Week Five Review, Week Six Picks

Last week went much better. 9-5, 40-33-1 on the season. Not a whole lot to complain about; Baltimore-Denver was like a coin flip that came up heads instead of tails. Oh well. Not sure what happened to Washington; I'd stay away from them until they start playing less erratically. Kansas City kicked a field goal from the one yard line instead of going for it, or else they'd have covered. I don't know about Indy. They've been solid gold in the past, at least in the regular season, but not so much this year. Their defense is awful, and I think the offense is sandbagging it. That's the only possible explanation for scoring 14 points against the Tennessee defense in the RCA Dome. As for New Orleans, you can't possibly expect Bruce Gradkowski to play that well. I would pick the Saints in that same situation one million times out of one million.

Here are a couple random thoughts from the last week. Now that the Yankees have decided to keep Joe Torre around, there's no way A-Rod stays in New York. Someone has to take the fall; that's how the Yankees work. It's not going to be Torre, and it won't be golden boy Jeter. A-Rod's the easiest target. I think he ends up with one of the Los Angeles teams, with the Angels as the early front runner. Both those teams have prospects, are willing to spend money, are more forgiving media markets, etc. If there was one thing I wish would happen in this whole process, I wish it was this: absolutely no concessions should be made to the Yankees. I have never understood why any team would want to do anything that helps the Yankees. There is no way that the Yankees should get more than thirty cents on the dollar if they trade A-Rod. If they think they have to trade A-Rod, so be it, but I wouldn't give them a thing. Take at most half their share of the contract (about sixteen million), but I wouldn't give them more than one prospect, and it shouldn't be your top guy. The Yankees are in a different situation than the Rangers were when they traded A-Rod. The Rangers had to free up money because A-Rod's contract hamstrung them. This is the Yankees. Don't help them out monetarily, and don't give them young pitching. They actually have a pretty good pitching in their minor league system. Phillip Hughes is one of the top three minor league starters in baseball. It's like they're forced to trade A-Rod. If they don't get the offer they want, I guess they'll just have to learn to live with him, or pay him 16 mil to sit at home.

I hate the new clock rules in college football. What was lost in the aftermath of the Huskies debacle last week was that the situation would not have even arose if it wasn't for the time ran off the clock during the kickoff and as soon as the ball is set before the first play of the drive. That was at least ten seconds lost, easily, that should have still been on the clock before the last non-play.

I haven't had a lot of time to blog this week because of school, etc. I won't be around this weekend because I'll be in Portland to see Sufjan Stevens and explore. I'm pretty excited. I saw TV on the Radio at the Showbox a little over a week ago, and it was one of the best shows I've ever seen, and I'm hoping S.S. comes close. And if you don't know Sufjan Stevens or TV on the Radio, you should probably find out. It'll be worth it. On to the picks, which won't be quite as long this week:

Cincinnati (-5.5) @ Tampa Bay

I think Cincinnati should be able to bounce back coming off their bye week and the blowout against New England. I don't think Gradkowski will play quite as well as last week, and I think Cincinnati is a better team than New Orleans, even though this games in Tampa. Cincinnati

Tennessee (+10) @ Washington

I think last week's game was more a case of Indy playing terrible instead of Tennessee turning a corner. I don't think Washington will play as poorly as they did last week, either. Washington

Houston (+13) @ Dallas

I'm kinda tempted to pick Houston. I think I have an irrational soft spot for the Texans. Maybe it's that dreamy David Carr. Anyway, the rational part of my mind tells me there's no way that Houston's defense stops Dallas. There's way too many double-digit spreads this week, appropos of nothing. Never a good thing. I think Houston may be able to keep it marginally close; it's a rivalry game and crazy stuff happens in these games. Houston

Buffalo (Pk) @ Detroit

Buffalo's been pretty good passing the ball, in non-Chicago games. Detroit may have the worst pass defense in the league; Houston could probably make a run at them for worst in the league. Buffalo's pass defense matches up well with Detroit's pass offense. Buffalo

Seattle (-3) @ St. Louis

I'm expecting the pre-Chicago Hawks to show up. I'm not a believer in the Rams; they had good luck to get Denver in week one, and haven't played anyone since. They throw the ball pretty well, which worries me with the Hawks pass defense, but I don't think the Hawks will have too much trouble. Seattle

New York Giants (+3) @ Atlanta

The Giants looked really good last week against the Skins. I give them the edge in this game, I think they'll win outright. Atlanta can't throw the ball, which is the Giants weakness. Giants are real good against the run, and their offense can throw or run with anyone. Giants

Philadelphia (-3) @ New Orleans

I pulled a complete 180 with regard to the Saints, but I think Philly's too strong this week. Great passing game, great pass rush, I like their secondary, just a really good team. Philadelphia.

Carolina (+3) @ Baltimore

I think Baltimore is just a better team than Carolina, even with a crummy offense. Carolina is now 1-4 ATS, and I think it'll be 1-5 after this week. Baltimore and the Under (33.5)

Miami (+2.5) @ New York Jets

Miami looked like a real team last week. I think Joey Harrington could actually work out for them as long as he does the game manager thing and limits his mistakes. I think the Jets are coming back to Earth; Dolphins win this outright. Miami

San Diego (-10) @ San Francisco

Not much to say here. San Diego should win easy. San Fran can't stop anyone. San Diego

Kansas City (+7) @ Pittsburgh

Here's my big "upset" prediction, even though it's not much of an upset. Everyone's saying Pittsburgh will bounce back this week, but they're running into a tough opponent. I think KC's an underrated team with a really good defense so far, while Pittsburgh's offense has been terrible. I think KC will keep it close and could win it outright. Kansas City

Oakland (+15) @ Denver

I can't see Oakland score more than a touchdown, so Denver's got to score 22 points to be sure. You know what, I'm going with Oakland. Call me crazy; I'm not ready to be on the Denver bandwagon just yet. This pick seems a little too easy, like Tennessee-Indy last week. I don't think it's smart to lay double-digits in so many games. Oakland

Chicago (-10) @ Arizona

One of my favorite parts apart doing this is that every week I know that I can pick against Arizona and know that it's a lock. Chicago

There you go. Only thirteen games this week. I like Chicago (-10), Kansas City (+7), Philly (-3), and the Giants (+3). All road teams. Hmm. I like the Carolina-Baltimore Under (33.5), Oakland-Denver Under (36), Houston-Dallas Over (43), and the Tennessee-Washington Over (39).

Week Five NFL Picks

I'm ready to put last week behind me. It is over, in the past, done. I'm moving on. That said, it seems like the perfect week for the Hawks to have a bye. Also, I left some stats out of my last post. Here they are:

Home vs. Spread: 10-4 last week. Now 30-29-1 against the spread for the season. Home teams are now 31-29 overall.

Favorites vs. Spread: 8-6 last week. 26-33-1 for the season. 37-21 overall.

NFC-AFC vs. Spread. 2-2 last week. NFC is 6-5 against the AFC, 6-5 against the spread.

And here's something new; this is the NFL standings, by record against the spread:

AFC East AFC North

Buffalo 3-1 Baltimore 3-1
NYJ 3-1 Cincinnati 3-1
NE 2-2 Cleveland 2-2
Miami 0-4 Pittsburgh 1-2

AFC West AFC South

San Diego 2-1 Indianapolis 2-1-1
Kansas City 2-1 Jacksonville 2-1-1
Denver 1-2 Houston 1-3
Oakland 0-3 Tennessee 1-3

NFC East NFC North

Philadelphia 3-1 Chicago 3-1
Dallas 2-1 Minnesota 3-1
Washington 2-2 Green Bay 1-3
NYG 2-1 Detroit 1-3

NFC West NFC South

St. Louis 3-1 New Orleans 4-0
Seattle 2-2 Atlanta 3-1
San Francisco 2-2 Tampa Bay 1-2
Arizona 0-4 Carolina 0-4

Interesting. Miami, Oakland, Arizona, and Carolina have either made or lost a lot of money for people, depending on whether you're going for or against them. I imagine there aren't many people happy with Miami, Arizona, or Carolina. Hopefully the good people of New Orleans have been putting a lot of money on the Saints. On to the picks.

Tennessee (+18.5) @ Indianapolis

I would normally call this spread a joke, but it's completely justified. Tennessee is absolutely awful. They can't run or pass the ball, and they can't stop the run or the pass. Just ugly. Indianapolis. I would tentatively recommend the over, because Indy should score 30-40 points easily, but I don't know if Tennessee will be able to score. We'll see.

Washington (+5) @ New York Giants

I'm pretty excited about this game. There will be a lot of scoring, guarantee it. Neither team can stop the pass, while both teams can throw the ball. Both teams can run the ball, too, and the strength of both defenses is against the run. Really good matchups. I think Washington should be able to keep it close, maybe win it outright. Washington and the Over (45.5)

Detroit (+6.5) @ Minnesota

This should be interesting. Minnesota is pretty bad on offense, while Detroit can't stop the pass at all, but is very good against the run. Minnesota's strength is their defense, while Detroit is mediocre on offense, but is coming off a big offensive game. Minnesota.

Tampa Bay (+6.5) @ New Orleans

The Bruce Gradkowski era is upon us, and I can't contain my excitement. I'm surprised this spread isn't larger. The rationale seems to be that it should be a low scoring game, but I think New Orleans isn't getting enough respect, still. They're 3-1, and hung tough with Carolina last week, and they may have the best home-field advantage this year. New Orleans

St. Louis (-2.5) @ Green Bay

Another spread I'm surprised isn't larger. I think St. Louis wins this easy. Their defensive strength, guarding the pass, matches up well with Green Bay's offensive strength. Green Bay can't run the ball, and St. Louis should be able to pass on them. St. Louis

Miami (+9.5) @ New England

There's no way in hell I take Miami here. Miami's going to have to beat me for about three weeks in a row, badly, for me to change my opinion of them. Terrible offense, and the Culpepper-Joey Harrington quarterback controversy is officially on. This is hi-larious. New England

Buffalo (+10) @ Chicago

I like this Buffalo team, but I don't know if they can hang with Chicago. I actually think this'll be closer than the Seattle game (This is the last time I ever mention that game, I promise), but Chicago's defense is just too good. I think the over/under is a little low on this game (34.5), but I'm not sure I'd put money on it. Buffalo's been able to throw the ball well, and their defense is much better against the pass, but both of these clash with Chicago's strengths, stopping the pass (and the run) and throwing the ball. Chicago

Cleveland (+7.5) @ Carolina

It's very tempting to ride Carolina, but Cleveland is just awful. I don't see why this spread is comparable to the spread from the New Orleans game last week. New Orleans is a much better team than Cleveland. Cleveland's bad on offense, but they seem to be able to score some points. Carolina's defense has been surprisingly bad this year, as most people figured their defense to be their strength going into the year. I like Carolina and the Over (37.5)

New York Jets (+6.5) @ Jacksonville

We'll see this week if the Jets are for real. Hanging with Indy's bad defense at home is much different than sticking with Jacksonville on the road. New York can throw the ball, but can't run, and the Jets don't play defense very well. Jacksonville threw the ball really well last week, and Washington's defense is much better than New York's. At the same time, Washington moved the ball easily against Jacksonville through the air, and New York can throw. I think there will be more scoring in this one than people expect. I like Jacksonville and the Over (37).

Kansas City (-3.5) @ Arizona

I don't see why this spread is 3.5 points. This is going to be a blowout. Does no one else realize just how bad Arizona is? Seriously, they're terrible. Kansas City just beat San Francisco by 41 points, and I think Arizona and San Francisco are very comparable teams. I know KC did that at home, but home field advantage isn't worth 35 points a game. This is a mortal lock. Larry Johnson should run for about 500 yards. Kansas City

Oakland (+3.5) @ San Francisco

I'm not sure what to say about this one. I don't know if anyone outside of the Bay area will watch this; literally zero people outside of California will watch this game. The spread is calling these teams about even, giving the 3.5 to SF for home field. I think San Fran is definitely better than Oakland, so I'll go with them. San Francisco

Dallas (+2) @ Philadelphia

I really don't care to hear another word about this game. I think it's time for a moratorium on all Terrell Owens-related stories. Compounded with the fact that the Cowboys are involved, my least favorite team, and I just don't care. I think Philly wins this game pretty easily. I think Dallas is a very overrated team, and no one's giving Philly enough credit yet. Philadelphia

Pittsburgh (+3.5) @ San Diego

I think San Diego wins this game with ease. The combination of Pittsburgh's offense and San Diego defense makes me think there won't be many points for the Steelers. Pittsburgh's defense is very good, but I think San Diego should be able to score on them. I like San Diego. I don't think there will be much scoring, so I also like the Under (37).

Baltimore (+4) @ Denver

I haven't given Baltimore much credit this year, mostly because I think their offense isn't very good, especially their running game, but I like them this week. Denver still hasn't shown me much. Their defense is good, but I don't know about their offense yet, which is not a very good thing to have going into a game against a defense like Baltimore's. Denver may win it, but I don't see them winning by more than a field goal. Baltimore

So, that's my picks. I feel good about these picks, even though it seems like it's a little favorite heavy. Here's my best bets:

Kansas City (-3.5)
St. Louis (-2.5)
New Orleans (-6.5)
Philadelphia (-2)

Pittsburgh-San Diego (37) Under
NYJ-Jacksonville (37) Over
Cleveland-Carolina (37.5) Over
Washington-NYG (45.5) Over

Give me yr. thoughts in the comments.

Week Four Picks, Reviewed, plus MLB Playoffs

Last Sunday was one of those days that gamblers dread. I'd felt great about my picks, fantastic, to tell the truth, and in hindsight, probably a little too good. All week I'd been entertaining visions of a 10-4, maybe even 11-3, hitting all my over/unders, riding off into the sunset on a majestic steed, a buxom lass in tow. Indeed. Ho Ho. It was not meant to be. The gambling gods descended from on high, and like King Herod, an angel of justice smote me down in my place. The Hubris! The first week of games I could actually sit down and watch like a man, on a couch with salty snacks and a refreshing beverage, started out innocently enough. San Diego-Baltimore was the first game, a game I felt great about, my dark horse Super Bowl pick, San Diego, having been freshly coronated by the national media with Bill Simmons ranking them #1 in his last column. The game started well, San Diego defiantly marching down the field against Baltimore on their first drive, Phillip Rivers throwing a long touchdown pass to cap it off. The route was on, or so it appeared. Baltimore managed to hang around for the rest of the half, and then it happened. Marty Schottenheimer reared his overly-conversative play-calling head. Suddenly San Diego couldn't move the ball, and Baltimore was in the game. Around the time of the intentional safety/near botched punt debacle, the game became officially frightening. The final Baltimore drive was inevitable, a seemingly washed-up Steve McNair leading the Ravens down the field for six points with mechanical efficiency.

My morning was already ruined. New Orleans was hanging in with Carolina, Miami was predictably blowing it against Houston, and the indians were descending upon the Arizona wagontrain with blood in their eyes, but I couldn't catch a break otherwise. Kansas City was back to looking like a playoff team, Minnesota couldn't score on Buffalo, Dallas was showing no ill effects from the T.O. suicide watch, and the J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS were matching Indy blow for blow.

By the afternoon slate, I was in the grip of a full-blown panic attack. What if I never picked another game correctly? The Pats were blowing out Cincy, Oakland had inexplicably put up three first-half touchdowns (the Madness!) against Cleveland, Detroit and St. Louis were in a shoot-out (what happened to the Rams D?), and Washington had returned to their status as a very dangerous team to gamble against with their renewed ability to get Santana Moss the ball in space.

Thankfully, the gods offered me a reprieve. Cleveland came back, a late touchdown pass gave St. Louis the win by a TD. It would be, at least, a salvagable week. With the Sunday night and Monday night games still to go, I even entertained thoughts of going .500. Ha. Don't get too cocky. The Hawks laid down for the Bears, while the Eagles covered, but Green Bay couldn't score in the second-half to hit the over. So that's how it all broke down. 6-8 on the week, now 31-28-1 overall. 1-3 on my best bets (Good God), 1-3 on my over/unders. Now 3-5 on the BB's and 4-4 on over/unders. I keep saying it could of been worse. Hopefully this week is better. Haven't had a chance to look at the lines for this week, distracted by school and playoff baseball. Picks'll be up tomorrow afternoon or Friday early.

As to the MLB playoffs: I started a post on them, a detailed breakdown of each playoff series. Seriously, it would've ran 10,000+ words, easily, and been obsolete within the week. So I scrapped it, and I'll just throw my predictions onto this.

I love the A's this year. I don't think anyone has the combo of starting pitching and defense to beat them. I think the Twins would be the toughest team to compete with if Francisco Liriano, but alas, it may be quite awhile before we see Johan and Liriano together at full strength. I don't exaggerate when I say they could be the greatest starting pitcher combination ever. Better than Koufax-Drysdale, better than the Big Unit and Schilling, or at least on par. I don't like the Yankees pitching, I think Detroit peaked too early, and their pitching will collapse against the Yankees. I think Oakland dispatches the Yankees with alarming efficiency, leading to Steinbrenner blowing up the team in the offseason. In the National League, I think the Mets beat the Dodgers, even with the Mets terrible pitching situation, and the Padres beat the Cardinals, even with the 1-0 deficit. Beyond Carpenter, the Cardinals might have the worst playoff rotation we've seen in quite some time. I think the Mets lack of pitching catches up to them in the NLCS, and the World Series features the A's and the Padres. The east coast will complain that all the games start after its bedtime. I think the A's win it all, as Billy Beane's shit will finally work in the playoffs.

That is all.

Online Gambling Ban

Has anyone heard anything about the online gambling ban? If you have, do you know how said ban will affect companies such as Neteller? If Neteller is in fact affected, will one still be able to transfer money from a Neteller account into an American bank account? All of this is purely hypothetical, of course.

My two cents as to this matter is that this is utter bullshit. This is the US government ruling in favor of corporations over individual citizens right to make a living. Gambling is legal in every state, at least in the form of lotteries. There are tribal casinos all over the place. I hate that idiot taxes such as lottos, scratch tickets, and pull tabs are left in place while online poker, blackjack, sportsbooks, the games with the lowest or non-existent house advantages, the games that involve actual talent or ability to exploit inefficient systems, are affected. Argh.

I'm moving to Iceland.