Husky Front Court Dominance/Random Notes/NFL Picks, Week 16

If you're a UW basketball fan, your mood has lifted substantially in the last week. With Wednesday's 88-72 win over LSU and tonight's 80-51 win over Weber State, the Huskies have done a lot to dispel many of the concerns created by last week's thrashing at Gonzaga. After that lackluster loss, the Huskies have responded with two very complete games, playing strong defense, while Jon Brockman and Spencer Hawes have led consecutive dominant performances by the front court. After combining for 42 points and 26 rebounds on Wednesday, Brockman and Hawes came back with 41 points and 19 rebounds tonight against an overmatched Weber State team. Both players seem to have made significant strides forward since the Gonzaga, especially Hawes, who's seemed to have overcome some early season inconsistency with his last two games.

Hawes has exhibited a breathtakingly versatile offensive repertoire, both with his back to the basket and squaring up to the hoop, and using both hands for a variety of hook and jump shots. At one point against LSU, he banked in a turnaround jumper high off the glass with Glen Davis in his face, a shot I think only one other player in basketball today could make: Tim Duncan. I don't think Hawes is the same kind of overall player as Tim Duncan, but I do think he has the kind of complete offensive game that you see in a post player only a couple times a decade. One of the things that separates Hawes from Duncan as a total package is rebounding, something Duncan is very good at, while Hawes is merely average. He's not a bad rebounder by any means, but he appears impassive, willing to let other players collect rebounds he could grab. Any deficiencies in Hawes' rebounding in the last two games, though, has been picked up by Jon Brockman, who's had 26 rebounds in the last two games.

At times last year I thought that Brockman was a little disappointing, in comparison to the reputation he carried as an incoming recruit, appearing overly tentative and unable to create his own shot. Any disappointment I had with him has dissipated this year, as he has made great strides in his game, while also taking on a leadership role with the team. In roughly the same minutes per game as last year, Brockman's increased his scoring by nearly four points per game, while grabbing three and a half more rebounds per game. His offensive game still isn't very advanced, and his free-throw shooting has seemingly regressed, but he makes up for it with aggression and toughness, and has shown a willingness to create his own shot this year, while exhibiting greater range on his jump shot. The strong points of his game are rebounding and defense, and his rebounding this year has been excellent. His Rebound Rate, a stat created by John Hollinger which measures the percentage of total rebounds collected by a certain player, is 22.46 through the first ten games, meaning Brockman grabs 22.46% of all the rebounds, offensive and defensive, while he's on court. For the sake of comparison, if he were in the NBA, Brockman's Rebound Rate would lead the league. Though he obviously would not be able to rebound as well in the NBA as he can in college, I believe Brockman's rebounding is an NBA-level skill, and I don't see why he couldn't be as effective as someone like Reggie Evans or Eduardo Najera in the NBA, with more offensive upside.

The breakout performances of Hawes and Brockman in the last two games has really increased my confidence in the Huskies chances this season. There aren't many post presences in college basketball like the combination of Hawes and Brockman, and their presence also makes the Huskies less reliant on outside scoring, a skill which is much more subject to variability in performance. A team is much more likely to have an off night if they rely on 3-point shooting than if they can consistently score in the paint. I'm still wary about the Huskies lack of experience on the road heading into the conference season, but Hawes and Brockman should help out the transitional process.

Random Notes:

If you didn't get a chance to see Gilbert Arenas put up 54 points tonight against the Suns, you really missed out. I can't think of a more interesting player, on and off the court, as Arenas is right now.

Last night's Minnesota-Green Bay game was absolutely brutal to watch, especially if you had Green Bay and laid three and a half points. Every gambling rule in the world said take Green Bay: Rookie quarterback starting on the road in his first start, Brett Favre's maybe, kinda, last start at home, dome team in a cold weather city in winter, etc. So what happens? Minnesota, despite an absolutely awful performance from Tavaris Jackson (10-20 for 50 yards), get bailed out by a blocked field goal and another field goal rejected by the upright, and a Brett Favre pick-six. At least Minnesota lost, guaranteeing they hit their "under" for the season, as I had predicted.

Here's the NFL picks: Kansas City (+4) over OAKLAND, Tennessee (+4) over BUFFALO, NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over New Orleans, ATLANTA (-7) over Carolina, Washington (+3) over ST. LOUIS, Indianapolis (-9) over HOUSTON, Baltimore (+3) over PITTSBURGH, CLEVELAND (-3) over Tampa Bay, DETROIT (+6) over Chicago, JACKSONVILLE (-2.5) over New England, SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over Arizona, Cincinnati (+3) over DENVER, SEATTLE (+3.5) over San Diego, Philadelphia (+7) over DALLAS, and New York Jets (+1.5) over MIAMI.

Season Greetings; by the way, this is also my first post written from my home computer since the power came back on this morning. It's a Christmas miracle!

Power Outage!

I wasn't able to post my picks this week because my power's been out since last Thursday night. Yes, my power is still out, for nearly one week at this point. I went 10-6 on the week, bringing me to 116-106-2 on the season, and 20-12 the last two weeks. It's pretty damn hard to do much better than .500 on the season, so I'm happy that, barring a disastrous last two weeks, I should finish above .500.

NFL pro bowl picks have been released. Seahawks Walter Jones, Mack Strong, Julian Peterson, and Lofa Tatupu made the team. I think the Mack Strong selection is a little dubious, as I don't believe he's been nearly as good this season, and is partly responsible for the drop off in the Seahawk run game. I don't get too worked up over the so-called "snubs," because I believe the whole Pro Bowl/All-Star game process is incredibly flawed and mostly a popularity contest, but why is Tony Romo on the team? Has anyone watched him play the last two games? I realize that it's not exactly a stellar year for NFC quarterbacks, but Tony Romo is a Pro Bowler after playing five good games and two and a half bad ones.

With the NFL season winding down, I think it's about time to look at my preseason predictions, and see how I've done. I went through the preseason over/under lines and picked the teams I thought were good shots to go either over or under, and I also made my playoff predictions. I arrived at these ten teams as good bets to differ significantly from the preseason lines: Tennessee (5.5), San Diego (9), Chicago (9.5), Minnesota (8), New Orleans (6.5), Dallas (9.5), Philadelphia (8.5), Seattle (10.5), Arizona (8) and St. Louis (7). I liked the over for Tennessee, San Diego, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Seattle, and the under for the other five teams. As it currently stands, the Tennessee, San Diego, Chicago, and Arizona picks are already correct with two games to go. I'm already wrong on the New Orleans under pick and the Seattle over pick. If Minnesota loses one more game and Philly wins one more, those picks will be correct. My Dallas pick will be incorrect if they win one more. St. Louis is still up in the air. I think they'll most likely push. So assuming these scenarios play out, I'll probably go 6-3-1 on the preseason over/under picks. Not too bad. You'd make a lot of money hitting two-thirds of your picks. Looking at my picks, the one I missed by the furthest is New Orleans. I thought they'd be under 6.5 wins, and they currently have 9 wins. I was way off on the Saints, and I'm not afraid to admit it. The other picks I have or most likely will miss on: Seattle and Dallas. I made the Dallas pick at a time when Drew Bledsoe was their quarterback, and I think they'd definitely would've gone under 9.5 wins if he'd started all season long. I think I've overestimated Seattle all season. You can't really predict the injuries they've sustained, but I thought they'd be a much better defensive team then they have been. At this point in the season, I think it's safe to say that they're not the elite team I thought they'd be.

Here's my preseason playoff picks: for the AFC, Pittsburgh, Indy, New England, San Diego, Kansas City and Cincinnati. For the NFC, Chicago, Carolina, Seattle, Philadelphia, Atlanta and Washington. If the playoffs started today, Indy, New England, Baltimore, San Diego would be the division winners in the AFC, Dallas, Chicago, Seattle, and New Orleans in the NFC. The AFC wild cards winners will most likely be two of these teams: New York Jets, Cincinnati, Jacksonville and Denver. The NFC wild card winners will most likely be Philadelphia and one of the current 7-7 teams: the Giants and the Falcons. I'll most likely hit four or maybe five of the AFC teams, five if KC can sneak in to the playoffs, and three or maybe four of the NFC teams. The teams I've been furthest off on are Washington and Pittsburgh. Washington lost LeVar Arrington, and has had some injury issues with Clinton Portis and Shawn Springs, but to drop from a playoff team to 5-9 seems pretty drastic. I thought Pittsburgh would be much better than they've been, though I think they've been hit with some bad luck. Or karma. Just saying. Everyone alive missed the boat on Carolina. Preseason, some people were ready to hand them the Superbowl. I guess that's why you actually play out the season. My preseason Superbowl pick, Seattle over San Diego, may end up being just half right. San Diego looks like the real deal, though I think it would be a stretch for the Seahawks to return to the Superbowl. Remember though, you heard it here first, all the way back in August, San Diego Chargers Superbowl bound.

Anyway, I'm spent. Here's my pick for the Thursday game: GREEN BAY (-3.5) over Minnesota. Minnesota's starting a rookie quarterback (Tarvaris Jackson) on the road, and I don't think Jackson's very good anyway. Green Bay should win easy. And watch LSU-UW tonight; it will (hopefully) be a good game.

Mariners Continue to Slowly, but Surely, Kill Me

If you don't know yet, the Mariners have traded Chris Snelling and Emiliano Fruto to the Washington Nationals for Jose Vidro, pending the physical. This is just about as bad a trade as you can make. It does not make any sense. It reminds me of Johnny Cochrane's famous Chewbacca defense: Why would a Wookie, an eight-foot tall Wookie, want to live on Endor, with a bunch of two-foot tall Ewoks? That does not make sense! This trade just does not make sense. There is really no defense for making a trade like this. None. My initial reaction is confusion and disbelief. How can Bill Bavasi possibly be this inept? How does this man have a job as General Manager of a Major League Baseball team? Why, God, Why? What have Mariner fans done to deserve this fate? It does not make sense. It doesn't address any of the issues the Mariners have. They don't need a second baseman, and Vidro really can't play the position anymore, so they traded for a designated hitter who's not particularly great at hitting. I could possibly understand trading Chris Snelling if you have major concerns about his tendency to get injured, but Vidro also has an extensive injury history, so you're not trading for the reassurance of durability. Once again, it does not make sense. This trade also severely hampers your outfield flexibility. Do they plan on playing Jose Guillen every single day? How about 36-year old Raul Ibanez? I guess this means they keep Jeremy Reed around, who Mike Hargrove has absolutely zero confidence in. That's sounds like a good idea. Was this trade made for financial reasons? No, because they're agreeing to take on $12 million of Vidro's contract for the next two seasons in exchange for two players who would have made close to league minimum next season. It doesn't make sense. Is it part of a youth movement? No, because they acquired a 32-year old DH for a 25-year outfielder and a 22-year old reliever. Well, maybe they're expecting a better performance from Vidro than they would have gotten from Snelling. But once again, no. Snelling last year: .250/.360/.427. Vidro last year: .289/.348/.395. Snelling outhit Vidro last year. He has better power and better plate discipline, and his average should improve next year. It doesn't make sense. Chris Snelling is very likely to outhit Vidro in 2007. Both players are injury-prone, but Snelling is coming into his prime, while Vidro is in the decline phase of his career. Chris Snelling is cheap, while Vidro is not. And, hey, while we're at it, how about throwing in an interesting relief prospect? Let's just throw away one of our only commodities, power bullpen arms. That's a great idea. And don't do anything do fix the DH/1B log jam. In fact, add another player to it.

The worst part of this trade, in my opinion, is that it's not the end of the offseason manuevering. Another trade is coming. They still have to do something about Sexson, Broussard, et al. and they're looking for more starting pitching. It's absolutely terrifying to know that Bavasi is out there trying a make another trade. Anything's possible at this point. I wouldn't bat an eyelash over Felix Hernandez, Jeff Clement, and Adam Jones for Kenny Rogers. Or Corey Koskie. Maybe Bavasi could coax Mo Vaughn out of retirement. It disgusts me how set this team is on being mediocre. They're perfectly content to settle for 75 to 81 wins as long as assholes from Microsoft continue to throw away money for Terrace club seats. Here's what I would suggest to true M's fans: stay away. Don't give the M's a dime, as it's a tacit acceptance of this bland, mediocre product. Sometimes the machine becomes so odious that you must throw your body on the gears to make it stop. Let's blow up the good ship Mariner. I'm goddamn sick of this front office fucking up this team, while simultaneously bogarting the future. Honestly, it may be time to adopt another team. It's not worth the effort of trying to care for this terrible product. What's the point in trying to muster the energy, time and money required to support this team? Wouldn't I be better off just ignoring them? How much better would my quality of life be if I didn't subject myself to watching 60 combined starts by Horacio Ramirez and Miguel Batista? Or 300 Willie Bloomquist at-bats? Or 180 Ritchie Sexson K's? Or Rene Rivera's .184 OBP? Or Julio Mateo home run allowed? It does not make sense. I'll still support Felix, and the continued brilliance of Ichiro!, and I'll marvel at the defense of Beltre and Betancourt, but this team is not worth the effort required of true fandom. Thank you, Bill Bavasi, for making me just not care. The only positive consequence of your continued ineptitude is that it will guarantee that you never have another GM job. It would be criminal for you to be allowed to alienate another fan base. It would not make sense.

By the way, I like the Seahawks in tonight's game, -10.5. For some reason.

Huskies-Gonzaga: Yeah, that didn't go so well

The UW-Gonzaga game last night, well, it didn't go so well. The overall impression that I received was that the Huskies were just not ready for the game. It's a lot to ask of a young team to play their first road game against a team like Gonzaga, and it was pretty obvious that the Huskies weren't prepared for a road game of that magnitude. One of the major issues with the Huskies so far has been their slow starts to games, and that's an issue that will be compounded on the road. The biggest surprise for me was how poorly the Huskies played on defense. I expected the turnover problems and general sloppiness, but the Huskies were just awful on defense last night, especially in the first half. They were really slow on defensive rotations, which resulted in a ton of easy lay-ups for guys like Matt Boldin, and kick-outs for open threes by Derek "the Weasel Boy" Raivio. The only players for UW who impressed me were Jon Brockman and Quincy Pondexter, due to their overall composure. No one else appeared to be prepared for the game. Justin Dentmon was absolutely brutal, a real nightmare game for him. Adrian Oliver was in foul trouble and couldn't do much. Ryan Appleby was invisible. Spencer Hawes, even though he ended up with a good stat line, looked like he had forgotten how to play basketball for the first fifteen minutes of the first half; he was called for two traveling violations and an offensive foul, and also attempted two bank shots that didn't even draw rim. Gonzaga's Josh Heytvelt thoroughly outplayed Hawes. Hans Gasser didn't bring his normal gusto for setting screens, which was part of the reason why the shooters couldn't get open. That was a pretty difficult game to watch as a Husky fan; I felt like the Huskies issues were really exposed, and you have to wonder if they'll be able to get their game together before LSU comes here, and before conference play starts. I still have a lot of confidence in this Husky team, and I think they'll be really good by the end of the season, but I hope they turn it around soon and don't dig themselves a hole they can't get out of.

Also, just because I happen to be at the computer when I normally wouldn't, here are some NFL observations: do you think think Mike Shanahan would like to take back the Jay Cutler experiment about now? Hmm, yeah, in hindsight it wasn't the past decision to pull your starting quarterback during the middle of the stretch drive to the playoffs and replace him with a rookie who had yet to take a snap in an NFL game. What surprised me about that decision was how many pundits where prepared to crown Cutler's ass, to paraphrase Denny Green. Rookie quarterbacks just don't perform well, even the one's who turn out to be good quarterbacks eventually. And there's a definite difference between the situations of Matt Leinart and Vince Young and Cutler's situation. Leinart and Young have no pressure on them; they're rookie quarterbacks on shite teams, and they're not expected to do much. Cutler was put in with the expectation that he'd give Denver a better chance to reach the Superbowl, which is a completely unreasonable expectation; if you look at rookie quarterbacks in the last twenty years, Ben Roethlisberger is the only one to have even a modicum of success, and that was in a situation where he was heavily protected by a great run game and great defense. Cutler's situation is somewhat analogous, but at the same time it isn't: Roethlisberger was inserted into the starting lineup in week 2 or 3, if I recall correctly, and that was as the result of an injury to the starter and back-up. Cutler's promotion was purely elective, and come's at a crucial junction in the season. Just not a good decision by Shanahan.

Indianapolis must be the worst good team in quite some time. Jacksonville absolutely killed them today, running all over them. Anyone can run on them, and the entire league knows it at this point, and it's the perfect remedy for the Indy offense, by keeping them off the field and making them unable to get in a rhythm. I don't see Indy being able to win in the playoffs. They've still got a good shot at a first-round bye, and could possibly win their second-round game, but do they have any chance when the conference championship comes around? San Diego and Baltimore would destroy Indy, and so would New England if they get another shot at them. Cincinnati would be the only potential AFC playoff team against whom I'd give Indy the edge.

I wonder if Sports Illustrated is regretting picking Carolina-Miami for the Superbowl? There can't be a more disappointing and underachieving team than Carolina, and the "Jake Delhomme as good quarterback" ship has sailed.

I think we'll soon enter be entering the "Vince Young as overrated quarterback" era; he's just not a very good passer yet, but his running prowess covers it up. I must admit that his run to beat Houston today was absolutely awesome, though. I actually think he could end up as a more successful running quarterback than Michael Vick, due to his size. Vick just seems like he'll eventually suffer a horrific injury, and he also seems much more reliant on his running than Young, to the detriment of his passing game.

Well, I've got to finish watching the potential Hawk comeback. This team is really killing me. Seahawks just blew it. God I hate this team.

End of Short Period of Mariner Optimism subsides; and NFL Picks

I should of known it was too good to be true. Everything was shaping up so well for the Mariners going into the Winter Meetings; I should have taking it as a sign that they'd mess it up somehow. There's just too many morons running the organization, from Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong up top, and down to Bill Bavasi and Mike Hargrove, for this offseason to go perfectly. In the span of a couple days, the Mariners went from rumors of acquiring Manny Ramirez from the Red Sox or Tim Hudson and Adam Laroche from the Braves, to getting Horacio Ramirez from the Braves for one the M's top potential trading pieces, Rafael Soriano, and letting Jason Schmidt walk right by them and sign with the Dodgers. Now, I'm not privy to any special insider info on a trade like this; it may be possible that Soriano's elbow and shoulder will burst into flames six months from now, or that he's terrified to walk on grass since getting hit by a Vladimir Guerrero line drive, or that Ramirez has had a number of bionic limbs installed since his last mediocre season and now consistently throws effortless triple digits strikes for nine innings at a time. Somehow I don't find these scenarios to be that likely. Anyway, if Soriano does have substantial injury concerns, it would appear during his physical and the trade would be voided, and the M's would be stuck with damaged goods. I think it's more likely that Bavasi has once again undervalued one of his players, while simultaneously overvaluing an opponent, and has once again made a very poor trade. The Mariners have shown an ability all offseason long to acquire potential back of the rotation starters for free; they already have Cha Seung Baek and Jake Woods, picked up Justin Lehr as a minor league free agent, traded for Sean White in the Rule 5 draft, could still potentially acquire John Thomson, unless they had an issue with his injury profile. My point is, one doesn't have to give up anything to acquire these kinds of players; to give up a valuable pitcher like Soriano is asinine. Last season, Soriano was about twice as valuable as Ramirez, and only pitched 60 innings to Ramirez's 76. 2005 was the only season in the last three in which Ramirez was as valuable as Soriano was last season; the caveat in this fact is that Ramirez had to throw 202 innings that year to be as valuable as Soriano is in 60 innings. This was just not a good trade. What makes it even worse is the fact that all the information I've heard about Mark Lowe's elbow injury is very scary. There's the possibility that it's career ending, and even if it's not, he'll most likely be out until mid-season. The Mariners went from having one of the best end of the bullpen groups to having a very suspect one. Get ready for another 78 win season.

Here's the NFL picks: Baltimore (+3) over KANSAS CITY, Atlanta (-3) over TAMPA BAY, Minnesota (+1) over DETROIT, Tennessee (+1) over HOUSTON, New York Football Giants (+2.5) over CAROLINA, New Orleans (+7.5) over DALLAS, Buffalo (+3.5) over NEW YORK JETS, Indianapolis (pk) over Jacksonville, WASHINGTON (+1) over Philadelphia, CINCINNATI (-10.5) over Oakland, New England (-3.5) over MIAMI, SAN FRANCISCO (-4.5) over Green Bay, Seattle (-3) over ARIZONA, SAN DIEGO (-7.5) over Denver, and Chicago (-6) over ST. LOUIS. I like the over (43.5) for SF-GB, over (37) for NE-Miami, over (40.5) for Philly-Wash, and the under (42) for Tennessee-Houston.

Detritus

The winter meetings have started for MLB, and all the rumors I've heard suggest that the Mariners will potentially be very active. It wouldn't surprise me if they sign Jason Schmidt in the next couple days, and from what I've heard, all the Manny Ramirez rumors floating around are in fact true, though not very likely. The Red Sox number one target for Ramirez is the LA Dodgers, due to their absolutely stacked minor league system. The Mariners sound like more of a back-up plan at the moment, and any trade involving the Mariners would most likely be a three way deal involving either the SF Giants or Atlanta Braves. What I've seen is that the Sox would want Adam Jones, another prospect, and either Putz or Soriano for Ramirez. Acquiring Ramirez would necessitate dumping Ritchie Sexson's salary, which is where the Giants come in, taking Sexson and giving the M's Noah Lowry. I believe the Giants would also probably send a prospect to Boston. This would be...interesting. I'm not really sure what to like about this deal. I really like Ramirez, but I don't know how much I want him and a massive contract into the future. I'm also not sure about Lowry, who was pretty bad last year, though he had success the two previous years. I don't really want to lose Putz, who was one of the best relievers in the league last year, and who will stay cheap for a few more years. I also believe Adam Jones is a future stud, the kind of guy who you'll regret losing in a couple years. I think I need some more time to digest this, and I also need to keep in find that it won't likely happen.

I recently alluded to a secret project I was working on, and I figure it's time to unveil it. I just finished writing an initiative about genetically engineered foods, and I've started another blog around the initiative and the process in getting it onto the ballot for next year's election, called Food Democracy. I don't plan on neglecting this blog for that one; rather, I'll be pulling double duty. If you have any questions, feel free to ask, or just check out the other blog, which should have pretty regular updates for at least the next month or so.

Remember, there's another NFL game this Thursday, Cleveland (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh. I really like Cleveland's chances in this game. They've been one of the most improved teams in the league the last couple weeks, and I think they can surprise the Steelers, or at the least, keep the game close. My pick is Cleveland.

The Broncos-Seahawks game last week was an odd one. I knew going into it that the Hawks had a really good chance, mostly due to the fact that everyone alive was grossly overrating Jay Cutler before he had thrown an NFL pass, but I can't help but feel that the Seahawks just aren't very good, despite beating a good team on the road. If it wasn't for all the fumbles and Cutler handing the Seahawks a touchdown on that Plummeresque floater he threw to Darryl Tapp, the game wouldn't have been close. The Hawks couldn't stop the run for most of the game, had trouble moving the ball against Denver's D, and overall, I think they were a little lucky to escape with a win. There are definitely signs that the team is improving, and they are now 5-0 when Hasselbeck and Alexander are both starting, but they could very easily be 6-6 or worse right now if it wasn't for Josh Brown. I am happy with the improvements being made, namely that the offensive line is looking a lot better, despite Sean Locklear and Robbie Tobeck still being out with injuries. Rob Sims has looked really good in the playing time he's been given, and Chris Spencer gets better every week it seems, while Tom Ashworth isn't as awful as he was earlier in the year. I love that Nate Burleson has found his niche on punt and kick returns, vastly improving our return game, an important area of the game that is often overlooked. The Hawks have been an awful return team for several years in a row, and I was angry when they cut Willie Ponder earlier in the season to make room for the return of Gibran Hamdan, because Ponder was really good on kick returns. I want Burleson to succeed, and he's been really great on returns since being inserted there, and it's nice that the Hawks don't need to take up extra roster space with a return specialist. I also think the pass defense has looked a lot better the last couple weeks, not giving up so many long pass plays, but at the same time the defense is really getting torched by the run, especially giving up long runs. I wonder if they lack the size on the defensive line to be good against the run, which is where Marcus Tubbs' injury hurts them, and as good as Julian Peterson is as a pass rusher, I think they sacrifice against the run when he's used as a down lineman. What's good for the Hawks is that they still have time to gel before the playoffs, and they'll be able to coast toward the end, as they've got the division basically wrapped up. They have a legitimate shot at a first round bye, also, and a home playoff game, which would almost guarantee a conference finals berth, considering the Hawks home field advantage. All in all, not too bad, considering they've had Hasselbeck and/or Alexander out for seven games this year.