footer, and his shot-blocking abilities have dropped off in conference with the increased level of competition. I have one qualm with his offense: he doesn't go hard to the basket enough. In eight conference games he's only attempted 22 free-throws, compared to 101 field goal attempts. As good a foul shooter as Hawes is, if he could get that ratio closer to one free-throw attempt for every two field goals, it would really increase his scoring and overall offensive efficiency.

Jon Brockman: One of the few Huskies to raise the level of his game in conference. He's increased his offensive efficiency by hitting his free-throws more frequently, and he's also cut down on turnovers and fouls while taking a more prominent role in the offense. On a completely unanalytical level, he's an absolute joy to watch play, and I'm happy that he's the type of player who will stick around for four years.

Quincy Pondexter: His drop off in conference play has been pretty disappointing, but he also set the bar fairly high early season. His drop in scoring looks like one of the reasons for the struggles in conference, and he's been very turnover- and foul-prone in conference, which has led to less playing time. The Huskies need him to play better, because he's one of the best players on the team at creating his own shot and getting to the free-throw line, where's he's a bery good foul shooter. I wish he'd take more three-point attempts because he's been very accurate on three's all year.

Justin Dentmon: His level of play has risen from that of a season ago, but he's been erratic. Too often he's out of control, taking bad shots and making turnovers, which leads to a low TSP and a high turnover rate. He does seem to have figured out that he's not a very good three-point shooter, and has scaled back his attempts in conference to just one a game. Like Pondexter, when he's on, the team really benefits because of his ability to make his own shot and create easy looks for everyone else.

Ryan Appleby: Along with Brockman, Appleby has been one of the players to raise his game in conference. Appleby is a player who really benefits from the evaluative ability of TSP. Because he takes so many three-pointers, his field-goal percentage will tend to be lower than one would think with his shooting ability; with TSP though, his three-pointers are accounted for, and due to the fact that he's hitting a ridiculous 50% of his threes in conference, his TSP sits at 66.3% in conference. He's also a very good passer and rarely turns the ball over.

Phil Nelson: This guy can really frustrate me. It seems like he forgets that he's 6-8. Over half the shots he takes are threes, but he's only hit 29.4% on the season. Also, in 349 minutes this season, he's only attempted 3 free throws, which is really a pretty amazing ability to avoid getting fouled, and has not attempted a single free-throw in Pac-10 play in 183 minutes. His mid-range game looks to be pretty strong, but he doesn't use it enough. He has trouble asserting himself on offense, and seems content to let the game come to him.

Adrian Oliver: Intriguing. Another player who's improved with the start of the Pac-10 season. He's not a very good scorer or shooter, but he's a very good penetrator and passer, with the best Assist Rate on the team for the season and during conference play, where he leads by a wide margin (Assist Rate measures how many of the possessions that a player uses that end up as assists). In addition, he has the best assist-to-turnover ratio on the team in conference. He's a good rebounder despite his size, and one of the better defenders on the team, but he's very foul-prone, leading the team in fouls per 40 minutes on the season. I think he could be a beast in a couple seasons if his shooting improves, and he has improved his shooting in conference play, though he's also not taking shots as frequently.

Artem Wallace: Wallace has been playing more minutes as of late, though I'm not quite sure why. He can do one thing, rebound, especially on the offensive end, but lacks any other discernible skills. No offensive game to speak of, and every time he attempts a free throw an angel dies. If Romar ever sent in a player just to make really hard fouls in an attempt to injure opponents, ala John Chaney, Wallace would be the odds-on favorite.

Hans Gasser: A sentimental favorite of mine, due to his earnest expression while setting screens, and the fact that he once flipped off my ex-girlfriend at Earl's on the Ave. A decent rotation guy, he basically does what Mike Jensen did last year, stretching the defense with his ability to step out and hit the three, not really rebounding, and setting lots of screens. He doesn't turn over the ball, and he's a decent passer.

Brandon Burmeister: He's kind of been forgotten in conference play. All he does is shoot threes, though he does have good size for a guard and looks proficient rebounding and playing defense, but it seems like he's been the odd man out recently.

So that's the player-by-player breakdown. If I had to offer a solution for improving play in the second half of conference play, it'd be better defensive play, which should hopefully come with experience, and possibly the return of Joel Smith. Also, a number of players will have to pick up their level of play, most notably Quincy Pondexter and Phil Nelson, and Justin Dentmon has to be more consistent, which is going to be the result of an active choice by him to play more within his means. The Huskies will have to win the rest of their home games, including UCLA and Washington State, and then hope to get a couple road victories, with their easiest games coming at Arizona State and Oregon State, and may also have to win the game at Pittsburgh in three weeks. It's not impossible, but it won't happen unless improvements are made on both a team and individual basis.

Any other input is welcome. Drop your knowledge in the comments.

Husky Basketball Stats

(I'm pretty sure I figured out how to display the stats. Hopefully this link works. If not, I will have proved once again to be hopelessly inept when it comes to computers.)