Week 5 NFL Picks

8-6 last week, 32-26-4 on the season.

Seattle (+6)
Arizona (-3.5)
Baltimore (-3)
San Diego (+1.5)
GREEN BAY (-3)
HOUSTON (-5.5)
Tampa Bay (+10)
Jacksonville (-2)
Cleveland (+17)
NY GIANTS (-3)
Carolina (+3)
TENNESSEE (+8)
WASHINGTON (-3.5)
BUFFALO (+10)

Does anyone else watching the MLB playoffs think that Cal Ripken looks like Marlon Brando in "Apocalypse Now"? Anyone?

Week 4 NFL Picks

8-5-3 last week, 24-20-4 on the season. Byes start this week, so there are only 14 games on the docket. Here's my picks for this week, home teams in caps:

Seattle (-2)
Baltimore (-4)
Tampa Bay (+3)
DETROIT (+3)
DALLAS (-13)
Green Bay (-2)
Houston (-3)
Denver (+9.5)
Oakland (+4.5)
NY Jets (-3.5)
Philadelphia (-2.5)
Pittsburgh (-6)
Kansas City (+11.5)
New England (-7)

Week 3 Picks

I was away from a computer all of last week, and never got a chance to post my week 2 picks, which looked like this:

Seattle -3
NY Jets +10
Houston +6.5
Chicago -12.5
Cincinnati -7
Dallas -3.5
Denver +10
Detroit -3
Indianapolis -7
Jacksonville -10
Green Bay Pk
New England -3.5
Tampa Bay +3
Buffalo +10
San Francisco +3
Philly -7

So I went 7-8-1 for the week, after going 9-7 in week one. 16-15-1 for the season.

Another full slate of games this week, as the NFL has smartly done away with the practice of starting the bye weeks after week 2. Here's my picks, home teams in CAPS:

SEATTLE -3.5
Arizona +8
ATLANTA +3.5
Dallas +3
Jacksonville +3
Indianapolis -6
Minnesota +3
Buffalo +16.5
NEW YORK JETS -3
OAKLAND -3
PHILADELPHIA -6
PITTSBURGH -9
GREEN BAY +5
TAMPA BAY -3.5
WASHINGTON -3.5
Tennessee +4.5

I'm pretty confident in the Washington and Tampa Bay picks; I think both teams have a good shot to make the play-offs in the NFC. I picked Buffalo because I don't want to lay 16.5 points ever.

Week 1 NFL Picks

Well, I started off the prognosticating season on the right foot, as Indy repeatedly torched Jason David (Washington State Alum) to roll to an easy cover, 41-10. It wasn't surprising that the Colts were able to put up a lot of points, but I don't think anyone was expecting them to shut down the Saints offense so thoroughly. I'm not ready to crown their asses, but that was an impressive start to the season.

With the excitement of two full slates of games until the bye week to distract me from the Mariners, on to the picks:

Atlanta (+2.5) over MINNESOTA

Tarvaris Jackson is even worse than Joey Harrington, plus he has that awkward sounding 'r' in the first sylable of his name.

Carolina (+1) over ST. LOUIS

I just don't like this Rams team. I can't quite explain it.

Denver (-3.5) over BUFFALO

HOUSTON (-3) over Kansas City

I think these teams are in for long seasons.

WASHINGTON (-2.5) over Miami

This line is way off. I think Washington's got a good chance to make the playoffs, and Miami's a 5-6 win team.

NEW YORK JETS (+6.5) over New England

I don't think the Jets will win outright, but I think they have a good shot to cover at home. New England's good, but I don't think they're quite as good as popular consensus makes them out to be.

Philadelphia (-2.5) over GREEN BAY

I think Philly could be the best team in the NFC when McNabb is healthy.

Pittsburgh (-4.5) over CLEVELAND

Are these the two fattest fan bases? Discuss.

JACKSONVILLE (-7) over Tennessee

Jacksonville's defense is going to be really good this year. Just my opinion.

SAN DIEGO (-5.5) over Chicago

Not very confident in this pick.

Detroit (+1.5) over OAKLAND

Worst game of the week?

SEATTLE (-6) over Tampa Bay

I always pick the Seahawks.

New York Giants (+6) over DALLAS

Just a hunch, but I think Dallas is really overrated this year. Plus I hate the Dallas Cowboys.

Baltimore (+2.5) over CINCINNATI

I'm very bullish on Baltimore this year.

SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) over Arizona

Another line that's way off; it suggests that these are equal teams on a neutral field, and I think San Francisco is a superior team.

Well, that's the picks. Give me yr questions, opinions, and anonymous slander in the comments.

The Prodigal Blogger Returns

It's been awhile, hasn't it? Football season has sneaked up on me, and the first regular season game is currently two hours away. I just haven't had the time to put up a more in-depth NFL season preview, so I'm going to do a condensed version of what I did last year, with my play-off picks and my top-ten picks to either out-play or under-play their Vegas pre-season over/under win totals. I'll also put up my pick for tonight's game.

Without further adieu, here are my top-ten over/under picks, with the o/u wins in parenthesis:

St. Louis (7.5) Under
Green Bay (7.5) Over
Jacksonville (9) Over
Oakland (5) Over
Dallas (9) Under
Kansas City (7.5) Under
Miami (8) Under
Philadelphia (9) Over
Detroit (6) Over
Tampa Bay (7) Over

And for my play-off picks:

AFC Division Champs: New England, Indianapolis, Baltimore, San Diego
AFC Wild cards: Jacksonville and Pittsburgh

NFC Division Champs: Philadelphia, Green Bay, New Orleans, Seattle
NFC Wild Cards: Washington and Tampa Bay

And for tonight's opener I like Indianapolis (-6) over New Orleans. I would lean toward taking the over, but the line (52.5) is a little too high for me to be real confident in taking that pick.

Opening Day

I am so fucking excited for baseball season. Mariners open today, Felix is on the mound against the A's, it doesn't get any better than that. There's also a ton of games on TV through the day; I just caught the 2nd inning of Yankees-Devil Rays. I must admit to having a silly infatuation with the D-Rays; they're everything you want in a bad baseball team. What I like best about them is that they're interesting to watch: young with a bunch of interesting prospects, amazingly athletic. Their lineup is like a roll call of Baseball America top prospect lists through the years: B.J. Upton, Dioner Navarro, Delmon Young, they're packed with young talent. They also have the craziest man in baseball you may not know about: Elijah Dukes. This dude is intense. Big rap sheet, his father is in prison for murder, came from the same high school as Gary Sheffield, Carl Everett, and Dwight Gooden (there must be something in the water there. Something crazy). He's also 6-2, 250 lbs, and athletic enough to play centerfield, which is insane.

In a related note, my baseball viewing season got off to an auspicious beginning. I turned on ESPN, and proceeded to watch Dukes coax a full-count walk against Carl Pavano, one of those little things a baseball fan loves to see, and then B.J. Upton comes up, runners on first and second, two outs. What proceeds to happen was a double whammy of ethic proportions for a Yankee hater: Upton with a ground ball up the middle, past a diving Jeter! (this was not a very hard hit ball, and Jeter couldn't make two full steps to his left. But who am I to argue with his Gold Glove Defense?) Then, Dukes made what should of been a baserunning mistake, trying to go first-to-third on that ball, then hesitating when he rounded second, but he's bailed out by the girly throwing arm of Johnny Damon! Seriously, Damon had a through of about 120 feet, and he three-hopped the ball, and pulled the third baseman twenty feet off the bag; there hasn't been a worse arm in baseball since Otis Nixon. And you know what, this is what baseball is all about: getting enjoyment out of Derek Jeter's lack of range and Johnny Damon's girly throws. Okay, maybe that's not what baseball is all about, but it's a source of entertainment for me. (Cut me some slack, it's opening day and I'm delirious).

UW basketball, baseball season begins

Yesterday's win over UCLA was the kind of game I've been expecting from UW all season. This has been a disappointing season, but I think this a very promising team with a lot of young talent, that should be really good next year. I like their chances in the NIT, and they do still have an outside shot at making the NCAA tournament. They enter the Pac-10 tournament with momentum, and I think if they can reach the title game, they should make the field of 64. Even if they don't, I think the Huskies have a good shot at winning the NIT, which would be nice to have on the mantle heading into next year. I don't know much about this year's recruiting class, so I think I'll have to check that out and get back to you. A lot of next year depends on whether Spencer Hawes returns, and I think it'd be in his best interest to come back for at least one more year. He still has holes in his game, specifically his rebounding intensity and turnovers. With the depth of this year's draft class, I think he'd be better off to work on his game for another year, then leave next year as a top-5 pick, most likely.


Baseball is finally here! Not even an awful offseason for the Mariners can temper my enthusiasm. Here's what I plan on doing soon: I'd like to put out player rankings for fantasy purposes and general debate, take a look at the pre-season win over/unders for MLB, like I did for NFL (Gambling!), and maybe put out previews for some teams that I find interesting, surprising, etc. I'll also probably revise the earlier post I did on the Mariners, with the pitching additions. I don't think there will be much change, but it's worth a shot. For what's it's worth, the Mariners over/under is 76.5 wins, they're 100-1 to win the world series, and 10-1 to win the AL West. Actually, that 10-1 to win the west isn't a bad bet; I think the West looks pretty much even. I think Oakland was kind of lucky last year, and they've taken a step back, I'm not sold on the Angels offense, and Texas is Texas. I also like the over for the Mariners wins.