Week 4 NFL Picks

8-5-3 last week, 24-20-4 on the season. Byes start this week, so there are only 14 games on the docket. Here's my picks for this week, home teams in caps:

Seattle (-2)
Baltimore (-4)
Tampa Bay (+3)
DETROIT (+3)
DALLAS (-13)
Green Bay (-2)
Houston (-3)
Denver (+9.5)
Oakland (+4.5)
NY Jets (-3.5)
Philadelphia (-2.5)
Pittsburgh (-6)
Kansas City (+11.5)
New England (-7)

Week 3 Picks

I was away from a computer all of last week, and never got a chance to post my week 2 picks, which looked like this:

Seattle -3
NY Jets +10
Houston +6.5
Chicago -12.5
Cincinnati -7
Dallas -3.5
Denver +10
Detroit -3
Indianapolis -7
Jacksonville -10
Green Bay Pk
New England -3.5
Tampa Bay +3
Buffalo +10
San Francisco +3
Philly -7

So I went 7-8-1 for the week, after going 9-7 in week one. 16-15-1 for the season.

Another full slate of games this week, as the NFL has smartly done away with the practice of starting the bye weeks after week 2. Here's my picks, home teams in CAPS:

SEATTLE -3.5
Arizona +8
ATLANTA +3.5
Dallas +3
Jacksonville +3
Indianapolis -6
Minnesota +3
Buffalo +16.5
NEW YORK JETS -3
OAKLAND -3
PHILADELPHIA -6
PITTSBURGH -9
GREEN BAY +5
TAMPA BAY -3.5
WASHINGTON -3.5
Tennessee +4.5

I'm pretty confident in the Washington and Tampa Bay picks; I think both teams have a good shot to make the play-offs in the NFC. I picked Buffalo because I don't want to lay 16.5 points ever.

Week 1 NFL Picks

Well, I started off the prognosticating season on the right foot, as Indy repeatedly torched Jason David (Washington State Alum) to roll to an easy cover, 41-10. It wasn't surprising that the Colts were able to put up a lot of points, but I don't think anyone was expecting them to shut down the Saints offense so thoroughly. I'm not ready to crown their asses, but that was an impressive start to the season.

With the excitement of two full slates of games until the bye week to distract me from the Mariners, on to the picks:

Atlanta (+2.5) over MINNESOTA

Tarvaris Jackson is even worse than Joey Harrington, plus he has that awkward sounding 'r' in the first sylable of his name.

Carolina (+1) over ST. LOUIS

I just don't like this Rams team. I can't quite explain it.

Denver (-3.5) over BUFFALO

HOUSTON (-3) over Kansas City

I think these teams are in for long seasons.

WASHINGTON (-2.5) over Miami

This line is way off. I think Washington's got a good chance to make the playoffs, and Miami's a 5-6 win team.

NEW YORK JETS (+6.5) over New England

I don't think the Jets will win outright, but I think they have a good shot to cover at home. New England's good, but I don't think they're quite as good as popular consensus makes them out to be.

Philadelphia (-2.5) over GREEN BAY

I think Philly could be the best team in the NFC when McNabb is healthy.

Pittsburgh (-4.5) over CLEVELAND

Are these the two fattest fan bases? Discuss.

JACKSONVILLE (-7) over Tennessee

Jacksonville's defense is going to be really good this year. Just my opinion.

SAN DIEGO (-5.5) over Chicago

Not very confident in this pick.

Detroit (+1.5) over OAKLAND

Worst game of the week?

SEATTLE (-6) over Tampa Bay

I always pick the Seahawks.

New York Giants (+6) over DALLAS

Just a hunch, but I think Dallas is really overrated this year. Plus I hate the Dallas Cowboys.

Baltimore (+2.5) over CINCINNATI

I'm very bullish on Baltimore this year.

SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) over Arizona

Another line that's way off; it suggests that these are equal teams on a neutral field, and I think San Francisco is a superior team.

Well, that's the picks. Give me yr questions, opinions, and anonymous slander in the comments.

The Prodigal Blogger Returns

It's been awhile, hasn't it? Football season has sneaked up on me, and the first regular season game is currently two hours away. I just haven't had the time to put up a more in-depth NFL season preview, so I'm going to do a condensed version of what I did last year, with my play-off picks and my top-ten picks to either out-play or under-play their Vegas pre-season over/under win totals. I'll also put up my pick for tonight's game.

Without further adieu, here are my top-ten over/under picks, with the o/u wins in parenthesis:

St. Louis (7.5) Under
Green Bay (7.5) Over
Jacksonville (9) Over
Oakland (5) Over
Dallas (9) Under
Kansas City (7.5) Under
Miami (8) Under
Philadelphia (9) Over
Detroit (6) Over
Tampa Bay (7) Over

And for my play-off picks:

AFC Division Champs: New England, Indianapolis, Baltimore, San Diego
AFC Wild cards: Jacksonville and Pittsburgh

NFC Division Champs: Philadelphia, Green Bay, New Orleans, Seattle
NFC Wild Cards: Washington and Tampa Bay

And for tonight's opener I like Indianapolis (-6) over New Orleans. I would lean toward taking the over, but the line (52.5) is a little too high for me to be real confident in taking that pick.