NFL picks+Bloomquist rant

I can't believe I forgot to mention this yesterday, but I didn't mention that the Mariners gave Willie Fuckin' Bloomquist a contract extension. Why? I just don't get the fascination with his decidedly mediocre brand of local white guy scrapiness. There's hundreds of minor leaguers who can play several positions poorly will not hitting and stealing some bases, and do it for the league minimum. I know they're not paying him too much, but I just don't see the 700,000 dollar premium we pay him for being from Port Orchard.

The Mariners actually made a semi-interesting signing today, Justin Lehr, picking him up on a minor-league contract. He pitched pretty well for Nashville in the PCL last year. He's a sinkerball pitcher who'll get some strikeouts, has good control, and keeps the ball on the ground. He has some difficulty keeping the ball in the park, but Safeco's the perfect place for pitchers like that. He should be in the running with Baek and Woods for the four and five starter spots. Due to the ridiculous free agent market, I wouldn't mind seeing the M's go into next year with a couple pitchers like this, rather than crippling themselves with huge contracts for players who aren't that good. I do think it's important though that they improve their outfield defense by bringing in someone other than Raul Ibanez to play leftfield. I like Raul's offense, but at this point in his career he's much better suited for DH or first. Safeco has possibly the largest leftfield in baseball, which makes it very important to have a good fielder out there to take away extra-base hits. I'm still holding out hope for the M's to trade Ritchie Sexson, most likely to Baltimore, mostly to move salary, but to also possibly snag a pitcher or two.

Okay, I wrote the last two paragraphs a couple days ago, and there's been a lot of activity from the Mariners since then. Today they've signed Jose Guillen, and they're also close to signing John Thomson; the M's are currently reviewing his medical files. Both of these contracts are one-year deals with options for the second year, which I really like. I hate being attached to long term contracts with a lot of money tied up in them, because it seriously hinders your roster flexibility. The M's may get serious bargains if either of these players has the kind of season they're capable of, and if either guy sucks, you can cut him and not have to worry about wasting too much money. I actually mentioned Thomson in my post on what the Mariners should do this offseason, lumping him in with guys like Bruce Chen, etc. who are coming off bad years or injuries and who can be had for cheap and possibly be serious contributors. Thomson's ideal contribution is probably of the highest level of the guys I mentioned. He's a groundball pitcher who should benefit from the Mariners excellent infield defense, he can still get strike outs, and has pretty good control. His major issue is injury, but he can be reasonably expected to give you 100-150 innings of pretty good pitching, and possibly more, while increasing the overall organizational depth.

Jose Guillen is in a very similar situation to Thomson. He's coming off Tommy John surgery, and played terribly last year. He's definitely a flawed player, but he's got good power, plays good defense and has a tremendous arm, one of the best in the league. I could see him hit .270/.330/.450, which would be a pretty good season at Safeco, especially for a guy with defensive value. An outfield of Guillen, Ichiro, and Chris Snelling would cover a lot of ground while being nearly impossible to run on. The only issue I have with this deal at the moment is that it creates a serious log jam of corner outfield/first base/designated hitter types. I'm hoping this means that the M's move either Ben Broussard or Ritchie Sexson. Otherwise, I get the feeling that Mike Hargrove's irrational love of veterans will result in Chris Snelling being the odd-man out, which would suck because he's an absolute hitting machine, and one of the Mariners' only serious OBP threats. I would like the end result to be Guillen in left, Ichiro in center, Snelling in right, Ibanez at DH, and either Broussard or Sexson at first, with one of them traded, preferably Sexson due to his enormous contract. So far though, I really like what the Mariners have done so far this offseason, with there still being a strong chance that they sign Jason Schmidt. A rotation of Schmidt, Felix, Washburn, Thomson, and Lehr/Baek/Woods would be a pretty good one.

With the prospects of the 2007 Mariners looking brighter every day, let's get on to the NFL picks, abridged version: Minnesota (+9.5) over CHICAGO, PITTSBURGH (-7.5) over Tampa Bay, Arizona (+6.5) over ST. LOUIS, Indianapolis (-7.5) over TENNESSEE, MIAMI (Pk) over Jacksonville, NEW ORLEANS (-7) over San Francisco, WASHINGTON (-1.5) over Atlanta, CLEVELAND (+5) over Kansas City, Detroit (+13.5) over NEW ENGLAND, San Diego (-6) over BUFFALO, GREEN BAY (+1) over New York Jets, NEW YORK GIANTS (+3.5) over Dallas, OAKLAND (-3) over Houston, Seattle (+4) over DENVER, and Carolina (-3) over PHILADELPHIA. I like the Indianapolis-Tennessee over (47), Kansas City-Cleveland over (35.5), St. Louis-Arizona under (46.5), and NYJ-Green Bay over (42.5).

Weird Thursday NFL games messing up my internal gambling schedule

I don't know what to think about these new Thursday NFL games. It throws off my internal clock, and I can't even watch the games as a non-NFL network subscriber. Hmm. I don't know. Anyway, tomorrow's CINCINNATI (-3)-Baltimore, two teams that have been erratic, but generally good, especially Baltimore, who've recovered from an early funk to play really great the last few weeks. I went 10-6 last week, 9-6-1 the week before, and I've been riding underdogs pretty hard. I'm going to go with Baltimore. Cincinnati's defense has been pretty bad at times, and Baltimore's been running the ball well. I think Baltimore wins it outright. Rest of the picks later this week. 89-85-2 on the season.

Huskies won again tonight, looking pretty good in the process, but against Idaho at home, not exactly a tough matchup. The Dawgs have one more home tune-up against Southern Utah before heading to Spokane to play Gonzaga. Should be a good game. Adrian Oliver really picked up his game beginning with the Eastern Washington game, and he's been added to the starting line-up in place of Ryan Appleby. I like the move because Oliver's a much better defensive player, while I like bringing a shooter as good as Appleby off the bench. It looks like Joel Smith will be out for up to two more months after re-injuring his foot. Too bad for him, though it does ease the UW rotational crunch. It looks like Harvey Perry is going to be the odd man out, right now.

This week continued the bad contract cavalcade in Major League Baseball. Here's my candidate for the worst of the week: Danys Baez to Baltimore for $19 million over 3 years. There's not a middle reliever alive worth that much, and Baez isn't even particularly good anymore. I think the Kei Igawa posting fee by the Yankees was pretty ridiculous. It's twice the posting fee the Mariners paid for Ichiro, for an unproven pitcher. I guess they can do what they want. There was actually two good signings this week: David Dellucci to the Indians for 3 years/12 Mil and Gregg Zaun re-signing with the Blue Jays for 2 years/7.25 Mil. These are contracts that might actually be worth the money. Imagine that. I'm starting to think the Mariners would be better off not signing anyone big, so as not to lose draft picks as compensation, let Meche walk so they can pick up the compensation pick, and start investing heavily in the draft and international signings. One of the effects of the new CBA is slotted bonus figures for draft picks, which should bring down signing bonuses overall. If the free-agent market will continue to be insane, often your best bet is to completely opt out of the system, rather than following the insane GM's of the world.

NFL Picks/Continued MLB INSANITY!!!

It was a good Thanksgiving, both in terms of the holiday and my picks, as I went 3-0 and hit the under for the KC-Denver game. In the world of MLB, the insane contract bonanza rolled on, with Carlos Lee receiving $100 million over six years from the Houston Astros. Remember, the Astros could of spent that same amount roughly two years ago and would've been able to keep Carlos Beltran around, someone who would actually be worth that money. Last year, Carlos Lee and Raul Ibanez were basically equally valuable players, by about every advanced metric available; Lee was worth about ten more runs by VORP, Ibanez was worth about 8 more runs by Runs Created, Lee had a .293 EQA, Ibanez .288. Neither player is good on defense and both are borderline defensive liabilities. I guess you could give a very slight advantage to Lee. Now, would you want to pay Raul Ibanez $17 million dollars for the next six years? No way in hell. I just don't see how MLB GM's don't see how crippling it is to give massive, long-term contracts to players who aren't that good. Your roster flexibility is sacrificed, you block young players, who are the most valuable players in baseball due to the inequitable financial situation for players before they reach free agency. And does Carlos Lee seem like the type of player who will age particularly well? There's been a lot of success in the market for aging fat guys. Anyone remember Mo Vaughn? he aged like a fine wine. This offseason is going to be infamous within a year or two.

With this off my chest, at least until the next terrible contract comes along, on to the NFL picks. Once again, I'm going with the abridged versions. Anyone who wants clarification on any picks can ask in the comments. Here we go, home teams in CAPS: Jacksonville (-3) over BUFFALO, Houston (+5.5) over NY JETS, BALTIMORE (-3) over Pittsburgh, Cincinnati (-3) over CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA (-6) over Arizona, San Francisco (+5.5) over ST. LOUIS, New Orleans (+3) over ATLANTA, WASHINGTON (+4) over Carolina, Chicago (+3) over NEW ENGLAND, INDIANAPOLIS (-9) over Philadelphia, New York Giants (-3) over TENNESEE, SAN DIEGO (-13) over Oakland, and SEATTLE (-9.5) over Green Bay. I really like Chicago over NE, and Jacksonville over Buffalo. As far as the over/unders, I like the over (36) on Carolina-Washington, the over (42.5) on Cincinnati-Cleveland, and the under (43) for San Diego-Oakland. I've been killing on the over/under lately, hopefully I can keep it up. Happy football weekend, and watch the Husky basketball game tonight if you get a chance. Rodney Stuckey for Eastern Washington is a pretty remarkable talent, and the Dawgs are awesome.

Husky Basketball Preview

I know that previews are typically done before the season, but I feel like doing my Husky preview four games into the season. Anyway, early non-conference play isn't that important. After watching the Huskies basketball team’s first four games, I’m going to say something that could be viewed as premature or rash: this is the most talented team in UW history. I’m not saying they’re the best UW team ever (yet), but this team is absolutely stacked. What Lorenzo Romar has done in his tenure is nothing short of amazing. In the four years I’ve been at UW, the team has been transformed from a laughingstock to a powerhouse, a truly elite program that is here to stay. Their rotation this year goes twelve men deep. They’ve gone from a team that didn’t have anyone taller than 6’8” to one with six rotation players 6’7” or taller, without having to sacrifice athleticism, and still being able to play their signature up-tempo style. Everyone on the team can shoot; Ryan Appleby, Justin Dentmon, Phil Nelson, Harvey Perry, Quincy Pondexter, Adrian Oliver, Joel Smith and Brandon Burmeister have legitimate three-point range. Even Spencer Hawes and Jon Brockman have 17-foot range, and Hans Gasser can step back and hit a three, while also providing unlimited unintentional comedy with his overly-earnest setting of screens (you kind of have to see him to understand what I’m saying). The only non-shooter, Artem Wallace, is an undersized five who’s an absolute beast on the boards. Combined with Hawes, Brockman, Gasser, and Pondexter, this is the best rebounding group Romar has had, and even Dentmon is a great rebounder for an undersized guard. On defense, their length and quickness allows them to trap and overplay on passes, and they have the first dominant shot blocking force with Hawes since Todd MacCulloch.

As far as the incoming freshmen group, Pondexter and Hawes have been really impressive thus far. Nelson and Oliver seem to be works in progress. I’ve heard a lot of comparisons of Pondexter to Bobby Jones, but I don’t know how apt that comparison is. They have similar body types and athleticism, but Pondexter is a much more accomplished offensive player than Jones ever was in college. Jones didn’t have three-point range until his junior year, and really didn’t have any game off the dribble until his senior year. Pondexter already has both of these aspects in his offensive repertoire, plus a lot more confidence on the offensive end than Jones had.

Hawes already has a good complement of post moves, and his passing ability as a center is astounding, the best I’ve seen from a college center since Andrew Bogut. Early on it actually seems that he’s looking to pass too much, which has resulted in a lot of forced passes and turnovers. This is something that will be easily alleviated with experience. I’ve been really surprised by just how nimble he is, and how confident he is handling the ball. On the defensive end, he’s a dominant shot-blocker who also manages to stay in position well and doesn’t get into foul trouble. These are very rare traits to have.

Nelson and Oliver have shown talent, but both have been erratic so far. Nelson is a very good outside shooter and surprisingly athletic, but has looked tentative on offense, and kind of lost on defense. Oliver is a good penetrator and very active on defense, but prone to trying to do too much and forcing plays on offense, rather than letting the game come to him. He’s also very good at grabbing rebounds in traffic for a guard. My initial impression is that Oliver will get more minutes in the rotation than Nelson, backing up Dentmon for 10-15 minutes a game. I think as the season gets going and the rotation gets set at nine or ten players, Nelson, Burmeister and Wallace will get squeezed for minutes.

Because of their youth, this team will no doubt struggle at points this year, especially early in the season, and we've already seen this with the struggles early in the game against Northern Iowa and Sacramento State. Though it seems like a bad omen to be struggling against Northern Iowa and Sacramento State, one must remember that Northern Iowa is a returning NCAA tournament team that will most likely be back again this year, while Sacramento State is a team with a lot of talent and athleticism, albeit somewhat raw. Both teams also have a lot of experience, and are teams very reliant on a “system,” especially Northern Iowa, and those kinds of teams give young teams problems. What’s important is that the team gets time to gel before they hit conference play, and I think their schedule will allow for that, even with tough games against Gonzaga and LSU on the non-conference schedule. By the end of conference play, I think this team will be pretty damn good, and peaking at the right time of the year. This should be a sweet sixteen team again, and a team with enough talent to keep up that level of play into the future.

Thanksgiving football picks/More awful MLB signings

It's technically Thanksgiving right now, so "happy Thanksgiving" to anyone who may read this. This is my favorite holiday, by far, and I'm looking forward to doing some overeating. Not to brag, but I'll put my mother's Thanksgiving meal up against all-comers. It would definitely be my last meal if I was on death row.

Last week's picks went pretty well: 9-6-1, taking me back to .500 for the season. I'm just going to put up my picks for the Thanksgiving games right now; Friday or Saturday I'll have the rest of the picks up. An extra game's been added this year to the Thanksgiving slate. In addition to the games Detroit and Dallas always play, Kansas City-Denver is also playing. Apparently KC's owner got screwed over with regards to the Thanksgiving game back in the 70's, and this is a correction of such an egregious injustice.

Here's the picks: Miami (-2.5) over DETROIT, DALLAS (-11) over Tampa Bay, and KANSAS CITY (Pk) over Denver. I like the under (38) for KC-Denver. Detroit is just awful, while Miami looks a little better each week; I'm going reverse psychology on Dallas because they kill me everytime I pick against them, and I think KC can slug it out with Denver and win. They've got one of the best home-field advantages in the league.

By the way, I was debating which contract was worse, Soriano, 136 for 8, or Juan Pierre 45 for 5, when along comes Gary Matthews, Jr. to trump them both. 50 million dollars over 5 years for a player who's had one good season, and did it while playing in the best offensive environment in the American League. The only difference between Gary Matthews, Jr. last year and previous years when he was merely a good fourth outfielder was a completely unsustainable jump in batting average. In 2005 Matthews hit .255. Last year he hit .313. Looking beyond the deceptive stat of batting average, it becomes clear that Matthews was basically the same player in 2005 and 2006. In 2005, in 526 PA's, he hit line drives 16.8% of the time, struck out 17.1% of the time, walked 8.9% of the time, and homered 3.2% of the time. In 2006, in 690 PA's, 18.8% line drives, 14.3% K's, 8.4% BB's, and 2.8% HR's. He hit 2% more line drives, didn't strike out quite as much, walked slightly less, and had nearly identical power numbers (.181 ISO in 2005, .182 ISO in 2006). 2% more LD's and 2.8% fewer K's is not enough to correspond to a 58 point jump in batting average. Here's the reason for the change from Gary Matthews, fourth outfielder, to Gary Matthews, borderline all-star: in 2006, 34.9% of the balls he put in play became hits, while in 2005, only 28.3% did. This is a massive jump that basically explains the jump in batting average, and why he suddenly became "good" in 2006. And still, is the season he put up last year, even if he could do that year in and year out, which he can't, worth 10 million dollars a year for the seasons in which he'll be 32, 33, 34, 35, and 36? One must also account for the drop in production that will result in moving from a great hitters environment to a decidely mediocre one. Also, even if he's a defensive asset right now, will he be one when he's 36? This is definitely the worst contract of this offseason so far. I'm just glad that it's being given by a team in the Mariners division because this contract should end up as a real albatross.

NFL!/Apple Cup!

I haven't had my NFL picks up in awhile, which I mentioned yesterday. I've been tracking them personally though, and things haven't been pretty: 3-10 in week 6, 7-6 in week 7, 7-7 in week 8, 4-10 in week 9, 9-7 last week. I'm 70-73-1 overall. Underdogs have been absolutely killing, as Bill Simmons as frequently noted. Week 6 and week 7, my two ten-loss weeks, I picked seven and ten favorites, respectively, 17 out of 27 games, and got killed. I'm going to do the abridged version of the picks this week: Seattle (-4.5) over San Fran, KC (-9.5) over Oakland, Indy (-1) over Dallas, Cincy (+3.5) over Nawlins, Pittsburgh (-3.5) over Cleveland, Tennessee (+13) over Philly, Baltimore (-4) over Atlanta, St. Louis (+7) over Carolina, Buffalo (+2.5) over Houston, New England (-5.5) over Green Bay, Washington (+3) over Tampa, Chicago (-7) over NYJ, Miami (-3.5) over Minnesota, Detroit (+2) over Arizona, San Diego (+2.5) over Denver, and NYG (+3.5) over Jacksonville. I really like San Diego chances against Denver; I've said all season that they're the best team in the AFC, and I think they'll show that Sunday. I like the over in Washington-Tampa (34), under in NO-Cincy (51) (it's just too high), over in Philly-Tennessee (43), and the over for Miami-Minnesota (34). 34 points in just too low to safely take, unless Oakland and Denver are playing.

I know it's Apple Cup weekend, and as a UW student I'm compelled to at least mention the game, but I really don't care much this year. UW's season has been depressing because there was so much hope at one point, and everything's gone to hell since then. The Isaiah Stanback injury, two overtime losses, Carl Bonnell's awfulness. I'm glad that the upswing in the basketball program coincided with the football team falling off the map, or this would of been a depressing four years of UW sports. Oh well. I'll be cheering for the Huskies tomorrow, with the consolation if they lose being the basketball team. When we stomp the Cougs twice this winter I'll feel better about this.

This week I hope to have a post about the UW basketball team, you should definitely watch every chance you get, and maybe something on the Sonics/NBA. Go Dawgs!

How the Mariners Can Win the West

Hey, remember me? It's been a while, hasn't it? Sorry about the hiatus, completely unintentional. I got lazy with the weather and school's killing me, plus I'm working on a top secret project, but that shouldn't be an excuse. I'll try and compensate by overloading you with posts. I've been tracking my NFL picks even though I haven't been posting, and should have something up on those in the next day or two.

Anyway, I want to talk Mariners. I must admit this has already been a very disappointing offseason for me. I hated, absolutely hated, seeing the front office give Mike Hargrove a vote of confidence for this season. I truly believe he's the worst in-game manager in baseball; he can't construct a lineup, he's overly reliant on "proven veterans" even when they suck (i.e. Carl Everett, Willie Bloomquist, and Julio Mateo), mangles pitching changes, sacrifice bunts way too much, etc. Second, I wanted the M's to go after Daisuke Matsuzaka, though I'm glad he didn't end up paying $51.1 Million just to negotiate with him. Third, this free agent market is depressing as hell. There's just not much out there, and with the new CBA, every team in baseball has loads of money and feels the need to flaunt it. The contracts being handed out and that will soon be handed out are ridiculous. You're going to see multi-year contracts worth about $10 mil per for turd sandwiches like Ted Lilly and Gil Meche. If you're a woman, hope that Alfonso Soriano impregnates you in the near future, because he'll be $120 mil richer in the next couple weeks. I don't necessarily have anything against contracts of this size, but I hate seeing them go to players who just aren't that good. Here are the players I would consider giving contracts to of that size if I was handed a team, the players I would consider truly elite, and also young enough to justify a massive contract: Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Beltran, and Johan Santana. That's it. I would probably consider David Wright and Grady Sizemore, too, because of their combination of youth, hitting, and their position, and maybe Jose Reyes if he keeps improving like he did last year. With the exception of Pujols, the best hitter in baseball, and also one of the best fielding first basemen, I think that contracts of the size Soriano will probably get should be reserved for potential hall-of-fame players, true five-tool players, at the premier defensive positions: SS, CF, C, 2B, and 3B. It's just not that hard to find a corner outfielder or first baseman or DH who can hit and play the field at a mediocre level. Here's a list of National League LF's who were at least 80% as productive as Soriano or Carlos Lee, as measured by Runs Created per Game, and with over 200 PA on the season: Luke Scott, Jason Bay, Dave Roberts, Matt Holiday, Chris Duncan, Andre Ethier, Pat Burrell, John Rodriguez, David Dellucci, Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham and Matt Murton. Barry Bonds was far more productive than either Soriano or Lee. Six of those players made the league minimum, and only Dunn and Burrell had comparable salaries to Soriano and Lee.

What frightens me about these potential salary figures is that the Mariners just aren't very well run. They're awful identifying low risk/potential high-reward bargains, such as last year when they pursued the washed-up Carl Everett for 5 mil a year instead of opting for an incentive laden, low-base contract for Frank Thomas. They also have a weird habit of throwing money at free agents when they don't need to, such as last year's Jarrod Washburn contract, which was 4 years at 37.5 mil when no other team was actively pursuing him. They've also feel the need to make splashy signings versus pursuing a good value. With all the money floating around this year and the team's payroll supposed to go up to about $95 mil, I'm afraid of landing more albatross contracts like Ritchie Sexson, Adrian Beltre, and Washburn.

That said, here's what the Mariners are going into next season with:

C: Kenji Johjima
1B: Ritchie Sexson
2B: Jose Lopez
SS: Yuniesky Betancourt
3B: Adrian Beltre
CF: Ichiro!
RF: Chris Snelling
LF: Raul Ibanez
DH: Ben Broussard

Bench: Scrappy Bloomquist, Rene Rivera, Jeremy Reed, etc.

Starting Pitching:
King Felix
Jarrod Washburn
Cha Seung Baek?
Jake Woods?
Joel Pineiro?

Bullpen:
JJ Putz
Rafael Soriano
George Sherrill
Mark Lowe
Julio Mateo
Sean Green?
Emiliano Fruto?
Jon Huber?

So, looking at this team, it's obvious that the main concern is going to be starting pitching. The starting lineup is about set, and the bullpen is set. I wouldn't do a thing to the bullpen. Putz, Soriano, Sherrill and Lowe were as good a core relief group as any in baseball last year, and none of them even made a million dollars. It's not their fault that Hargrove wants to use Camel-Face Mateo in important situations instead of as the mop-up guy. With King Felix and Jarrod Washburn as the only sure things, you're going to have to sign at least one free agent and possibly two, but you're also going to need to fill at least one of those slots with the in-house options or non-roster invitees because fiscally the M's can't afford three marquee free agents. The biggest names of the free agent starters are Jason Schmidt, Barry Zito, Andy Pettite, Adam Eaton, Ted Lilly, Gil Meche, Jeff Suppan, Greg Maddux, Vincente Padilla, Randy Wolf, and Jeff Weaver. Ugh. I would say that Pettite is the best name on that list, but he's either going to play for Houston or retire, so he's out. I would say Schmidt is #2. Weaver and Suppan will be overpaid because of the playoffs. Eaton, Lilly, Wolf, and Padilla all have injury/durability issues and none of them are that good. I hate Gil Meche. Maddux probably wouldn't come to Seattle. Zito just isn't that good of a pitcher anymore, despite good ERA and win totals. Out of these "marquee" starters, I would say that the M's should go hard after Jason Schmidt, and if they don't get him, look elsewhere. There's just not much talent there.

I would try to sign one of the second tier free agent starters after this, preferably someone coming off injury or a poor season who'd be willing to play for a reasonable one-year contract. I would look at guys like Bruce Chen, Shawn Estes, John Thomson. I think Chen would be the best bet, a lefty who had awful numbers last year, but the year before was 13-10 with a 3.83 ERA in almost 200 innings, with fairly good K/9 and BB/9 numbers. His issue in the past has been home runs, and he would certainly benefit next year pitching at Safeco.

Ideally I would go into next year with this rotation:

Jason Schmidt
King Felix
Jarrod Washburn
Bruce Chen
Cha Seung Baek/Jake Woods

Not bad. I think it would definitely be an improvement over last year's rotation, if only because Pineiro's no longer in it. With the pitching set, here's what else I would do. I think if the M's make a big signing on offense, they're going to have to move some salary. I would recommend trading Ritchie Sexson, who's due $28 million over the next two years. I'm not sure what you'd get for him, but it'd be worth it to get rid of his salary and maybe get a couple young arms in return. I would play Ben Broussard at first base, and sign a right-handed hitting, lefty-mashing 1B to platoon with him, either bringing back Eduardo Perez or signing Craig Wilson. I would then move Raul Ibanez to DH. I think the M's have room for improvement on defense, especially in the outfield, and the most obvious location is in LF, a very important position in Safeco due to the size of the left-center field gap, and with the number of fly-ball pitchers on the staff. You don't need to have great pitching, if you have great defense, and it's cheaper to acquire defense right now because the market undervalues it due to the difficulty in evaluating defense objectively. The M's are perpetually looking for another lefty power bat. By far the best option on the market for a lefty power bat and a good fielder is J.D. Drew. With the money saved by trading Sexson, the M's could reasonably go after Drew. As far as cheaper options with the same logic, Frank Catalanotto and David Dellucci are good picks, with Catalanotto the better defensive player and Dellucci the better hitter, and both lefties. If they prefer to go the speed/defense route, Dave Roberts is available, while the cheaper version of this logic would be to go after Kenny Lofton, who would likely be willing to sign a one-year contract. I really like the idea of having an outfield with three guys who could play center field. You take away the gaps, and you end up taking a lot of runs off the board in the long run. The best recent Mariners teams featured outfields of Mark McLemore/Stan Javier/Randy Winn, Mike Cameron, and Ichiro. With outfielders like that you make your pitching staff look a whole lot better.

So best case scenario, here's what I think would be both a reasonably easy to construct, and also improved enough to contend, Mariners line up:

C: Kenji Johjima
1B: Benuardo Broussez/Cren Brousson
2B: Jose Lopez
SS: Yuniesky Betancourt
3B: Adrian Beltre
LF: J.D. Drew
CF: Ichiro
RF: Chris Snelling
DH: Raul Ibanez

I would bat the line-up: Ichiro, Snelling, Drew, Ibanez, Beltre, Broussez/Brousson, Johjima, Lopez, Betancourt. I like it. That's a line-up that would score 800-850 runs, while taking runs off the board on defense. Last season the M's scored 756 runs, while allowing 792. If they could score 50 more runs and take 50 away over the course of the season, scoring 806 runs and allowing 742 runs, they're expected win total would be 87. An 87-win team in the AL West is a definite contender, about equal to Oakland and Anaheim. Honestly, a nine win improvement over last season is not too drastic. By having Ichiro in center all year they'll be improved because it lets them add another good bat to the regular line-up, in this case Chris Snelling. Subtract Sexson, and add Drew to improve the defense by taking Ibanez out of the field. The offense will also be improved be not having Carl Everett in the line-up for most the year. By adding Jason Schmidt the starting pitching will be improved, while the bullpen will be stellar again. I'm starting to get excited thinking about this team. One another minor addition: anyone would be a better back up catcher than Rene Rivera, who might have been the worst regular back up in the majors. It wouldn't be difficult or expensive to add a competent back-up like Todd Greene. Just that could be worth another win or two.

So as it stands, the M's bench would be Todd Greene, Jeremy Reed, Willie Bloomquist, and Perez/Wilson, as Hargrove insists on carrying 12 pitchers. That wouldn't be a bad bench, but I would ideally want one more guy who could play middle infield, so that Bloomquist could be used exclusively as a pinch runner, which is what he's best suited for. Jeremy Reed will be an important piece off the bench as he can play every outfield position, and Snelling and Drew will need to be spelled fairly often, due to their injury risk. The best scenario would be for the M's to carry just 11 pitchers, and call up someone like Yung-Chi Chen or Michael Garciaparra to add infield flexibility on their bench. If they carried 14 position players, the bullpen would look like this: Putz, Soriano, Sherrill, Lowe, Mateo, and Woods. That's a solid bullpen, and having Woods around gives you an emergency starter/long relief guy/second lefty. I like this hypothetical team a lot; I think they'd be very competitive in the division, with the potential to win around 90 games and a division title. All they need to add is Jason Schmidt, Bruce Chen, J.D. Drew, Eduardo Perez/Craig Wilson, and Todd Greene. Is that too much to ask for?