Utility Infielder

Week 5 NFL Picks

2007-10-05T15:29:00.000-07:00

8-6 last week, 32-26-4 on the season.

Seattle (+6)
Arizona (-3.5)
Baltimore (-3)
San Diego (+1.5)
GREEN BAY (-3)
HOUSTON (-5.5)
Tampa Bay (+10)
Jacksonville (-2)
Cleveland (+17)
NY GIANTS (-3)
Carolina (+3)
TENNESSEE (+8)
WASHINGTON (-3.5)
BUFFALO (+10)

Does anyone else watching the MLB playoffs think that Cal Ripken looks like Marlon Brando in "Apocalypse Now"? Anyone?

Week 4 NFL Picks

2007-09-28T14:42:00.000-07:00

8-5-3 last week, 24-20-4 on the season. Byes start this week, so there are only 14 games on the docket. Here's my picks for this week, home teams in caps:

Seattle (-2)
Baltimore (-4)
Tampa Bay (+3)
DETROIT (+3)
DALLAS (-13)
Green Bay (-2)
Houston (-3)
Denver (+9.5)
Oakland (+4.5)
NY Jets (-3.5)
Philadelphia (-2.5)
Pittsburgh (-6)
Kansas City (+11.5)
New England (-7)

Week 3 Picks

2007-09-21T13:45:00.000-07:00

I was away from a computer all of last week, and never got a chance to post my week 2 picks, which looked like this:

Seattle -3
NY Jets +10
Houston +6.5
Chicago -12.5
Cincinnati -7
Dallas -3.5
Denver +10
Detroit -3
Indianapolis -7
Jacksonville -10
Green Bay Pk
New England -3.5
Tampa Bay +3
Buffalo +10
San Francisco +3
Philly -7

So I went 7-8-1 for the week, after going 9-7 in week one. 16-15-1 for the season.

Another full slate of games this week, as the NFL has smartly done away with the practice of starting the bye weeks after week 2. Here's my picks, home teams in CAPS:

SEATTLE -3.5
Arizona +8
ATLANTA +3.5
Dallas +3
Jacksonville +3
Indianapolis -6
Minnesota +3
Buffalo +16.5
NEW YORK JETS -3
OAKLAND -3
PHILADELPHIA -6
PITTSBURGH -9
GREEN BAY +5
TAMPA BAY -3.5
WASHINGTON -3.5
Tennessee +4.5

I'm pretty confident in the Washington and Tampa Bay picks; I think both teams have a good shot to make the play-offs in the NFC. I picked Buffalo because I don't want to lay 16.5 points ever.

Week 1 NFL Picks

2007-09-07T14:00:00.000-07:00

Well, I started off the prognosticating season on the right foot, as Indy repeatedly torched Jason David (Washington State Alum) to roll to an easy cover, 41-10. It wasn't surprising that the Colts were able to put up a lot of points, but I don't think anyone was expecting them to shut down the Saints offense so thoroughly. I'm not ready to crown their asses, but that was an impressive start to the season.

With the excitement of two full slates of games until the bye week to distract me from the Mariners, on to the picks:

Atlanta (+2.5) over MINNESOTA

Tarvaris Jackson is even worse than Joey Harrington, plus he has that awkward sounding 'r' in the first sylable of his name.

Carolina (+1) over ST. LOUIS

I just don't like this Rams team. I can't quite explain it.

Denver (-3.5) over BUFFALO

HOUSTON (-3) over Kansas City

I think these teams are in for long seasons.

WASHINGTON (-2.5) over Miami

This line is way off. I think Washington's got a good chance to make the playoffs, and Miami's a 5-6 win team.

NEW YORK JETS (+6.5) over New England

I don't think the Jets will win outright, but I think they have a good shot to cover at home. New England's good, but I don't think they're quite as good as popular consensus makes them out to be.

Philadelphia (-2.5) over GREEN BAY

I think Philly could be the best team in the NFC when McNabb is healthy.

Pittsburgh (-4.5) over CLEVELAND

Are these the two fattest fan bases? Discuss.

JACKSONVILLE (-7) over Tennessee

Jacksonville's defense is going to be really good this year. Just my opinion.

SAN DIEGO (-5.5) over Chicago

Not very confident in this pick.

Detroit (+1.5) over OAKLAND

Worst game of the week?

SEATTLE (-6) over Tampa Bay

I always pick the Seahawks.

New York Giants (+6) over DALLAS

Just a hunch, but I think Dallas is really overrated this year. Plus I hate the Dallas Cowboys.

Baltimore (+2.5) over CINCINNATI

I'm very bullish on Baltimore this year.

SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) over Arizona

Another line that's way off; it suggests that these are equal teams on a neutral field, and I think San Francisco is a superior team.

Well, that's the picks. Give me yr questions, opinions, and anonymous slander in the comments.

The Prodigal Blogger Returns

2007-09-06T15:25:00.001-07:00

It's been awhile, hasn't it? Football season has sneaked up on me, and the first regular season game is currently two hours away. I just haven't had the time to put up a more in-depth NFL season preview, so I'm going to do a condensed version of what I did last year, with my play-off picks and my top-ten picks to either out-play or under-play their Vegas pre-season over/under win totals. I'll also put up my pick for tonight's game.

Without further adieu, here are my top-ten over/under picks, with the o/u wins in parenthesis:

St. Louis (7.5) Under
Green Bay (7.5) Over
Jacksonville (9) Over
Oakland (5) Over
Dallas (9) Under
Kansas City (7.5) Under
Miami (8) Under
Philadelphia (9) Over
Detroit (6) Over
Tampa Bay (7) Over

And for my play-off picks:

AFC Division Champs: New England, Indianapolis, Baltimore, San Diego
AFC Wild cards: Jacksonville and Pittsburgh

NFC Division Champs: Philadelphia, Green Bay, New Orleans, Seattle
NFC Wild Cards: Washington and Tampa Bay

And for tonight's opener I like Indianapolis (-6) over New Orleans. I would lean toward taking the over, but the line (52.5) is a little too high for me to be real confident in taking that pick.

Opening Day

2007-04-02T10:52:00.000-07:00

I am so fucking excited for baseball season. Mariners open today, Felix is on the mound against the A's, it doesn't get any better than that. There's also a ton of games on TV through the day; I just caught the 2nd inning of Yankees-Devil Rays. I must admit to having a silly infatuation with the D-Rays; they're everything you want in a bad baseball team. What I like best about them is that they're interesting to watch: young with a bunch of interesting prospects, amazingly athletic. Their lineup is like a roll call of Baseball America top prospect lists through the years: B.J. Upton, Dioner Navarro, Delmon Young, they're packed with young talent. They also have the craziest man in baseball you may not know about: Elijah Dukes. This dude is intense. Big rap sheet, his father is in prison for murder, came from the same high school as Gary Sheffield, Carl Everett, and Dwight Gooden (there must be something in the water there. Something crazy). He's also 6-2, 250 lbs, and athletic enough to play centerfield, which is insane.

In a related note, my baseball viewing season got off to an auspicious beginning. I turned on ESPN, and proceeded to watch Dukes coax a full-count walk against Carl Pavano, one of those little things a baseball fan loves to see, and then B.J. Upton comes up, runners on first and second, two outs. What proceeds to happen was a double whammy of ethic proportions for a Yankee hater: Upton with a ground ball up the middle, past a diving Jeter! (this was not a very hard hit ball, and Jeter couldn't make two full steps to his left. But who am I to argue with his Gold Glove Defense?) Then, Dukes made what should of been a baserunning mistake, trying to go first-to-third on that ball, then hesitating when he rounded second, but he's bailed out by the girly throwing arm of Johnny Damon! Seriously, Damon had a through of about 120 feet, and he three-hopped the ball, and pulled the third baseman twenty feet off the bag; there hasn't been a worse arm in baseball since Otis Nixon. And you know what, this is what baseball is all about: getting enjoyment out of Derek Jeter's lack of range and Johnny Damon's girly throws. Okay, maybe that's not what baseball is all about, but it's a source of entertainment for me. (Cut me some slack, it's opening day and I'm delirious).

UW basketball, baseball season begins

2007-03-04T13:37:00.000-08:00

Yesterday's win over UCLA was the kind of game I've been expecting from UW all season. This has been a disappointing season, but I think this a very promising team with a lot of young talent, that should be really good next year. I like their chances in the NIT, and they do still have an outside shot at making the NCAA tournament. They enter the Pac-10 tournament with momentum, and I think if they can reach the title game, they should make the field of 64. Even if they don't, I think the Huskies have a good shot at winning the NIT, which would be nice to have on the mantle heading into next year. I don't know much about this year's recruiting class, so I think I'll have to check that out and get back to you. A lot of next year depends on whether Spencer Hawes returns, and I think it'd be in his best interest to come back for at least one more year. He still has holes in his game, specifically his rebounding intensity and turnovers. With the depth of this year's draft class, I think he'd be better off to work on his game for another year, then leave next year as a top-5 pick, most likely.

Baseball is finally here! Not even an awful offseason for the Mariners can temper my enthusiasm. Here's what I plan on doing soon: I'd like to put out player rankings for fantasy purposes and general debate, take a look at the pre-season win over/unders for MLB, like I did for NFL (Gambling!), and maybe put out previews for some teams that I find interesting, surprising, etc. I'll also probably revise the earlier post I did on the Mariners, with the pitching additions. I don't think there will be much change, but it's worth a shot. For what's it's worth, the Mariners over/under is 76.5 wins, they're 100-1 to win the world series, and 10-1 to win the AL West. Actually, that 10-1 to win the west isn't a bad bet; I think the West looks pretty much even. I think Oakland was kind of lucky last year, and they've taken a step back, I'm not sold on the Angels offense, and Texas is Texas. I also like the over for the Mariners wins.

Gonzaga's Josh Heytvelt and some Redshirt Arrested with Marijuana, 'Shrooms

2007-02-10T12:12:00.000-08:00

The World Wide Leader is reporting that two Gonzaga basketball players, Josh Heytvelt and Theo Davis, were arrested last night on suspicion of drug possession, with the Spokane Review confirming the story, and reporting that Gonzaga officials will hold a press conference later today. The fact that two basketball players got arrested on drug possession charges isn't of much interest, particularly the fact that they had marijuana on them, but I'm pretty sure this is first time I've heard of an athlete arrested on possession of psychedelic mushrooms. I must say this greatly improves my opinion of Josh Heytvelt, who has already impressed me this year on the court, particularly the UW game in which he dominated Spencer Hawes for most of the game. The fact that he can do that and also have intimate knowledge of what it feels like to have all the bones in one's arms disappear, or have one's head detach from the rest of his body, is amazing. There's so many questions that this prompts:

-What do two basketball players who happen to be 6-11 and 6-9 do when they want to want to trip balls in Spokane, Washington? Do they go out into the woods? Roll around on the grass in the quad? Do they hole up in their dorm room listening to the Mars Volta? If shit gets too heavy, do they start chain-smoking? Afterwards, do they hug because the experience has brought them so much closer?

-How many other athletes, across the country, have done shrooms? Any hallucinogen? Marijuana and cocaine arrests are so boring; what players are doing the really cool drugs?

-Why the hell is possession of mushrooms a felony? I could maybe see sale or distribution, due to the dangers of mushroom identification, but why is simple possession a felony? It's the Pacific Northwest, there's trees and there's rain, so there's mushrooms everywhere. Does this go for all mushrooms? What if Heytvelt and Davis had just been foraging for chanterelles or morels? Maybe they're some of those weirdos who forage for mushrooms to sell to restaurants. Is that illegal? How do you draw a line between different varieties of mushrooms? Would one be prosecuted for accidentally picking the wrong mushrooms?

Anyway, it'll be interesting to see how this all goes down. Personally, I'd like to see the players get off scot-free because I like seeing people beat the asinine US drug laws. But that's just my opinion. I'm interested to hear what others have to say about this. Give me your thoughts in the comments.

Huskies over Cal

2007-02-08T21:56:00.000-08:00

Just finished watching the Huskies beat Cal at home, 79-71. It was the first time in a couple games that I've really got to watch the Dawgs closely which was nice. I'm trying to keep this short, so I'll just run through a couple things:

-Good game overall. Cal has given UW a lot of problems over the last couple years, so it's nice to get a win against them, even if they were shorthanded.

-Jon Brockman was an absolute manimal, 22 points and 14 rebounds. He's really holding the team together right now. I tried to focus on watching him on the defensive end, which you should try some time. He's an incredible position defender, and amazing at denying the ball in the post.

-Justin Dentmon made some asinine turnovers. What's annoying about that is that it wouldn't be that hard to fix. If he could tighten up on turnovers, he could be the best point in the Pac-10, but he needs to make the effort.

-Brandon Burmeister got a ton of minutes, and it looks like it was in place of Phil Nelson. I don't mind that at all, as I think Burmeister's a much better defender and rebounder, and probably an equal offensive player at the moment.

-Artem Wallace scored 8 points. I don't know how that's possible. He even made two free throws.

-Since my friend Jeremy pointed it out to me last week, I couldn't help but notice: Ryan Appleby is always the first guy back on defense. Even though he's not a good defender, it's not for lack of effort.

-Spencer Hawes looks like he's almost back to normal.

-Huskies are now 4-1 in their last 5 games. They close out the season with a pretty tough stretch, playing six ranked teams in seven games, but they get most of them at home. Should be interesting.

That's about it. Stanford on Sunday, should be good.

The Death of Vlog

2007-02-06T23:50:00.000-08:00

We have reached the most boring stretch of the year in terms of American sports. There is absolutely nothing of consequence occurring at the moment in the world of sports, so I would like to go on a tangent regarding a recent pet peeve of mine, a pet peeve currently confined to the Internet, but threatening to make its way into everyday discourse.

My issue is with the word "vlog," or rather the fact that "vlog" should not be an accepted new word. "vlog," meaning "video log," falls under a category of words known as blends, similar to compound words in that they are the product of combining two existing words, with the difference between a compound and a blend being that in a blend, part of the combined words is deleted. Examples of English blends are smog (smoke+fog), brunch (breakfast+lunch), and infomercial (info+commercial). It is most likely that "video" and "log" were blended into "vlog" as a means of equating it with the similar and related blend, "blog" (web+log). The major linguistic difference between "vlog" and "blog" lies in the laws of new word coinage; more specifically, that "blog" conforms to these laws, whereas "vlog" does not. The coinage of a new word must conform to possible English sound and spelling combinations, and "vlog" does not fit this profile. This is the reason why I can't make up a word along the lines of "ndbkae" because English words do not start with the combination of "nd" and don't string together the four consonants "ndbk" at any time. "vl" only occurs at the beginning of a word in English in the case of adoptions of foreign proper nouns, usually from Russian, such as the name "Vladimir" or the city "Vladivostok", which do not fall under the category of word coinage, as they already exist in a different language and are merely adoptions. "Blog" conforms to the rules of coinage, such as in words like "block" or "black." It would be reasonable to create a word that conforms to this form, such as "blick" or "bleck," which are possible new words, as long as one attaches a meaning and could get "blick" or "bleck" into common usage. "Vlog," though, should not be allowed to continue functioning as a free morpheme, and most certainly should not be accepted into the English language. Now, if it were to be "v-log" or "vidog" or "vilog," then I could get behind it as a new term, but until this change is made, I'm putting a stop to this nonsense "word." Anyway, v-logs are awful; utterly boring, self-indulgent tripe.

Husky Basketball Mid-Season Report

2007-01-28T14:30:00.000-08:00

Yesterday's victory over the OSU Beavers marked the halfway point in the Huskies' Pac-10 season. The conference season has been a disappointment to say the least, evident in the Huskies' 3-6 conference record, with the Huskies (hopefully) hitting rock bottom in a blow-out loss to Washington State just over one week ago. Acquiring a bid for the NCAA tournament will most likely require winning six or seven of their remaining conference games, and a strong showing in the conference tournament. The Huskies do have the benefit of having five of the remaining nine conference games at home, where the Huskies have been clearly superior throughout the season, with only one home loss. My intent in this post is to highlight the Huskies' strenghs and weaknesses, both on an individual and team level, through the use of statistics, as a means to evaluate the season performance and to illustrate what must be improved if the Huskies are to succeed in the second half of the Pac-10 season. Being the huge nerd that I am, I've tracked the Huskies statistics, both cumulative and in conference, throughout the season, and in addition to the traditional counting statistics, I've kept some more advanced, and hopefully revealing, metrics. I've kept most of the stats that John Hollinger provides to ESPN.com, including True Shooting Percentage; Assist, Rebound, and Turnover Rate; and also per 40 minute points, rebounds, assists, fouls, steals, and blocks. I wish I was better with Blogger and/or Excel, so that I could figure out how to attach my spreadsheet to this post, but as of now I haven't figured that out yet. For now, you'll have to trust me on the numbers. I swear I'm not lying.

Looking at the team numbers, the Huskies as a team have one real strength: rebounding. For the season, the Huskies have grabbed 57% of all rebounds, a very significant advantage. This number drops to 53.9% for conference games, a total that is still very good. In particular, the Huskies are great offensive rebounders, an attribute that greatly enhances their offensive game. What's interesting is that this advantage is mostly created by one player: Jon Brockman. For the season Brockman has a Rebound Rate of 19.7, meaning that he grabs 19.7% of all rebounds while he's on the court. By comparison, the next closest Husky is Artem Wallace, with a Rebound Rate of 12.9. Brockman's rebounding really carries the team, as Spencer Hawes has been a fairly inferior rebounder for a college seven-footer, though Brockman does receive some help from Justin Dentmon and Adrian Oliver, both of whom are very good rebounders for guards. Also of note is the complete lack of rebounding that the Huskies get from Ryan Appleby, who's posted a season Rebound Rate of 3.7. Dentmon and Oliver have accumulated rebounds at a rate of roughly 2.5 times better than Appleby.

The Huskies have also had one glaring weakness this season: defense. This has been a real source of disappointment, due to the early season emphasis from the coaches and players on the importance of defense. What's more, there doesn't seem to be a real obvious cause for this deficiency. The Huskies aren't clearly athletically inferior to their opponents, and they have plenty of size. If I had to venture a guess, I would blame a lack of communication and continuity, which is an issue with such a young team, though it is an issue that more commonly manifests itself on the offensive side of the ball, which has been one of the Huskies' strengths, though their offensive performance has been far from perfect. The defensive issues have been readily apparent in conference play in particular. In conference games the Huskies have yielded an opponent's True Shooting Percentage of 60.3%, which is an astronomical figure. True Shooting Percentage adjusts shooting percentage to account for three-pointers and free throws, and from personal observation, it does seem as if the Huskies have been victimized by the three point shot, with the Arizona game really sticking out in that regard. It seems like the Huskies yield an inordinate amount of wide-open three point attempts, with the main culprit being slow defensive rotation, which also is apparent in the amount of easy lay-ups and dunks they give up. This is one place where it seems like the Huskies have missed Joel Smith and the departed Harvey Perry. The Huskies' perimeter defense would really benefit from one or two more athletic bodies to add to the rotation. I also think that the Huskies increased reliance on the scoring of Ryan Appleby in conference play is a detriment to the defense, as Appleby doesn't strike me as a particularly adept defensive presence. I don't think it's in the best interest of the team to have Appleby on the court for 30+ minutes a night, but with the offensive contributions of Quincy Pondexter and others limited in conference play, Romar's hand is forced. I don't mean to denigrate Appleby's talents, as his offensive play in conference play (TSP of 66.3%, high assist and low turnover rates) has been a great aid to the team, but he does have holes in his game (defense and rebounding) that leave him best suited to a complementary rather than leading role. Whatever the cause may be, the Huskies have defensive issues that must be fixed if they wish to improve in the second half of conference play.

With the team strengths and weaknesses addressed, I'll move onto the individual players, and see what the stats have to say about their performance thus far.

Spencer Hawes: The Huskies best scorer has seen his performance drop off slightly in conference play, though through fault of his own. A bout with the flu and an ankle injury have limited him, and he still seems to be trying to get back to full strength. As much as I like his scoring repetoire and passing ability, he does have some holes in his game, much of which stem from a slight lack of aggressiveness and average athleticism. His rebound rate of 12.2 for the season and 11.1 in conference are very low for a seven-footer, and his shot-blocking abilities have dropped off in conference with the increased level of competition. I have one qualm with his offense: he doesn't go hard to the basket enough. In eight conference games he's only attempted 22 free-throws, compared to 101 field goal attempts. As good a foul shooter as Hawes is, if he could get that ratio closer to one free-throw attempt for every two field goals, it would really increase his scoring and overall offensive efficiency.

Jon Brockman: One of the few Huskies to raise the level of his game in conference. He's increased his offensive efficiency by hitting his free-throws more frequently, and he's also cut down on turnovers and fouls while taking a more prominent role in the offense. On a completely unanalytical level, he's an absolute joy to watch play, and I'm happy that he's the type of player who will stick around for four years.

Quincy Pondexter: His drop off in conference play has been pretty disappointing, but he also set the bar fairly high early season. His drop in scoring looks like one of the reasons for the struggles in conference, and he's been very turnover- and foul-prone in conference, which has led to less playing time. The Huskies need him to play better, because he's one of the best players on the team at creating his own shot and getting to the free-throw line, where's he's a bery good foul shooter. I wish he'd take more three-point attempts because he's been very accurate on three's all year.

Justin Dentmon: His level of play has risen from that of a season ago, but he's been erratic. Too often he's out of control, taking bad shots and making turnovers, which leads to a low TSP and a high turnover rate. He does seem to have figured out that he's not a very good three-point shooter, and has scaled back his attempts in conference to just one a game. Like Pondexter, when he's on, the team really benefits because of his ability to make his own shot and create easy looks for everyone else.

Ryan Appleby: Along with Brockman, Appleby has been one of the players to raise his game in conference. Appleby is a player who really benefits from the evaluative ability of TSP. Because he takes so many three-pointers, his field-goal percentage will tend to be lower than one would think with his shooting ability; with TSP though, his three-pointers are accounted for, and due to the fact that he's hitting a ridiculous 50% of his threes in conference, his TSP sits at 66.3% in conference. He's also a very good passer and rarely turns the ball over.

Phil Nelson: This guy can really frustrate me. It seems like he forgets that he's 6-8. Over half the shots he takes are threes, but he's only hit 29.4% on the season. Also, in 349 minutes this season, he's only attempted 3 free throws, which is really a pretty amazing ability to avoid getting fouled, and has not attempted a single free-throw in Pac-10 play in 183 minutes. His mid-range game looks to be pretty strong, but he doesn't use it enough. He has trouble asserting himself on offense, and seems content to let the game come to him.

Adrian Oliver: Intriguing. Another player who's improved with the start of the Pac-10 season. He's not a very good scorer or shooter, but he's a very good penetrator and passer, with the best Assist Rate on the team for the season and during conference play, where he leads by a wide margin (Assist Rate measures how many of the possessions that a player uses that end up as assists). In addition, he has the best assist-to-turnover ratio on the team in conference. He's a good rebounder despite his size, and one of the better defenders on the team, but he's very foul-prone, leading the team in fouls per 40 minutes on the season. I think he could be a beast in a couple seasons if his shooting improves, and he has improved his shooting in conference play, though he's also not taking shots as frequently.

Artem Wallace: Wallace has been playing more minutes as of late, though I'm not quite sure why. He can do one thing, rebound, especially on the offensive end, but lacks any other discernible skills. No offensive game to speak of, and every time he attempts a free throw an angel dies. If Romar ever sent in a player just to make really hard fouls in an attempt to injure opponents, ala John Chaney, Wallace would be the odds-on favorite.

Hans Gasser: A sentimental favorite of mine, due to his earnest expression while setting screens, and the fact that he once flipped off my ex-girlfriend at Earl's on the Ave. A decent rotation guy, he basically does what Mike Jensen did last year, stretching the defense with his ability to step out and hit the three, not really rebounding, and setting lots of screens. He doesn't turn over the ball, and he's a decent passer.

Brandon Burmeister: He's kind of been forgotten in conference play. All he does is shoot threes, though he does have good size for a guard and looks proficient rebounding and playing defense, but it seems like he's been the odd man out recently.

So that's the player-by-player breakdown. If I had to offer a solution for improving play in the second half of conference play, it'd be better defensive play, which should hopefully come with experience, and possibly the return of Joel Smith. Also, a number of players will have to pick up their level of play, most notably Quincy Pondexter and Phil Nelson, and Justin Dentmon has to be more consistent, which is going to be the result of an active choice by him to play more within his means. The Huskies will have to win the rest of their home games, including UCLA and Washington State, and then hope to get a couple road victories, with their easiest games coming at Arizona State and Oregon State, and may also have to win the game at Pittsburgh in three weeks. It's not impossible, but it won't happen unless improvements are made on both a team and individual basis.

Any other input is welcome. Drop your knowledge in the comments.

Husky Basketball Stats

(I'm pretty sure I figured out how to display the stats. Hopefully this link works. If not, I will have proved once again to be hopelessly inept when it comes to computers.)

NFL Playoffs: Conference Semi-Finals!!!

2007-01-11T18:58:00.000-08:00

Well, I went just 1-3 in the Wild-Card round, but I guess it could of been worse. I'm actually fine with the picks I made, and would probably make them again. It's kind of hard to predict that the Colts would come out and stuff Larry Johnson all day, while Trent Green decides to have one of the worst games of his life. The Eagles were in position to cover nearly all game long, but decided to let the Giants stick around and nearly make a comeback. As to the Seahawks, I'm just happy they won. I've come to the conclusion that they're kind of shitty, yet lucky, which I guess isn't that bad. Better lucky than good, right? I did nail the Jets-Pats game. I was annoyed early on when the Jets were keeping the game close, because I didn't want to see them get a cheap cover, but the Pats came through, thus ending the season of one of the least impressive 10-6 teams of all time.

The Jets had a lot of luck this season due to scheduling, etc., but I believe luck plays a much bigger role in the NFL than some would like to admit, and I believe the Jets have a young nucleus that could be very good in the future, if they play their cards right. Their offensive line is very talented and had two rookies on it this year, I like their receivers, and I think Chad Pennington will continue to win games if he's healthy. I like to make fun of how weak his arm appears to be, but at the same time I think that arm strength is one of the more overrated aspects in a quarterback. I thought it was funny when Jay Cutler's draft stock went up so much last year as the result of him having the strongest arm in the draft, based on velocity. How frequently does a quarterback throw a pass as hard as he possibly can in a game? Michael Vick has one of the strongest arms I've seen, but it doesn't matter when he's skipping passes to his receivers and forcing balls to Alge Crumpler in triple coverage. I'd rather have an accurate quarterback who makes good decisions as to when to throw the ball any day, and that's the category that Pennington falls into.

I really like this slate of second-round games. Every game is intriguing. I think Patriots-Chargers will be a great game, I love the combination of the Ravens defense and the Colts offense, I think Saints-Eagles could go either way, and I think Bears-Seahawks could be a strong upset possibility. The Bears seem to be moving backwards, while the Hawks seem to be improving, and they seem to have luck and momentum on their side. They also have experience playing in bad weather, which is important. Anyway, let's get down to the match-ups, with lines from Bodog.com, over/under listed after the teams:

Indianapolis (+4) @ Baltimore (42)

Best defense in the league against the best offense. What's more, Baltimore might be the best team against the run AND the pass, while Indy combines the best pass attack with one of the best run games. A definite unstoppable force versus immovable object game. I think what will be underlooked though, is the other main match-up, the Baltimore offense against the Colts defense. I think this is what will ultimately decide the game. Baltimore isn't great on offense, but they can do enough to win. Indy's defense, on the other hand, won't be able to do enough to win, in my opinion. I believe their defensive success in the first round against KC was mostly due to awful coaching by Herm Edwards, rather than their defense turning a corner. I think Baltimore will be able to grind the ball against Indy, and do enough through the air with play-action to keep Indy from stacking the front, as they were able to do against KC. My money's on Baltimore

New England (+4.5) @ San Diego (47)

I think this could be a great game. It seems like no one knows what's going to happen, even Vegas, which has given the official "We have no clue" spread, 4.5. San Diego's the best offense outside of the state of Indiana, but New England has a strong defense. I think the weakest of the four main units in this game is San Diego's defense. They're pretty strong against the pass, due to a great pass rush, but they have holes against the run, and the Pats are a strong running team. My pick all week long has been Whale's Vagina, but I've started to waver. It's the Marty Schottenheimer factor. He terrifies me. He's choked so often in the play-offs over the years, going way too conservative on offense to win. At the same time though, I don't know if he's had a team as strong as this one, and LaDainian Tomlinson is at the peak of his game. I'm going to stick with my initial reaction of Chargers, but I think this is my shakiest pick.

Philadelphia (+6) @ New Orleans (49)

This line has moved quite a bit this week; I think it opened at either 4 or 4.5. They've played once this year, with New Orleans winning 27-24 at home. I get the feeling that this game might come down to a field goal, so I would take Philadelphia and the points. I think either team could win this outright, and six points is just too large of a line. Both teams are really good offenses, and I think Philadelphia might have actually improved with Donovan McNabb out, not because Jeff Garcia's a better quarterback, but because it makes the offense more reliant on Bryan Westbrook. Philly could be scary next year with McNabb in, as long as Andy Reid remembers to get the ball to Westbrook more often. As good as Philly is, the Saints are probably their equal on offense. I do think Philly is slightly better defensively, though losing CB Lito Sheppard to injury really hurts them. I think New Orleans can have a lot of success in three and four wide receiver sets, though they have injury issues of their own, as Joe Horn may not play. I think there's going to be a lot of points in this game, and it'll be exciting as hell. Definitely watch it if you have the chance. I think it'll come down to a field goal.

Seattle (+9) @ Chicago (37)

As I mentioned last week, I am a shameless Seahawks homer. I don't think I'm irrational when it comes to them, but I may be a tad over optimistic in my evaluations of them. That said, I think they have a legitimate shot in this game, and I think they're a great pick to cover. I have worked to suppress the first Bears-Hawks game from this season, and ultimately, I don't think that examining that game is a very good method of looking at this one. These are very different teams than they were in week 4, when they first met. Chicago is not nearly as scary on defense with Tommie Harris and Mike Brown out, and Tank Johnson's various, ahem, distractions. The loss of Harris creates a cascade effect through the entire defense; they don't get as effective of an initial surge up front with him out, which hurts against the run and the pass. Without as strong a pass rush from the front four, they need to blitz more, which leaves them susceptible to the run and to big plays passing. On offense, Sexy Rexy Grossman has lost his confidence, and their passing game has been scaled back significantly, which actually benefits a Seahawk defense that is prone to giving up big plays. I was pretty impressed by the Seahawk defense last week, which really only gave up 13 points (Dallas returned a kickoff) to a very strong offense. They reminded me of the defense of last year, good at bending but not breaking, clutching up in big situations, pressuring the quarterback, and swarming to the ball. I think that the impact of losing Marcus Trufant and Herndon is overstated, because neither corner played very well at any point this year. As a team, the Hawks have been much more consistent the last few weeks, and they seem to be steadily improving. I think they should, at least, be able to keep this game close, and I think they could win it outright. Plus, there's a good chance it snows, which makes any game much cooler and important looking. Seahawks and the points!!! And I like the over!!!

Well, there you go. I plan on being firmly planted on the couch all weekend, drinking America's finest beer of 1893, Pabst Blue Ribbon. I think this could be a memorable weekend. Now, if only Sexy Rexy Grossman could take some pointers on "gunslinger's mentality" from Tony Romo.

Projecting the Mariners in 2007

2007-01-06T15:10:00.000-08:00

Hello there. I have been trying to avoid the Mariners as a subject of discussion as of late, due to the saddening ineptitude of their front office this offseason, but with the recent struggles of the UW basketball team, and the absolutely atrocious KC-Indy game on right now, I have turned to my trusty companion, the Interwebs, in an attempt to find solace regarding the prospects of the upcoming baseball season for the M's. One of my favorite aspects of the offseason is making projections for the upcoming season, and a simple search of the webs reveals that there is clearly no shortage of widely available forecasting systems for MLB. Of course, the gold standard for forecasting systems is PECOTA, published by Baseball Prospectus, but alas, it is yet to be unveiled for this upcoming season, and due to the proprietary nature of its formuli, I would feel squeamish about reproducing too much of its data in this freely available forum. The good news, though, is that there are a number of freely available forecasting systems that are also quite good, among them ZIPS, from Baseball Think Factory, Tango Tiger's Marcel, and a new system I've discovered this year, Chone, produced by Blogger's own Chone Smith, who has really done some impressive work this offseason, despite being an Angels fan. Chone ran r-correlations for the various forecasting systems about a month ago, and came up with these results for offensive projections for these three systems: ZIPS, .684, CHONE, .677, and Marcel, .664. Earlier research by Tango Tiger revealed that the strongest r-correlation a projection system can have is about .73, and all three of these systems come reasonably close to that figure.

With the individual player forecasts available on these sites, it's fairly easy to make a reasonable projection of a team's preformance for next season, particularly an offense's performance, just by making some predictions for playing time. A team's cumulative OPS corresponds amazingly well to their runs scored; i.e., a team with an OPS of 750 will score about 750 runs, within 10% in either direction. Last season, the Mariners' OPS was 749, and they scored 756 runs. The Giants produced an OPS of 746 and scored 746 runs. 15 teams in MLB last season had OPS and runs scored figures that differed by less then 20. This measure works really well for middle-of-the-pack offenses, which is where I figure the Mariners to be. This measure does not work as well when predicting a team's pitching performance, but it can still be used to make a rough estimate of runs allowed, and with the runs scored and runs allowed figures, one can estimate a team's Pythagorean record (explained here for the uninitiated). As it currently stands, I would expect the Mariners line-up for next season to look something like this, with my predicted PA's for each player in parentheses:

CF Ichiro (700)
3B Adrian Beltre (650)
DH Jose Vidro (500) (goddammit)
LF Raul Ibanez (650)
1B Ritchie Sexson (600)
RF Jose Guillen (500)
C Kenji Johjima (500)
2B Jose Lopez (600)
SS Yuniesky Betancourt (600)

This seems about right, though I have no clue what they plan on doing with Ben Broussard. I hope they don't plan on playing Vidro at 2B because he's useless in the field at this point. There was some discussion about him playing first, which makes me think they'll move Broussard for nothing, as Bavasi seems to enjoy doing that. Here's how I figure the bench distribution of PA's will look, if they keep Broussard:

Broussard (300)
Rene Rivera (ugh) (150)
Willie Fuckin' Bloomquist (200)
Mike Morse (100)
Jeremy Reed (150)

These are complete guesses, as they will probably make another terrible move that will alter the bench, most likely involving Reed or Broussard, but I can't predict the future. These estimates give the M's 6200 total PA, about what they had last year. Now, here's the projected OPS figures for each player, by CHONE, ZIPS, and Marcel:

Ichiro: 770, 789, 794
Beltre: 811, 779, 833
Vidro: 780, 726, 761
Ibanez: 762, 800, 812
Sexson: 842, 824, 854
Guillen: 795, 776, 800
Johjima: 785, 771, 774
Lopez: 775, 737, 739
Betancourt: 695, 697, 739
Broussard: 792, 805, 811
Rivera: 643, 545(!), 726
WFB: 697, 607, 665
Morse: 696, 715, 800
Reed: 741, 728, 725

Each system basically agrees on Ichiro, Johjima, Broussard, Sexson, and somewhat surprisingly, Reed. More variance on Beltre, Ibanez, and the young guys not named Reed. So here's the team OPS for each projection system: CHONE: 771, ZIPS: 757, Marcel: 784. The three systems come up with pretty similar numbers. The Mariners can be expected to score between 700-850 runs next season. Out of the three projections, I think the ZIPS numbers seem too pessimistic, and the Marcel numbers a bit optimistic. Marcel is the least sophisticated of the three systems, as it is just a three-year weighted average regressed to the mean, and adjusted for player age, and I think it may be a bit bullish on Beltre, Sexson and Guillen.

These run figures aren't too bad when you consider the scoring environment of Safeco. I don't think the Mariners problem will be offense. It's too bad they'll feel compelled to throw a bunch of AB's at Vidro, and the bench is going to be ugly, but the M's should be able to score enough to win. The biggest problem I see is the lack of depth. An injury to one of the big guys would really kill the offense.

My methodology for the pitching portion of the projection will be different than the hitters' portion. Because OPS allowed doesn't correlate to runs allowed the same way as OPS does to runs scored, I'm going to take the projected ERA figures by the three forecasting systems, then create innings pitched projections for each pitcher, and finally, add on the average unearned run figure for American league teams from last season (60). I'm going to err on the side of caution on the innings pitched figures due to injury concerns, etc.

Starting Pitchers (ERA by CHONE, ZIPS, Marcel), and innings projected by me:

Felix Hernandez (3.34, 3.71, 3.95) 190
Jarrod Washburn (4.14, 4.45, 4.47) 180
Miguel Batista (4.58, 4.62, 4.47) 180
Horacio Ramirez (4.85, 5.13, 4.54) 140
Cha Seung Baek (4.58, 6.02, 4.38) 100
Jake Woods (4.54, 4.73, 4.61) 100

Wow, that's an incredibly mediocre rotation. If it wasn't for the presence of Felix, I'd be tempted to call it a contender for worst rotation in the league. Even with Felix, it won't be very good. The worst part is that they had to pay good money to acquire two of these guys, then had to trade Rafael Soriano to get another. Washburn and Batista are basically league average starters with durability, while Ramirez is a little worse than that and injury prone, and Baek and Woods are replacement-level. The bullpen should be pretty good once again, mainly due to the presence of JJ Putz, but the lack of Rafael Soriano and the uncertainty about Mark Lowe means the unit probably won't be as strong as last year (projected ERA by CHONE, ZiPS, Marcel), and innings projected by me:

JJ Putz (2.84, 2.88, 3.66) 70
George Sherill (3.24, 3.40, 4.31) 50
Chris Reitsma (4.35, can't find his ZiPS, 4.99) 60
Eric O'Flaherty (4.88, 4.35, 4.50) 50
Julio Mateo (4.11, 3.97, 4.35) 60
Sean Green (4.41, 4.79, 4.50) 50
Justin Lehr (4.46, 5.11, 4.88) 70
Sean White (no projection, 5.45, no projection) 50
Mark Lowe (4.61, 4.44, 4.10) 30

I used the ZiPS figure across the three systems for Sean White, and used a midpoint between CHONE and Marcel for Reitsma's ZiPS figure. I suspect these nine to get almost all the bullpen innings this season, barring injury. I guess I should throw in Jon Huber, too, but I'm going to be lazy. I don't really know what to expect with Lowe. Information on his injury has been incredibly hazy. I would guess he'll be able to pitch around the All-Star break. This only adds up to 1380 innings, and most teams pitch about 1440 innings, so I'm just going to tack on 60 innings of last years' league average ERA. This isn't exactly a scientific process, and there's a good chance that these innings could be at a much higher ERA, but they could also be lower, due to variance in performance in small samples. So here's the runs allowed projections, by system: CHONE: 740, ZiPS: 783, Marcel: 769.

Runs scored, runs allowed, by system:

CHONE: 771, 740
ZiPS: 757, 783
Marcel: 784, 769

With these numbers we can calculate expected Pythagorean wins:

CHONE: 84.3
ZiPS: 78.2
Marcel: 82.6

These numbers aren't nearly as bad as I thought they would be (that could be the Mariners 2007 slogan: "not nearly as bad as you thought"). Things working against the M's: Mike Hargrove, susceptibility to injury, lack of a bench, lack of minor league depth, inability to make in-season moves, inability to beat the A's, irrational Willie Bloomquist love. I think when all is said and done, the M's will be about .500, and be fairly boring in the process. I love this team!

NFL Playoffs

2007-01-04T15:51:00.000-08:00

The first week of the NFL playoffs will soon be upon us. I closed out the NFL season on a pretty strong run of picks, riding nearly all underdogs to an 11-5 week 17, after going 8-8 in week 16. My final regular season record: 135-119-2. Sixteen games over .500, for a winning percentage of 53.1%. In addition, I predicted the winners of six of the eight divisions; I doubt anyone alive hit more than that, because no one thought New Orleans would win the NFC South over Carolina, the consensus preseason Superbowl pick, hardly anyone picked the Eagles in the East, and no one thought Baltimore would be as good, or Pittsburgh as mediocre, as those two teams were.

I think I started to figure this year out by the end of the season, as in the last four weeks I went 39-25, hitting nearly 61%. Not too bad for my first full season of picks. Here's the thing: if I had theoretically placed twenty dollars on every single game of this NFL season, here's how much money I would of won: $185, barely ten dollars a week. Unless you can consistently hit at least 55% or more of all games, betting on everything is definitely not a good strategy. It's much better to pick your games and capitalize on skewed lines, such as is the case with the pre-season over/under lines, which tend to be routinely off, where I ended up hitting 7 out of the 10 picks I recommended, with the help of the late season collapse of the Dallas Cowboys (I loved, absolutely loved, to write that sentence). Or just pick every underdog, if it's another year like this one.

Now that the playoffs are here, it's time to really prove one's mettle. These are the games that count. I'm starting to sound like Joe Theismann. Here's my picks for the first round match-ups, with the glorious return of extended commentary!!! (Lines from USA Today):

Kansas City (+6.5) @ Indianapolis (51)

I like this game's potential a lot. It'll be built up as Peyton Manning versus Larry Johnson, but there's a lot more going on here. Indy still has the best offense in football, and it seems like they have for a long time now, but their defense has severely regressed this season, especially against the run. Kansas City isn't quite as good on offense as they have been in the past, but they still have Larry Johnson, arguably the best running back in football not named LaDainian Tomlinson. It's a shame that Herm Edwards has so stubbornly handed LJ the ball 416 times on the year, basically guaranteeing a catastrophic injury next season, but we'll talk about that when next season comes around. Indy's defense is about average against the pass, and maybe the worst in football against the run, while KC is good running or passing the ball, though they probably don't throw the ball enough. KC's defense is fairly mediocre against the run and the pass, while Indy is the best passing team in football, and one of the better running teams, though this fact is often overlooked. I think there's a number of possible outcomes to this match up. I could see KC run the ball effectively and keep the game close, or maybe even sneak out a win by effectively shortening the game and keeping the Indy offense off the field, or I could see Indy be too overwhelming for the KC defense and win easily. I get the feeling that Indy's sand-bagged at times this year, and may have some tricks up their sleeve, but on the otherhand they've been unable to stop the run even when they know it's coming. I don't think I'm comfortable taking Indy and laying the points when they can't stop the run. KC might not win outright, but I think it'll be close. Kansas City

Dallas (+3) @ Seattle (46.5

Really, you can stop thanking me for predicting the collapse of Tony Romo. I don't have anything against the guy per se, but we live in a time when there's just too much media hype (as evidenced by this blog) to fairly evaluate players, especially young players who get the phenom tag. Because outlets like The Worldwide Leader feel the need to push storylines for the sake of ratings, rather than offering evenhanded analysis, you end up with the short-lived phenomenon of Tony Romo, greatest quarterback to ever live. Ever. In History. The same thing happened with Rex Grossman, certified gunslinger, earlier in the season. Of course, the storylines end up being false, because no one alive can live up to the hype the media has created, the scouting reports and defensive schemes around the league get caught up to date, and the players end up crashing back to Earth. Full disclosure: I am a shameless Seahawks homer; I have picked them in every single game this season, which has frequently been to my prognosticating detriment, but I like their chances in this game, even with no one around to play cornerback. Dallas may have a very good offense, but they're regressing at the worst part of the season, and they're on the road against one of the best home-field advantages in the game with a mistake-prone young quarterback. On defense, I think the Hawks should be able to throw against the Dallas secondary, which just isn't very good against the pass, and should be able to grind it out against a front seven that's having injury issues. Anyway, I think the Hawks are due to finally play up to their potential, at least for this game. Seahawks!!!

New York Jets (+9) @ New England (37.5)

I've noticed this line creeping downward since it opened, which I think is just asinine. I think the Jets are lucky to be in the playoffs, which is mostly the result of their easy schedule. I like Chad Pennington, but I just don't think the Jets are in the same class as the Pats come playoff time. The Pats are one of the most balanced teams in the league, and should be able to run the ball all day against the Jets. New England

New York Giants (+6.5) @ Philadelphia (46.5)

I have a feeling that this may be a bad week for New York football fans. The Giants have been one of the more schizophrenic teams in the league this season, looking both great and awful at times, but mostly awful lately. They're a terrible team to wager on in the playoffs: shaky quarterback, prone to really stupid penalties, Tom Coughlin seems like the type who would be the first person to bring up the possibility of cannibalism if trapped somewhere with a group of people, etc. They're not a bad team, especially the offense when it's clicking, but the seem like the exact opposite of the kind of team that comes together for a playoff run. Plus, they killed me in that first round game against Carolina last season. That was absolutely brutal. Not going to let that happen again. I'm a big fan of the Philly offense; Jeff Garcia works in that system, and I think they've benefited by relying on the run more with Donovan McNabb out. Philly

There's my picks for the first round of the playoffs. feel good about them, though I'm a little wary picking three favorites after an entire season of underdogs killing. I like the over for both NYJ-NE and NYG-Philly.

Anyway, UW-Arizona tonight, at Hec Ed. Watch it. Hopefully the Huskies will continue their home dominance. We'll see.

Husky Front Court Dominance/Random Notes/NFL Picks, Week 16

2006-12-22T20:59:00.000-08:00

If you're a UW basketball fan, your mood has lifted substantially in the last week. With Wednesday's 88-72 win over LSU and tonight's 80-51 win over Weber State, the Huskies have done a lot to dispel many of the concerns created by last week's thrashing at Gonzaga. After that lackluster loss, the Huskies have responded with two very complete games, playing strong defense, while Jon Brockman and Spencer Hawes have led consecutive dominant performances by the front court. After combining for 42 points and 26 rebounds on Wednesday, Brockman and Hawes came back with 41 points and 19 rebounds tonight against an overmatched Weber State team. Both players seem to have made significant strides forward since the Gonzaga, especially Hawes, who's seemed to have overcome some early season inconsistency with his last two games.

Hawes has exhibited a breathtakingly versatile offensive repertoire, both with his back to the basket and squaring up to the hoop, and using both hands for a variety of hook and jump shots. At one point against LSU, he banked in a turnaround jumper high off the glass with Glen Davis in his face, a shot I think only one other player in basketball today could make: Tim Duncan. I don't think Hawes is the same kind of overall player as Tim Duncan, but I do think he has the kind of complete offensive game that you see in a post player only a couple times a decade. One of the things that separates Hawes from Duncan as a total package is rebounding, something Duncan is very good at, while Hawes is merely average. He's not a bad rebounder by any means, but he appears impassive, willing to let other players collect rebounds he could grab. Any deficiencies in Hawes' rebounding in the last two games, though, has been picked up by Jon Brockman, who's had 26 rebounds in the last two games.

At times last year I thought that Brockman was a little disappointing, in comparison to the reputation he carried as an incoming recruit, appearing overly tentative and unable to create his own shot. Any disappointment I had with him has dissipated this year, as he has made great strides in his game, while also taking on a leadership role with the team. In roughly the same minutes per game as last year, Brockman's increased his scoring by nearly four points per game, while grabbing three and a half more rebounds per game. His offensive game still isn't very advanced, and his free-throw shooting has seemingly regressed, but he makes up for it with aggression and toughness, and has shown a willingness to create his own shot this year, while exhibiting greater range on his jump shot. The strong points of his game are rebounding and defense, and his rebounding this year has been excellent. His Rebound Rate, a stat created by John Hollinger which measures the percentage of total rebounds collected by a certain player, is 22.46 through the first ten games, meaning Brockman grabs 22.46% of all the rebounds, offensive and defensive, while he's on court. For the sake of comparison, if he were in the NBA, Brockman's Rebound Rate would lead the league. Though he obviously would not be able to rebound as well in the NBA as he can in college, I believe Brockman's rebounding is an NBA-level skill, and I don't see why he couldn't be as effective as someone like Reggie Evans or Eduardo Najera in the NBA, with more offensive upside.

The breakout performances of Hawes and Brockman in the last two games has really increased my confidence in the Huskies chances this season. There aren't many post presences in college basketball like the combination of Hawes and Brockman, and their presence also makes the Huskies less reliant on outside scoring, a skill which is much more subject to variability in performance. A team is much more likely to have an off night if they rely on 3-point shooting than if they can consistently score in the paint. I'm still wary about the Huskies lack of experience on the road heading into the conference season, but Hawes and Brockman should help out the transitional process.

Random Notes:

If you didn't get a chance to see Gilbert Arenas put up 54 points tonight against the Suns, you really missed out. I can't think of a more interesting player, on and off the court, as Arenas is right now.

Last night's Minnesota-Green Bay game was absolutely brutal to watch, especially if you had Green Bay and laid three and a half points. Every gambling rule in the world said take Green Bay: Rookie quarterback starting on the road in his first start, Brett Favre's maybe, kinda, last start at home, dome team in a cold weather city in winter, etc. So what happens? Minnesota, despite an absolutely awful performance from Tavaris Jackson (10-20 for 50 yards), get bailed out by a blocked field goal and another field goal rejected by the upright, and a Brett Favre pick-six. At least Minnesota lost, guaranteeing they hit their "under" for the season, as I had predicted.

Here's the NFL picks: Kansas City (+4) over OAKLAND, Tennessee (+4) over BUFFALO, NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over New Orleans, ATLANTA (-7) over Carolina, Washington (+3) over ST. LOUIS, Indianapolis (-9) over HOUSTON, Baltimore (+3) over PITTSBURGH, CLEVELAND (-3) over Tampa Bay, DETROIT (+6) over Chicago, JACKSONVILLE (-2.5) over New England, SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over Arizona, Cincinnati (+3) over DENVER, SEATTLE (+3.5) over San Diego, Philadelphia (+7) over DALLAS, and New York Jets (+1.5) over MIAMI.

Season Greetings; by the way, this is also my first post written from my home computer since the power came back on this morning. It's a Christmas miracle!

Power Outage!

2006-12-20T14:42:00.000-08:00

I wasn't able to post my picks this week because my power's been out since last Thursday night. Yes, my power is still out, for nearly one week at this point. I went 10-6 on the week, bringing me to 116-106-2 on the season, and 20-12 the last two weeks. It's pretty damn hard to do much better than .500 on the season, so I'm happy that, barring a disastrous last two weeks, I should finish above .500.

NFL pro bowl picks have been released. Seahawks Walter Jones, Mack Strong, Julian Peterson, and Lofa Tatupu made the team. I think the Mack Strong selection is a little dubious, as I don't believe he's been nearly as good this season, and is partly responsible for the drop off in the Seahawk run game. I don't get too worked up over the so-called "snubs," because I believe the whole Pro Bowl/All-Star game process is incredibly flawed and mostly a popularity contest, but why is Tony Romo on the team? Has anyone watched him play the last two games? I realize that it's not exactly a stellar year for NFC quarterbacks, but Tony Romo is a Pro Bowler after playing five good games and two and a half bad ones.

With the NFL season winding down, I think it's about time to look at my preseason predictions, and see how I've done. I went through the preseason over/under lines and picked the teams I thought were good shots to go either over or under, and I also made my playoff predictions. I arrived at these ten teams as good bets to differ significantly from the preseason lines: Tennessee (5.5), San Diego (9), Chicago (9.5), Minnesota (8), New Orleans (6.5), Dallas (9.5), Philadelphia (8.5), Seattle (10.5), Arizona (8) and St. Louis (7). I liked the over for Tennessee, San Diego, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Seattle, and the under for the other five teams. As it currently stands, the Tennessee, San Diego, Chicago, and Arizona picks are already correct with two games to go. I'm already wrong on the New Orleans under pick and the Seattle over pick. If Minnesota loses one more game and Philly wins one more, those picks will be correct. My Dallas pick will be incorrect if they win one more. St. Louis is still up in the air. I think they'll most likely push. So assuming these scenarios play out, I'll probably go 6-3-1 on the preseason over/under picks. Not too bad. You'd make a lot of money hitting two-thirds of your picks. Looking at my picks, the one I missed by the furthest is New Orleans. I thought they'd be under 6.5 wins, and they currently have 9 wins. I was way off on the Saints, and I'm not afraid to admit it. The other picks I have or most likely will miss on: Seattle and Dallas. I made the Dallas pick at a time when Drew Bledsoe was their quarterback, and I think they'd definitely would've gone under 9.5 wins if he'd started all season long. I think I've overestimated Seattle all season. You can't really predict the injuries they've sustained, but I thought they'd be a much better defensive team then they have been. At this point in the season, I think it's safe to say that they're not the elite team I thought they'd be.

Here's my preseason playoff picks: for the AFC, Pittsburgh, Indy, New England, San Diego, Kansas City and Cincinnati. For the NFC, Chicago, Carolina, Seattle, Philadelphia, Atlanta and Washington. If the playoffs started today, Indy, New England, Baltimore, San Diego would be the division winners in the AFC, Dallas, Chicago, Seattle, and New Orleans in the NFC. The AFC wild cards winners will most likely be two of these teams: New York Jets, Cincinnati, Jacksonville and Denver. The NFC wild card winners will most likely be Philadelphia and one of the current 7-7 teams: the Giants and the Falcons. I'll most likely hit four or maybe five of the AFC teams, five if KC can sneak in to the playoffs, and three or maybe four of the NFC teams. The teams I've been furthest off on are Washington and Pittsburgh. Washington lost LeVar Arrington, and has had some injury issues with Clinton Portis and Shawn Springs, but to drop from a playoff team to 5-9 seems pretty drastic. I thought Pittsburgh would be much better than they've been, though I think they've been hit with some bad luck. Or karma. Just saying. Everyone alive missed the boat on Carolina. Preseason, some people were ready to hand them the Superbowl. I guess that's why you actually play out the season. My preseason Superbowl pick, Seattle over San Diego, may end up being just half right. San Diego looks like the real deal, though I think it would be a stretch for the Seahawks to return to the Superbowl. Remember though, you heard it here first, all the way back in August, San Diego Chargers Superbowl bound.

Anyway, I'm spent. Here's my pick for the Thursday game: GREEN BAY (-3.5) over Minnesota. Minnesota's starting a rookie quarterback (Tarvaris Jackson) on the road, and I don't think Jackson's very good anyway. Green Bay should win easy. And watch LSU-UW tonight; it will (hopefully) be a good game.

Mariners Continue to Slowly, but Surely, Kill Me

2006-12-14T10:52:00.000-08:00

If you don't know yet, the Mariners have traded Chris Snelling and Emiliano Fruto to the Washington Nationals for Jose Vidro, pending the physical. This is just about as bad a trade as you can make. It does not make any sense. It reminds me of Johnny Cochrane's famous Chewbacca defense: Why would a Wookie, an eight-foot tall Wookie, want to live on Endor, with a bunch of two-foot tall Ewoks? That does not make sense! This trade just does not make sense. There is really no defense for making a trade like this. None. My initial reaction is confusion and disbelief. How can Bill Bavasi possibly be this inept? How does this man have a job as General Manager of a Major League Baseball team? Why, God, Why? What have Mariner fans done to deserve this fate? It does not make sense. It doesn't address any of the issues the Mariners have. They don't need a second baseman, and Vidro really can't play the position anymore, so they traded for a designated hitter who's not particularly great at hitting. I could possibly understand trading Chris Snelling if you have major concerns about his tendency to get injured, but Vidro also has an extensive injury history, so you're not trading for the reassurance of durability. Once again, it does not make sense. This trade also severely hampers your outfield flexibility. Do they plan on playing Jose Guillen every single day? How about 36-year old Raul Ibanez? I guess this means they keep Jeremy Reed around, who Mike Hargrove has absolutely zero confidence in. That's sounds like a good idea. Was this trade made for financial reasons? No, because they're agreeing to take on $12 million of Vidro's contract for the next two seasons in exchange for two players who would have made close to league minimum next season. It doesn't make sense. Is it part of a youth movement? No, because they acquired a 32-year old DH for a 25-year outfielder and a 22-year old reliever. Well, maybe they're expecting a better performance from Vidro than they would have gotten from Snelling. But once again, no. Snelling last year: .250/.360/.427. Vidro last year: .289/.348/.395. Snelling outhit Vidro last year. He has better power and better plate discipline, and his average should improve next year. It doesn't make sense. Chris Snelling is very likely to outhit Vidro in 2007. Both players are injury-prone, but Snelling is coming into his prime, while Vidro is in the decline phase of his career. Chris Snelling is cheap, while Vidro is not. And, hey, while we're at it, how about throwing in an interesting relief prospect? Let's just throw away one of our only commodities, power bullpen arms. That's a great idea. And don't do anything do fix the DH/1B log jam. In fact, add another player to it.

The worst part of this trade, in my opinion, is that it's not the end of the offseason manuevering. Another trade is coming. They still have to do something about Sexson, Broussard, et al. and they're looking for more starting pitching. It's absolutely terrifying to know that Bavasi is out there trying a make another trade. Anything's possible at this point. I wouldn't bat an eyelash over Felix Hernandez, Jeff Clement, and Adam Jones for Kenny Rogers. Or Corey Koskie. Maybe Bavasi could coax Mo Vaughn out of retirement. It disgusts me how set this team is on being mediocre. They're perfectly content to settle for 75 to 81 wins as long as assholes from Microsoft continue to throw away money for Terrace club seats. Here's what I would suggest to true M's fans: stay away. Don't give the M's a dime, as it's a tacit acceptance of this bland, mediocre product. Sometimes the machine becomes so odious that you must throw your body on the gears to make it stop. Let's blow up the good ship Mariner. I'm goddamn sick of this front office fucking up this team, while simultaneously bogarting the future. Honestly, it may be time to adopt another team. It's not worth the effort of trying to care for this terrible product. What's the point in trying to muster the energy, time and money required to support this team? Wouldn't I be better off just ignoring them? How much better would my quality of life be if I didn't subject myself to watching 60 combined starts by Horacio Ramirez and Miguel Batista? Or 300 Willie Bloomquist at-bats? Or 180 Ritchie Sexson K's? Or Rene Rivera's .184 OBP? Or Julio Mateo home run allowed? It does not make sense. I'll still support Felix, and the continued brilliance of Ichiro!, and I'll marvel at the defense of Beltre and Betancourt, but this team is not worth the effort required of true fandom. Thank you, Bill Bavasi, for making me just not care. The only positive consequence of your continued ineptitude is that it will guarantee that you never have another GM job. It would be criminal for you to be allowed to alienate another fan base. It would not make sense.

By the way, I like the Seahawks in tonight's game, -10.5. For some reason.

Huskies-Gonzaga: Yeah, that didn't go so well

2006-12-10T14:38:00.000-08:00

The UW-Gonzaga game last night, well, it didn't go so well. The overall impression that I received was that the Huskies were just not ready for the game. It's a lot to ask of a young team to play their first road game against a team like Gonzaga, and it was pretty obvious that the Huskies weren't prepared for a road game of that magnitude. One of the major issues with the Huskies so far has been their slow starts to games, and that's an issue that will be compounded on the road. The biggest surprise for me was how poorly the Huskies played on defense. I expected the turnover problems and general sloppiness, but the Huskies were just awful on defense last night, especially in the first half. They were really slow on defensive rotations, which resulted in a ton of easy lay-ups for guys like Matt Boldin, and kick-outs for open threes by Derek "the Weasel Boy" Raivio. The only players for UW who impressed me were Jon Brockman and Quincy Pondexter, due to their overall composure. No one else appeared to be prepared for the game. Justin Dentmon was absolutely brutal, a real nightmare game for him. Adrian Oliver was in foul trouble and couldn't do much. Ryan Appleby was invisible. Spencer Hawes, even though he ended up with a good stat line, looked like he had forgotten how to play basketball for the first fifteen minutes of the first half; he was called for two traveling violations and an offensive foul, and also attempted two bank shots that didn't even draw rim. Gonzaga's Josh Heytvelt thoroughly outplayed Hawes. Hans Gasser didn't bring his normal gusto for setting screens, which was part of the reason why the shooters couldn't get open. That was a pretty difficult game to watch as a Husky fan; I felt like the Huskies issues were really exposed, and you have to wonder if they'll be able to get their game together before LSU comes here, and before conference play starts. I still have a lot of confidence in this Husky team, and I think they'll be really good by the end of the season, but I hope they turn it around soon and don't dig themselves a hole they can't get out of.

Also, just because I happen to be at the computer when I normally wouldn't, here are some NFL observations: do you think think Mike Shanahan would like to take back the Jay Cutler experiment about now? Hmm, yeah, in hindsight it wasn't the past decision to pull your starting quarterback during the middle of the stretch drive to the playoffs and replace him with a rookie who had yet to take a snap in an NFL game. What surprised me about that decision was how many pundits where prepared to crown Cutler's ass, to paraphrase Denny Green. Rookie quarterbacks just don't perform well, even the one's who turn out to be good quarterbacks eventually. And there's a definite difference between the situations of Matt Leinart and Vince Young and Cutler's situation. Leinart and Young have no pressure on them; they're rookie quarterbacks on shite teams, and they're not expected to do much. Cutler was put in with the expectation that he'd give Denver a better chance to reach the Superbowl, which is a completely unreasonable expectation; if you look at rookie quarterbacks in the last twenty years, Ben Roethlisberger is the only one to have even a modicum of success, and that was in a situation where he was heavily protected by a great run game and great defense. Cutler's situation is somewhat analogous, but at the same time it isn't: Roethlisberger was inserted into the starting lineup in week 2 or 3, if I recall correctly, and that was as the result of an injury to the starter and back-up. Cutler's promotion was purely elective, and come's at a crucial junction in the season. Just not a good decision by Shanahan.

Indianapolis must be the worst good team in quite some time. Jacksonville absolutely killed them today, running all over them. Anyone can run on them, and the entire league knows it at this point, and it's the perfect remedy for the Indy offense, by keeping them off the field and making them unable to get in a rhythm. I don't see Indy being able to win in the playoffs. They've still got a good shot at a first-round bye, and could possibly win their second-round game, but do they have any chance when the conference championship comes around? San Diego and Baltimore would destroy Indy, and so would New England if they get another shot at them. Cincinnati would be the only potential AFC playoff team against whom I'd give Indy the edge.

I wonder if Sports Illustrated is regretting picking Carolina-Miami for the Superbowl? There can't be a more disappointing and underachieving team than Carolina, and the "Jake Delhomme as good quarterback" ship has sailed.

I think we'll soon enter be entering the "Vince Young as overrated quarterback" era; he's just not a very good passer yet, but his running prowess covers it up. I must admit that his run to beat Houston today was absolutely awesome, though. I actually think he could end up as a more successful running quarterback than Michael Vick, due to his size. Vick just seems like he'll eventually suffer a horrific injury, and he also seems much more reliant on his running than Young, to the detriment of his passing game.

Well, I've got to finish watching the potential Hawk comeback. This team is really killing me. Seahawks just blew it. God I hate this team.

End of Short Period of Mariner Optimism subsides; and NFL Picks

2006-12-09T14:02:00.000-08:00

I should of known it was too good to be true. Everything was shaping up so well for the Mariners going into the Winter Meetings; I should have taking it as a sign that they'd mess it up somehow. There's just too many morons running the organization, from Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong up top, and down to Bill Bavasi and Mike Hargrove, for this offseason to go perfectly. In the span of a couple days, the Mariners went from rumors of acquiring Manny Ramirez from the Red Sox or Tim Hudson and Adam Laroche from the Braves, to getting Horacio Ramirez from the Braves for one the M's top potential trading pieces, Rafael Soriano, and letting Jason Schmidt walk right by them and sign with the Dodgers. Now, I'm not privy to any special insider info on a trade like this; it may be possible that Soriano's elbow and shoulder will burst into flames six months from now, or that he's terrified to walk on grass since getting hit by a Vladimir Guerrero line drive, or that Ramirez has had a number of bionic limbs installed since his last mediocre season and now consistently throws effortless triple digits strikes for nine innings at a time. Somehow I don't find these scenarios to be that likely. Anyway, if Soriano does have substantial injury concerns, it would appear during his physical and the trade would be voided, and the M's would be stuck with damaged goods. I think it's more likely that Bavasi has once again undervalued one of his players, while simultaneously overvaluing an opponent, and has once again made a very poor trade. The Mariners have shown an ability all offseason long to acquire potential back of the rotation starters for free; they already have Cha Seung Baek and Jake Woods, picked up Justin Lehr as a minor league free agent, traded for Sean White in the Rule 5 draft, could still potentially acquire John Thomson, unless they had an issue with his injury profile. My point is, one doesn't have to give up anything to acquire these kinds of players; to give up a valuable pitcher like Soriano is asinine. Last season, Soriano was about twice as valuable as Ramirez, and only pitched 60 innings to Ramirez's 76. 2005 was the only season in the last three in which Ramirez was as valuable as Soriano was last season; the caveat in this fact is that Ramirez had to throw 202 innings that year to be as valuable as Soriano is in 60 innings. This was just not a good trade. What makes it even worse is the fact that all the information I've heard about Mark Lowe's elbow injury is very scary. There's the possibility that it's career ending, and even if it's not, he'll most likely be out until mid-season. The Mariners went from having one of the best end of the bullpen groups to having a very suspect one. Get ready for another 78 win season.

Here's the NFL picks: Baltimore (+3) over KANSAS CITY, Atlanta (-3) over TAMPA BAY, Minnesota (+1) over DETROIT, Tennessee (+1) over HOUSTON, New York Football Giants (+2.5) over CAROLINA, New Orleans (+7.5) over DALLAS, Buffalo (+3.5) over NEW YORK JETS, Indianapolis (pk) over Jacksonville, WASHINGTON (+1) over Philadelphia, CINCINNATI (-10.5) over Oakland, New England (-3.5) over MIAMI, SAN FRANCISCO (-4.5) over Green Bay, Seattle (-3) over ARIZONA, SAN DIEGO (-7.5) over Denver, and Chicago (-6) over ST. LOUIS. I like the over (43.5) for SF-GB, over (37) for NE-Miami, over (40.5) for Philly-Wash, and the under (42) for Tennessee-Houston.

Detritus

2006-12-05T16:56:00.000-08:00

The winter meetings have started for MLB, and all the rumors I've heard suggest that the Mariners will potentially be very active. It wouldn't surprise me if they sign Jason Schmidt in the next couple days, and from what I've heard, all the Manny Ramirez rumors floating around are in fact true, though not very likely. The Red Sox number one target for Ramirez is the LA Dodgers, due to their absolutely stacked minor league system. The Mariners sound like more of a back-up plan at the moment, and any trade involving the Mariners would most likely be a three way deal involving either the SF Giants or Atlanta Braves. What I've seen is that the Sox would want Adam Jones, another prospect, and either Putz or Soriano for Ramirez. Acquiring Ramirez would necessitate dumping Ritchie Sexson's salary, which is where the Giants come in, taking Sexson and giving the M's Noah Lowry. I believe the Giants would also probably send a prospect to Boston. This would be...interesting. I'm not really sure what to like about this deal. I really like Ramirez, but I don't know how much I want him and a massive contract into the future. I'm also not sure about Lowry, who was pretty bad last year, though he had success the two previous years. I don't really want to lose Putz, who was one of the best relievers in the league last year, and who will stay cheap for a few more years. I also believe Adam Jones is a future stud, the kind of guy who you'll regret losing in a couple years. I think I need some more time to digest this, and I also need to keep in find that it won't likely happen.

I recently alluded to a secret project I was working on, and I figure it's time to unveil it. I just finished writing an initiative about genetically engineered foods, and I've started another blog around the initiative and the process in getting it onto the ballot for next year's election, called Food Democracy. I don't plan on neglecting this blog for that one; rather, I'll be pulling double duty. If you have any questions, feel free to ask, or just check out the other blog, which should have pretty regular updates for at least the next month or so.

Remember, there's another NFL game this Thursday, Cleveland (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh. I really like Cleveland's chances in this game. They've been one of the most improved teams in the league the last couple weeks, and I think they can surprise the Steelers, or at the least, keep the game close. My pick is Cleveland.

The Broncos-Seahawks game last week was an odd one. I knew going into it that the Hawks had a really good chance, mostly due to the fact that everyone alive was grossly overrating Jay Cutler before he had thrown an NFL pass, but I can't help but feel that the Seahawks just aren't very good, despite beating a good team on the road. If it wasn't for all the fumbles and Cutler handing the Seahawks a touchdown on that Plummeresque floater he threw to Darryl Tapp, the game wouldn't have been close. The Hawks couldn't stop the run for most of the game, had trouble moving the ball against Denver's D, and overall, I think they were a little lucky to escape with a win. There are definitely signs that the team is improving, and they are now 5-0 when Hasselbeck and Alexander are both starting, but they could very easily be 6-6 or worse right now if it wasn't for Josh Brown. I am happy with the improvements being made, namely that the offensive line is looking a lot better, despite Sean Locklear and Robbie Tobeck still being out with injuries. Rob Sims has looked really good in the playing time he's been given, and Chris Spencer gets better every week it seems, while Tom Ashworth isn't as awful as he was earlier in the year. I love that Nate Burleson has found his niche on punt and kick returns, vastly improving our return game, an important area of the game that is often overlooked. The Hawks have been an awful return team for several years in a row, and I was angry when they cut Willie Ponder earlier in the season to make room for the return of Gibran Hamdan, because Ponder was really good on kick returns. I want Burleson to succeed, and he's been really great on returns since being inserted there, and it's nice that the Hawks don't need to take up extra roster space with a return specialist. I also think the pass defense has looked a lot better the last couple weeks, not giving up so many long pass plays, but at the same time the defense is really getting torched by the run, especially giving up long runs. I wonder if they lack the size on the defensive line to be good against the run, which is where Marcus Tubbs' injury hurts them, and as good as Julian Peterson is as a pass rusher, I think they sacrifice against the run when he's used as a down lineman. What's good for the Hawks is that they still have time to gel before the playoffs, and they'll be able to coast toward the end, as they've got the division basically wrapped up. They have a legitimate shot at a first round bye, also, and a home playoff game, which would almost guarantee a conference finals berth, considering the Hawks home field advantage. All in all, not too bad, considering they've had Hasselbeck and/or Alexander out for seven games this year.

NFL picks+Bloomquist rant

2006-11-30T17:42:00.000-08:00

I can't believe I forgot to mention this yesterday, but I didn't mention that the Mariners gave Willie Fuckin' Bloomquist a contract extension. Why? I just don't get the fascination with his decidedly mediocre brand of local white guy scrapiness. There's hundreds of minor leaguers who can play several positions poorly will not hitting and stealing some bases, and do it for the league minimum. I know they're not paying him too much, but I just don't see the 700,000 dollar premium we pay him for being from Port Orchard.

The Mariners actually made a semi-interesting signing today, Justin Lehr, picking him up on a minor-league contract. He pitched pretty well for Nashville in the PCL last year. He's a sinkerball pitcher who'll get some strikeouts, has good control, and keeps the ball on the ground. He has some difficulty keeping the ball in the park, but Safeco's the perfect place for pitchers like that. He should be in the running with Baek and Woods for the four and five starter spots. Due to the ridiculous free agent market, I wouldn't mind seeing the M's go into next year with a couple pitchers like this, rather than crippling themselves with huge contracts for players who aren't that good. I do think it's important though that they improve their outfield defense by bringing in someone other than Raul Ibanez to play leftfield. I like Raul's offense, but at this point in his career he's much better suited for DH or first. Safeco has possibly the largest leftfield in baseball, which makes it very important to have a good fielder out there to take away extra-base hits. I'm still holding out hope for the M's to trade Ritchie Sexson, most likely to Baltimore, mostly to move salary, but to also possibly snag a pitcher or two.

Okay, I wrote the last two paragraphs a couple days ago, and there's been a lot of activity from the Mariners since then. Today they've signed Jose Guillen, and they're also close to signing John Thomson; the M's are currently reviewing his medical files. Both of these contracts are one-year deals with options for the second year, which I really like. I hate being attached to long term contracts with a lot of money tied up in them, because it seriously hinders your roster flexibility. The M's may get serious bargains if either of these players has the kind of season they're capable of, and if either guy sucks, you can cut him and not have to worry about wasting too much money. I actually mentioned Thomson in my post on what the Mariners should do this offseason, lumping him in with guys like Bruce Chen, etc. who are coming off bad years or injuries and who can be had for cheap and possibly be serious contributors. Thomson's ideal contribution is probably of the highest level of the guys I mentioned. He's a groundball pitcher who should benefit from the Mariners excellent infield defense, he can still get strike outs, and has pretty good control. His major issue is injury, but he can be reasonably expected to give you 100-150 innings of pretty good pitching, and possibly more, while increasing the overall organizational depth.

Jose Guillen is in a very similar situation to Thomson. He's coming off Tommy John surgery, and played terribly last year. He's definitely a flawed player, but he's got good power, plays good defense and has a tremendous arm, one of the best in the league. I could see him hit .270/.330/.450, which would be a pretty good season at Safeco, especially for a guy with defensive value. An outfield of Guillen, Ichiro, and Chris Snelling would cover a lot of ground while being nearly impossible to run on. The only issue I have with this deal at the moment is that it creates a serious log jam of corner outfield/first base/designated hitter types. I'm hoping this means that the M's move either Ben Broussard or Ritchie Sexson. Otherwise, I get the feeling that Mike Hargrove's irrational love of veterans will result in Chris Snelling being the odd-man out, which would suck because he's an absolute hitting machine, and one of the Mariners' only serious OBP threats. I would like the end result to be Guillen in left, Ichiro in center, Snelling in right, Ibanez at DH, and either Broussard or Sexson at first, with one of them traded, preferably Sexson due to his enormous contract. So far though, I really like what the Mariners have done so far this offseason, with there still being a strong chance that they sign Jason Schmidt. A rotation of Schmidt, Felix, Washburn, Thomson, and Lehr/Baek/Woods would be a pretty good one.

With the prospects of the 2007 Mariners looking brighter every day, let's get on to the NFL picks, abridged version: Minnesota (+9.5) over CHICAGO, PITTSBURGH (-7.5) over Tampa Bay, Arizona (+6.5) over ST. LOUIS, Indianapolis (-7.5) over TENNESSEE, MIAMI (Pk) over Jacksonville, NEW ORLEANS (-7) over San Francisco, WASHINGTON (-1.5) over Atlanta, CLEVELAND (+5) over Kansas City, Detroit (+13.5) over NEW ENGLAND, San Diego (-6) over BUFFALO, GREEN BAY (+1) over New York Jets, NEW YORK GIANTS (+3.5) over Dallas, OAKLAND (-3) over Houston, Seattle (+4) over DENVER, and Carolina (-3) over PHILADELPHIA. I like the Indianapolis-Tennessee over (47), Kansas City-Cleveland over (35.5), St. Louis-Arizona under (46.5), and NYJ-Green Bay over (42.5).

Weird Thursday NFL games messing up my internal gambling schedule

2006-11-29T23:46:00.000-08:00

I don't know what to think about these new Thursday NFL games. It throws off my internal clock, and I can't even watch the games as a non-NFL network subscriber. Hmm. I don't know. Anyway, tomorrow's CINCINNATI (-3)-Baltimore, two teams that have been erratic, but generally good, especially Baltimore, who've recovered from an early funk to play really great the last few weeks. I went 10-6 last week, 9-6-1 the week before, and I've been riding underdogs pretty hard. I'm going to go with Baltimore. Cincinnati's defense has been pretty bad at times, and Baltimore's been running the ball well. I think Baltimore wins it outright. Rest of the picks later this week. 89-85-2 on the season.

Huskies won again tonight, looking pretty good in the process, but against Idaho at home, not exactly a tough matchup. The Dawgs have one more home tune-up against Southern Utah before heading to Spokane to play Gonzaga. Should be a good game. Adrian Oliver really picked up his game beginning with the Eastern Washington game, and he's been added to the starting line-up in place of Ryan Appleby. I like the move because Oliver's a much better defensive player, while I like bringing a shooter as good as Appleby off the bench. It looks like Joel Smith will be out for up to two more months after re-injuring his foot. Too bad for him, though it does ease the UW rotational crunch. It looks like Harvey Perry is going to be the odd man out, right now.

This week continued the bad contract cavalcade in Major League Baseball. Here's my candidate for the worst of the week: Danys Baez to Baltimore for $19 million over 3 years. There's not a middle reliever alive worth that much, and Baez isn't even particularly good anymore. I think the Kei Igawa posting fee by the Yankees was pretty ridiculous. It's twice the posting fee the Mariners paid for Ichiro, for an unproven pitcher. I guess they can do what they want. There was actually two good signings this week: David Dellucci to the Indians for 3 years/12 Mil and Gregg Zaun re-signing with the Blue Jays for 2 years/7.25 Mil. These are contracts that might actually be worth the money. Imagine that. I'm starting to think the Mariners would be better off not signing anyone big, so as not to lose draft picks as compensation, let Meche walk so they can pick up the compensation pick, and start investing heavily in the draft and international signings. One of the effects of the new CBA is slotted bonus figures for draft picks, which should bring down signing bonuses overall. If the free-agent market will continue to be insane, often your best bet is to completely opt out of the system, rather than following the insane GM's of the world.

NFL Picks/Continued MLB INSANITY!!!

2006-11-24T13:19:00.000-08:00

It was a good Thanksgiving, both in terms of the holiday and my picks, as I went 3-0 and hit the under for the KC-Denver game. In the world of MLB, the insane contract bonanza rolled on, with Carlos Lee receiving $100 million over six years from the Houston Astros. Remember, the Astros could of spent that same amount roughly two years ago and would've been able to keep Carlos Beltran around, someone who would actually be worth that money. Last year, Carlos Lee and Raul Ibanez were basically equally valuable players, by about every advanced metric available; Lee was worth about ten more runs by VORP, Ibanez was worth about 8 more runs by Runs Created, Lee had a .293 EQA, Ibanez .288. Neither player is good on defense and both are borderline defensive liabilities. I guess you could give a very slight advantage to Lee. Now, would you want to pay Raul Ibanez $17 million dollars for the next six years? No way in hell. I just don't see how MLB GM's don't see how crippling it is to give massive, long-term contracts to players who aren't that good. Your roster flexibility is sacrificed, you block young players, who are the most valuable players in baseball due to the inequitable financial situation for players before they reach free agency. And does Carlos Lee seem like the type of player who will age particularly well? There's been a lot of success in the market for aging fat guys. Anyone remember Mo Vaughn? he aged like a fine wine. This offseason is going to be infamous within a year or two.

With this off my chest, at least until the next terrible contract comes along, on to the NFL picks. Once again, I'm going with the abridged versions. Anyone who wants clarification on any picks can ask in the comments. Here we go, home teams in CAPS: Jacksonville (-3) over BUFFALO, Houston (+5.5) over NY JETS, BALTIMORE (-3) over Pittsburgh, Cincinnati (-3) over CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA (-6) over Arizona, San Francisco (+5.5) over ST. LOUIS, New Orleans (+3) over ATLANTA, WASHINGTON (+4) over Carolina, Chicago (+3) over NEW ENGLAND, INDIANAPOLIS (-9) over Philadelphia, New York Giants (-3) over TENNESEE, SAN DIEGO (-13) over Oakland, and SEATTLE (-9.5) over Green Bay. I really like Chicago over NE, and Jacksonville over Buffalo. As far as the over/unders, I like the over (36) on Carolina-Washington, the over (42.5) on Cincinnati-Cleveland, and the under (43) for San Diego-Oakland. I've been killing on the over/under lately, hopefully I can keep it up. Happy football weekend, and watch the Husky basketball game tonight if you get a chance. Rodney Stuckey for Eastern Washington is a pretty remarkable talent, and the Dawgs are awesome.

Husky Basketball Preview

2006-11-24T01:20:00.000-08:00

I know that previews are typically done before the season, but I feel like doing my Husky preview four games into the season. Anyway, early non-conference play isn't that important. After watching the Huskies basketball team’s first four games, I’m going to say something that could be viewed as premature or rash: this is the most talented team in UW history. I’m not saying they’re the best UW team ever (yet), but this team is absolutely stacked. What Lorenzo Romar has done in his tenure is nothing short of amazing. In the four years I’ve been at UW, the team has been transformed from a laughingstock to a powerhouse, a truly elite program that is here to stay. Their rotation this year goes twelve men deep. They’ve gone from a team that didn’t have anyone taller than 6’8” to one with six rotation players 6’7” or taller, without having to sacrifice athleticism, and still being able to play their signature up-tempo style. Everyone on the team can shoot; Ryan Appleby, Justin Dentmon, Phil Nelson, Harvey Perry, Quincy Pondexter, Adrian Oliver, Joel Smith and Brandon Burmeister have legitimate three-point range. Even Spencer Hawes and Jon Brockman have 17-foot range, and Hans Gasser can step back and hit a three, while also providing unlimited unintentional comedy with his overly-earnest setting of screens (you kind of have to see him to understand what I’m saying). The only non-shooter, Artem Wallace, is an undersized five who’s an absolute beast on the boards. Combined with Hawes, Brockman, Gasser, and Pondexter, this is the best rebounding group Romar has had, and even Dentmon is a great rebounder for an undersized guard. On defense, their length and quickness allows them to trap and overplay on passes, and they have the first dominant shot blocking force with Hawes since Todd MacCulloch.

As far as the incoming freshmen group, Pondexter and Hawes have been really impressive thus far. Nelson and Oliver seem to be works in progress. I’ve heard a lot of comparisons of Pondexter to Bobby Jones, but I don’t know how apt that comparison is. They have similar body types and athleticism, but Pondexter is a much more accomplished offensive player than Jones ever was in college. Jones didn’t have three-point range until his junior year, and really didn’t have any game off the dribble until his senior year. Pondexter already has both of these aspects in his offensive repertoire, plus a lot more confidence on the offensive end than Jones had.

Hawes already has a good complement of post moves, and his passing ability as a center is astounding, the best I’ve seen from a college center since Andrew Bogut. Early on it actually seems that he’s looking to pass too much, which has resulted in a lot of forced passes and turnovers. This is something that will be easily alleviated with experience. I’ve been really surprised by just how nimble he is, and how confident he is handling the ball. On the defensive end, he’s a dominant shot-blocker who also manages to stay in position well and doesn’t get into foul trouble. These are very rare traits to have.

Nelson and Oliver have shown talent, but both have been erratic so far. Nelson is a very good outside shooter and surprisingly athletic, but has looked tentative on offense, and kind of lost on defense. Oliver is a good penetrator and very active on defense, but prone to trying to do too much and forcing plays on offense, rather than letting the game come to him. He’s also very good at grabbing rebounds in traffic for a guard. My initial impression is that Oliver will get more minutes in the rotation than Nelson, backing up Dentmon for 10-15 minutes a game. I think as the season gets going and the rotation gets set at nine or ten players, Nelson, Burmeister and Wallace will get squeezed for minutes.

Because of their youth, this team will no doubt struggle at points this year, especially early in the season, and we've already seen this with the struggles early in the game against Northern Iowa and Sacramento State. Though it seems like a bad omen to be struggling against Northern Iowa and Sacramento State, one must remember that Northern Iowa is a returning NCAA tournament team that will most likely be back again this year, while Sacramento State is a team with a lot of talent and athleticism, albeit somewhat raw. Both teams also have a lot of experience, and are teams very reliant on a “system,” especially Northern Iowa, and those kinds of teams give young teams problems. What’s important is that the team gets time to gel before they hit conference play, and I think their schedule will allow for that, even with tough games against Gonzaga and LSU on the non-conference schedule. By the end of conference play, I think this team will be pretty damn good, and peaking at the right time of the year. This should be a sweet sixteen team again, and a team with enough talent to keep up that level of play into the future.

Thanksgiving football picks/More awful MLB signings

2006-11-23T00:02:00.000-08:00

It's technically Thanksgiving right now, so "happy Thanksgiving" to anyone who may read this. This is my favorite holiday, by far, and I'm looking forward to doing some overeating. Not to brag, but I'll put my mother's Thanksgiving meal up against all-comers. It would definitely be my last meal if I was on death row.

Last week's picks went pretty well: 9-6-1, taking me back to .500 for the season. I'm just going to put up my picks for the Thanksgiving games right now; Friday or Saturday I'll have the rest of the picks up. An extra game's been added this year to the Thanksgiving slate. In addition to the games Detroit and Dallas always play, Kansas City-Denver is also playing. Apparently KC's owner got screwed over with regards to the Thanksgiving game back in the 70's, and this is a correction of such an egregious injustice.

Here's the picks: Miami (-2.5) over DETROIT, DALLAS (-11) over Tampa Bay, and KANSAS CITY (Pk) over Denver. I like the under (38) for KC-Denver. Detroit is just awful, while Miami looks a little better each week; I'm going reverse psychology on Dallas because they kill me everytime I pick against them, and I think KC can slug it out with Denver and win. They've got one of the best home-field advantages in the league.

By the way, I was debating which contract was worse, Soriano, 136 for 8, or Juan Pierre 45 for 5, when along comes Gary Matthews, Jr. to trump them both. 50 million dollars over 5 years for a player who's had one good season, and did it while playing in the best offensive environment in the American League. The only difference between Gary Matthews, Jr. last year and previous years when he was merely a good fourth outfielder was a completely unsustainable jump in batting average. In 2005 Matthews hit .255. Last year he hit .313. Looking beyond the deceptive stat of batting average, it becomes clear that Matthews was basically the same player in 2005 and 2006. In 2005, in 526 PA's, he hit line drives 16.8% of the time, struck out 17.1% of the time, walked 8.9% of the time, and homered 3.2% of the time. In 2006, in 690 PA's, 18.8% line drives, 14.3% K's, 8.4% BB's, and 2.8% HR's. He hit 2% more line drives, didn't strike out quite as much, walked slightly less, and had nearly identical power numbers (.181 ISO in 2005, .182 ISO in 2006). 2% more LD's and 2.8% fewer K's is not enough to correspond to a 58 point jump in batting average. Here's the reason for the change from Gary Matthews, fourth outfielder, to Gary Matthews, borderline all-star: in 2006, 34.9% of the balls he put in play became hits, while in 2005, only 28.3% did. This is a massive jump that basically explains the jump in batting average, and why he suddenly became "good" in 2006. And still, is the season he put up last year, even if he could do that year in and year out, which he can't, worth 10 million dollars a year for the seasons in which he'll be 32, 33, 34, 35, and 36? One must also account for the drop in production that will result in moving from a great hitters environment to a decidely mediocre one. Also, even if he's a defensive asset right now, will he be one when he's 36? This is definitely the worst contract of this offseason so far. I'm just glad that it's being given by a team in the Mariners division because this contract should end up as a real albatross.